2010 Season

My blog is once again up and running but now at its own domain: www.bebackbykickoff.com. Please take a look, comment to your hearts content, and tell football fans you know.

Thanks for reading.

-Will

The Super Bowl

February 7, 2010 marks the first time that the NFL #1 seed plays since the city of Los Angeles had not one, but two football teams. Just a few short weeks ago, the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints were a combined 26-0 and their coaches (of course) were brilliant. Then the Dallas Cowboys came to the Superdome, on the shoulders of their rushing attack… and the streak was history. The Colts and Saints then rested their players and threw in the towel to close out the regular season and their coaches (of course) were crazy. Since then, the Colts have won back to back games convincingly while the Saints took the Arizona Cardinals apart before Brett Favre threw the Vikings’ season right into Terry Porter’s hands. Yet it’s the Saints, not the Colts who’ll leave Miami with the title.

New Orleans has the best passing offense in the league. Drew Brees has fallen off from his 2008 season but can still take advantage of mismatches downfield. The Saints are still undefeated when Jeremy Shockey plays a down and have a plethora of weapons with Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, and anyone else Brees picks as the key to beat his opponents. Indianapolis hasn’t demonstrated an ability to stop the pass this season, and the Saints will expose them.

Now I know what anybody who has read my blog is thinking right now. I’ve knocked the Colts all season, predicting them to miss the playoffs after about a .500 season. So let me use some statistics to make my case. Of the teams with the top 10 highest passing yardage totals this season, the Colts have only faced the #1 ranked Texans and the #3 ranked Patriots (Manning, Curtis Painter & Co rank 2^nd). Everyone remembers how well the Patriots threw the ball against Indianapolis- accumulating a 20 point lead before their lack of a running game caught up to them. What some people may be forgetting, however, is just how effective Matt Schaub and the Houston Texans were at certain parts of both contests. The Texans took over for the first time in the 2^nd quarter down 13-0 and outplayed the Colts for almost the entire rest of the game. Houston put together 3 drives that accumulated over 80 yards and had an equally promising 61 yard drive cut short by the clock. Indianapolis needed two interceptions and a goal line fumble to beat the Texans at home… and still could only squeak out a win by the skin of their teeth as Kris Brown missed a 42 yard field goal that would’ve forced overtime. Three weeks later, the Texans jumped out to a 17-0 lead and gradually gave it away as their offense evaporated for 34 minutes of football. Houston exposed Indianapolis’s weak pass defense even after the Texans lost Tight End Owen Daniels for the season. New England exposed them too. The Colts’ relatively perfect season would not have held up against Newi Orleans’s schedule.

Let’s take a look at how the Saints and Colts have done against common opponents. Both teams played the Rams, Cardinals, and the AFC East (though the Colts didn’t really play against Buffalo). The Colts were clearly more impressive against St. Louis; they won 42-6 while the Saints were a few feet from being handed their first loss. The Colts beat the Cardinals 31-10 while the Saints slaughtered Arizona in the playoffs 45-14. Considering Arizona was coming off a playoff win when they played New Orleans compared to having a still-developing developing running game when they played Indianapolis. Onto the AFC East. Even though there was a 43 point differential between the two final scores, we’ll count Buffalo as a wash because the one position (QB) at which the Colts typically have the best player in the league was occupied by Curtis Painter. The Colts traded possessions with Miami and won on the last play of the game… back when Chad Pennington had yet to be replaced. On the other hand, the Saints surrendered a 24-3 lead to the Dolphins by the 2 minute mark of the first half (Saints were to kick off to start the second half too), before rallying to win 46-34. They showed heart and resilience that separated them from other top teams such as the Vikings and Cowboys. Against the Jets, the Saints got a few lucky breaks and ran out the clock against the best defense in the league when they still had a healthy nose tackle, their key to stopping the run. Last week, Indianapolis was outplayed by the Jets in the first half and saved by the disappearing act that was the Jets’ offense in the second half… not to mention some VERY questionable officiating. Finally, who can forget the late games each team had when the Patriots came to town. Until the Patriots abandoned their downfield passing game, the Colts had been getting crushed; the Saints on the other hand, put together four consecutive touchdown drives. So while the Colts looked much better against St. Louis, it was the Saints who were more impressive against Arizona, New England, Miami, Buffalo*, and Rex Ryan’s Jets. Advantage New Orleans.

Again, Manning’s been playing some really incredible football this year. When Indianapolis finally decided to beat the Jets through the air, the Jets’ lack of healthy depth at cornerback was exposed. The Saints do not have the same problem. On the other side of the ball, I really can’t imagine the Colts putting up much of a fight against the Saints’ passing attack. The Saints have too much firepower. We’ll see Dwight Freeney as a pass-rushing specialist on 3^rd and long, but he won’t make enough of a difference to slow down the Saints. Don’t expect the Saints to need turnovers to keep it close either. I’m certain that Jim Caldwell realizes how often the Saints have stripped their opponents and emphasized that to his team during practices.

Saints +6 over Colts

Final Score: Saints 41 Colts 24

Best Value Bets for:

MVP

1. Jeremy Shockey (25/1)

2. Devery Henderson (22/1)

3. Drew Brees (43/20)

4. Dallas Clark (12/1)

5. Donald Brown (28/1)

HM: Field (12/1)

Other bets I like:

Completion Percentage: Peyton Manning UNDER 67.5

NO Safety -1200

I’d like to caution anybody thinking of betting on Reggie Bush for game MVP. Only do it if you think these assumptions will be met:

1. Player has a reasonable shot at making the key difference in the game

2. You believe the player has a better chance at being the difference than any professional analysts suggest

Ok, #1 is met without question. Reggie Bush can change the pace of the game on a single play… but there will be huge public money on him. It’s not a great bet.

It’s going to be a great game. Enjoy it.

Conference Championship Picks

NFC Domination

Before I mention that my 2-2 record and loss in my bold pick last week means I need three consecutive wins to finish with a winning record on the season, allow me this sentence to gloat about going 4/4 on prop picks in last week's entry.

Jets +8 7-11 (1-2) over COLTS 5-12 (2-3)

By my standards, the AFC Championship game pits Rex Ryan, the best active defensive mastermind in football, against the one mind capable of thwarting his best laid plans, Peyton Manning. While Manning has gradually regressed from his best football of the season, he still is playing at a remarkable level. Peyton has turned the tightest coverages on the field into high percentage throws. Occasionally, Manning’s aggressive throws have translated into interceptions and given the opposing team a chance to keep pace.

I predicted that this would be the season where the Colts’ streak of postseason appearances would finally come to an end. Indianapolis has made a mockery out of my forecast by rolling to 15 wins in the 15 games in which they’ve played to win…. And yet I’m still not ready to group them with the class of the NFL. In their division, the Colts were given two games despite being outplayed by the more talented Texans, squeaked by the Jaguars twice, and demolished the Titans with Kerry Collins while still handily defeating them with Vince Young. The Colts finished 2^nd in their division last year which gave them an easy win over Denver and amazingly also a win over the Baltimore Ravens who had plenty of opportunities to win. The Colts played four games against the AFC East; they miraculously came back from way behind to beat the New England Patriots in the memorable “4^th and 2” Sunday Night showdown and squeaked by against a then winless Miami Dolphins team to cover the 3.5 point spread by half a point. Both Buffalo and the Jets defeated Curtis Painter. Finally, the Colts were blessed with four relatively easy games against the NFC West. Only San Francisco came close.

Despite having a losing record against their counterparts in the AFC, I feel the NFC has been a much stronger and more dangerous conference this season. The four top five teams by my power rankings who do not play in Indianapolis all come from the NFC. It’s also worth mentioning that in their seven games against the top half of my rankings, the Colts only beat the 14^th ranked Cardinals by a convincing margin. Against the 7^th ranked Ravens, 8^th ranked Jets, 10^th ranked Patriots, twice against the 13^th ranked Texans, and against the 15^th ranked 49ers, the Colts faced problems.

Today, Darrelle Revis will really test Manning with his coverage on Reggie Wayne. It’s up to Rex Ryan to find a way for the Jets to contain Clark, Garcon, Collie, and Addai. Brian Schottenheimer has to help out by avoiding three-and-outs and situations where Mark Sanchez can let the Colts back into the game. I envision a defensive struggle and thus can’t lay eight points against the Jets. The third and fourth best team remaining will put on an exciting show.

Jets 17 Colts 16

SAINTS -4 10-7 (0-2) over Vikings 6-11 (2-3)

The Dallas Cowboys had been rolling on the wheels of their running game and came to a sudden halt when they faced the dangerous defensive line of the Vikings. Don’t expect the Saints to face the same problem. Unlike Dallas, New Orleans has the personnel for a pass-first offense and needs a running game to maintain the balance of the offense rather than to set the tone. The Saints remain undefeated with Jeremy Shockey, who should play despite injury. I don’t think Minnesota can match up with New Orleans’s offensive firepower. If they do somehow manage to contain every Wide Receiver, look for the running backs to pick up first down after first down.

There are a number of factors that lead me to pick New Orleans.

1. Sean Payton vs. Brad Childress

2. Superdome Crowd Noise

3. Saints WRs too overwhelming for Vikings CBs

Minnesota has an outstanding team complete with a veteran playmaking quarterback, dangerous running backs who can score on any play, a number of capable Wide Receivers (though somewhat depleted without Percy Harvin at full strength), and a defense that has kept them among the league’s elite. On paper they are the most complete team in the NFL. In Minnesota, this game would be a lot closer. I expect New Orleans to beat Minnesota in the biggest game to ever be played in New Orleans before defeating the winner of the AFC Championship by multiple scores.

Saints 31 Vikings 17

NFC Winner -3.5 over AFC Winner

Divisional Round Picks and Rooney Rule Opinion

Playoffs: 1-3 (1-0)

SAINTS 9-7 (0-2) -7 over Cardinals 8-9 (5-3)

Shockey TDs +1.5 over Warner TDs

While they certainly have shown they know how to win this season, the New Orleans Saints haven’t won a football game in over a month. The first drive will set the pace of the game. I’d love for the Saints to open the game up with a play action pass looking deep. Arizona’s defense faces a difficult opponent in Drew Brees and would love for the Saints to help them out with some penalties early on. Jeremy Shockey returns to the field for the Saints- who are 13-0 with Shockey. The Saints have one on the highest scoring defenses in football. The Cardinals showed that they are vulnerable with a lead, and I think they will let this game get out of hand too fast. I’m expecting a collection of Sports Center catches for Shockey and a decisive New Orleans victory. The NFC Coach of the Year is the winner of this game, in my opinion.

Ravens 11-5 (5-3) +6.5 over COLTS 5-11 (2-3)

Manning TDs -1.5 over Flacco TDs

The Ravens are the more physical team and have the advantage on both lines of scrimmage. They have the best remaining running game in the playoffs and should not be receiving 6.5 points to a team that’s won only 7 of their 16 games by a margin of 4.5 all season without playing a team that ranked higher than Baltimore in my end of season power rankings. The Ravens will get the help from the defense they need to allow the offense to pound away. I like Baltimore with the money line that can be found at anything up to 9/4 but feel that Peyton Manning is always a threat to win a game late.

It’s worth mentioning that while Favre and Romo have been criticized for many of their late season performances, the biggest drop in performance I’ve seen this season has been from Peyton Manning. Through the first half of the season, Manning quarterbacked eight games and had zero multi-interception performances. In the second half of the season, Manning played six full games and had four multi-interception performances. Admittedly, he made up for the interceptions in all four of those games, but Baltimore is less forgiving. As this great article by The Onion did, just ask Tom Brady.

VIKINGS 5-11 (2-3) -2.5 over Cowboys 9-8 (5-2)

Favre TDs -2.5 over Romo TDs

This game features the two most balanced offenses in the remaining field of the playoffs squaring off against two very worthy defenses. The Cowboys have regained their swagger after finally becoming a run-first offense. They bring their running game into a dome one day away from having three months without allowing 10 points allowed a defense, led by the two best run-stuffing defensive tackles in football. It’s a bad matchup for Dallas’s offense. On the other side of the ball, the Vikings will do to the Cowboys what both teams have done to opponents. A successful ground game will open up the field for Brett Favre who will finally get his first win over Dallas. The Vikings haven’t won a home game by anything less than 20 over the past two months. If only they could play Arizona…

CHARGERS 10-6 (3-1) -7.5 over Jets 7-10 (1-1)

Mark Sanchez: INTs +1.5 over TDs

Rex Ryan has done a remarkable job making the New York Jets into the most successful team in the AFC East. That said, he takes their top ranked defense across the country into San Diego against the only team with a longer winning streak than the Cleveland Browns. Sanchez and Greene were remarkable against Cincinnati but face significantly more pressure from a San Diego offense loaded with many more weapons on offense than the Bengals. The Chargers will put up at least 30 points and win this game by double digits.

Finally, I’d like to make a quick note on the Rooney Rule. I’m not a fan of the Rooney Rule because it rewards the worst people involved with it, on the owner’s end. Look at the following table:

Team Needs to fill a Position	With Rooney Rule	Without Rooney Rule
Minority best candidate without Question	Hired by first team that wants him	Hired if owner is not prejudiced/ passed over if owner is
Minority maybe best candidate for position… not necessarily	Best candidate hired unless owner is prejudiced- stellar Minority candidate risks wasting time with someone	Best candidate hired by non-prejudiced owners; prejudiced owners limited in their candidates
Best candidate for position is clearly not a minority	Both parties time is wasted	It is unlikely that the minority will be considered

I’m not saying that minorities can’t coach or assemble a football team. My two favorite off the field members of the New York Giants football team would have to be General Manager Jerry Reese and new Defensive Coordinator Perry Fewell. The Rooney rule serves only the owners who are too pigheaded to help their team in the best way. If the league is in a position that the rule is necessary- if some owners really would not consider hiring a non-white male, then the rule wastes the time of some qualified individuals who would be better served concentrating on the teams that would consider them.

Final Note- the NFC should be heavily favored in the Super Bowl

Cowboys 34 Eagles 14

Tony Romo, Wade Phillips, and Jerry Jones took a very cumbersome monkey off their backs by defeating the rival Philadelphia Eagles 34-14.

DeMarcus Ware has been fantastic. Not only did he notch up two sacks and a forced fumble, but Ware also induced two false starts by former Pro Bowl tackle Jason Peters. Ware was a constant presence in the backfield and helped shut down Philadelphia’s offense.

The Cowboys had the Eagles pinned deep the whole game. Philadelphia should’ve utilized Michael Vick on more plays; they clearly needed his explosiveness on the field. Offensively, Jason Garrett called a very balanced and effective offense, especially considering he declined to utilize Marion Barber after three ineffective carries.

Unfortunately we weren’t treated to the shot of the bewildered overweight coach on a missed challenge. That said:

Stat of the Day: Winning Coaches: 2-0 Coaches Challenges

Losing Coaches: 0-2 Coaches Challenges

Wade Phillips understood Shaun Suisham’s range very well. He punted at the right times and called for field goals at the right time. This wasn’t a game where that made much of a difference, but Jerry Jones appears to have made the right choice at kicker.

Roy Williams finally provided some help for Dallas’s offense and kept the Eagles on their heels.

Ed Hochuli was very flag-happy; I don’t remember a day of playoff football with so much dictated by penalties. I prefer letting the players play the game and duke it out with their rivals. It’s January.

I can’t wait until next week’s coaching matchup of the decade (thanks Ethan) between Wade Phillips and Brad Childress. The two most physical teams in football are squaring off next week; it’s going to be great.

Game MVP: DeMarcus Ware, (OLB): The Cowboys knew they were going to get a push between the tackles, but DeMarcus Ware hounded McNabb from the blind side. Ware came up big against New Orleans too. He’s a dynamic force on the Cowboys’ defense that can hound quarterbacks. Great game by Ware.

Jets 24 Bengals 14

The Jets soundly defeated the Cincinnati Bengals to start the playoffs. Cincinnati started with great Special Teams play but failed to capitalize. Shayne Graham missed two high percentage field goals and put sputtering Carson Palmer in unwinnable situations. Cedric Benson had an outstanding game, taking 21 carries for 169 yards. I don’t understand why the Bengals stuck with Benson the entire game.

This game spoke volumes for the opponents of resting players down the stretch. Cincinnati’s offense wasn’t fresh at all. Palmer missed receivers high and was bad enough that he was booed in Cincinnati. The Jets came off a big win over Cincinnati and took it to them again. Mark Sanchez did everything he needed to do to give the Jets the win.

Bill Leavy and his flag-happy crew gave Cincinnati a chance and then later took Cincinnati’s chances away. I couldn’t help thinking back to the article I wrote last fall about the problems with officiating today.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Chad soon-to-be-Johnson was playing hurt and keeping it quiet to free up other Wide Receivers. Then again, Bengals Wide Receivers have been stretched thin by injuries.

Shayne Graham, the waste of Cincinnati’s franchise tag, will not be getting that much sleep tonight. On the other hand, TJ Houshmandzadeh is on the brink of being a part of a Pete Carroll offense and can rest assured that every Bengals front office member regrets letting him get away.

I hope the Ravens heard Bob Costas say that the Jets will face “most likely the Colts” next weekend.

Of the four rookie quarterbacks to ever win a playoff start, two owe Rex Ryan. He’s quirky he’s loud, he doesn’t hide, but he has to be in discussions for Coach of the Year.

Game MVP: Jay Feely, (ST). Feely hit three field goals tonight, though only one counted. Feely also had an outstanding game punting for the Jets, pinning the Bengals inside their own 20 four times. Feely connected whenever his team called on him and that was the difference tonight.

Wild Card Preview

The Wild Card playoffs are here. It’s probably the strangest postseason round of any sport. It’s the season for instant classics in the snow, Tony Romo laying eggs, analysts gushing over QBs playing “clutch football” when their receivers do their jobs and analysts discarding QBs as “chokes” when theirs don’t. This week eight teams will go all out to get a road game against one of the four best teams in football. Wild Card weekend is set up in a way that the winners SHOULD expect to lose in the following week. Of course as any pre-2009 March Madness junkie would know, the top seeds don’t always win.

This year’s playoff field is very deep. The NFC features the New Orleans Saints with the best air attack in football combined with a defense that can also put up points in bunches. After that there are Minnesota Vikings who have the most balanced roster on paper with their ability to throw based off a strong running game and the best push in the trenches but also a very weak coach in Brad Childress. The Dallas Cowboys are just hitting their stride now that they’ve come to terms with being a run-first team, but they too have coaching problems. The Arizona Cardinals, who won three NFC playoff games last year, have only gotten better as they’ve added a consistent running game and made strides on defense to make up for Kurt Warner’s regression over this season. The Green Bay Packers at the #5 seed are a VERY dangerous team with better statistics over the second half of the season than anybody else in the league and also a surprising number of parallels to the 2007/2008 New York Giants team that won it all. Finally, the Philadelphia Eagles complete the playoff field with the most explosive threat football, but their six game winning streak came to a screeching halt with an injury to center Jamaal Jackson which left more concerns with their interior linemen.

The AFC has less depth than the NFC and an overall weaker field. I have strong doubts about the “14-0 without playing Curtis Painter” Indianapolis Colts and feel that their holes in their pass defense still have yet to be fully exposed. The San Diego Chargers are the hottest team in the league, but they run a one dimensional offense and have a coach in his 12^th year as a head coach who has one multiple playoff games exactly once. The injury depleted New England Patriots have lost the dominant defense and coaching edge to which fans grew accustomed last decade. The Cincinnati Bengals have probably the most balanced team on paper and a million reasons to win but must correct their passing woes from the end of the season. The surging New York Jets have rebounded from the brink of elimination at 4-6 and are bursting with confidence. Finally, my preseason pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, the Baltimore Ravens, are always a threat come playoff time.

The important thing to remember when the playoffs start is that ANYTHING can happen. The four teams to get a bye last season-including the Defending Super Bowl champions have been eliminated.

It’s time for playoff commercials- lots of them and overweight coaches making stupid challenges. It’s time for some 4^th quarter plays that inspire fan bases, facebook statuses, and tweets galore. It’s playoff time.

To spice up my picks, I’m including a player on the team against whom I’m picking who can really change the game.

Regular Season

126-126 (30-36)

My collapse down the stretch mirrored the Giants on my freefall down to a .500 record on the year. Yeah, it was that bad… Anyways

4:30 pm

BENGALS -2 over Jets

Cin 10-6 (4-6) NYJ 7-9 (1-1)

The 23^rd ranked team in ESPN’s Week 1 Rankings travels to Cincinnati to take on the 24^th ranked team by the same rankings. Both teams are coached by former Baltimore defensive coordinators and feature USC quarterbacks handing the ball off to former Chicago Bears running backs. Two of the best defenses in football square off to open up the playoffs. The Jets are the more complete team. I think they’re good enough to get the upset with a healthy Kris Jenkins playing nose tackle. Rex Ryan has done a great job all season and looks to be a part of a second consecutive team to win a playoff game with a rookie QB and head coach. Then again, I do think his playoff itinerary that includes the Super Bowl parade is too similar to Jerry Jones. However, despite having a stronger offensive line, depth at Wide Receiver, an edge at tight end, and a big play threat in Brad Smith, the Jets bringing Mark Sanchez into Paul Brown stadium gives Cincinnati a big advantage. Carson Palmer has had has struggles but remains one of the best quarterbacks in football whereas Mark Sanchez has struggled in one of the most QB friendly systems in football. The Bengals need to keep pressure on Sanchez and should be able to do so to get the win.

X Factor: Braylon Edwards, Jets: Even though he has a reputation as being prone to dropping passes, Edwards gives the Jets a downfield threat that the Bengals lost with an injury to the late Chris Henry. This is Edwards’s first career playoff game. Expect him to rise to the occasion.

8:00 pm

Eagles +4 over COWBOYS

Phi 7-9 (0-4) Dal 9-7 (5-2)

Frankly, I see the Cowboys winning this game by 3 or 4. Dallas has the commanding edge at the line of scrimmage on offense and on defense. Their three-headed rushing attack should be one of the most dangerous in the league… and will be when the right plays are called. Dallas has multiple weapons at Wide Receiver plus Jason Witten. Also, David Buehler has done a remarkable job as kickoff specialist and will give Philly a long field all game. They’ve been hitting their stride and look really good right now. Even with all the injuries to Philadelphia, the Eagles are never more than one play away from scoring. Brian Westbrook is healthy, though it remains to be seen how effective he can be. Dallas will face quirky wildcat formations and be put to the test against McNabb, Jackson, and Michael Vick. Important stat of the game: Andy Reid is 7-0 in playoff openers, while Wade Phillips is 0-4. Again, all bets are off this year.

X Factor: Shaun Suisham, Cowboys: Suisham can make Jerry Jones a hero but can also turn him into a goat. Suisham has struggled throughout his career as a placekicker. Suisham NEEDS to connect today when Coach Phillips calls his number. Missed field goals kill teams in the playoffs between momentum, field possession, and the missed opportunity to add points. Suisham needs to do his job for Dallas this postseason.

1:00 pm

Ravens +3.5 over PATRIOTS

Bal 10-5 (4-3) NE 10-4 (5-0)

New England did beat Baltimore at home once before earlier in the year but doesn’t have the same team. Baltimore’s rushing attack will wear New England’s defense down and give the Ravens a huge advantage in a late close game. New England doesn’t have the consistency of Wes Welker anymore. Brady’s injuries also put New England in a very tricky situation. I don’t think Belichick has his edge anymore. I said it before the media starting saying it every week. Belichick has lost his edge. I think Baltimore is the better team, weather be damned.

X Factor: Benjamin Watson, Patriots: Welker’s injury changes the dynamic of New England’s offense. Julian Edelman will have to step up and catch a lot of short passes. Randy Moss must make big plays, but Baltimore will probably have him double covered. Fred Taylor’s return will be a nice shot in the arm for New England, but Baltimore’s defense leads the league by allowing only 3.4 yards per carry. It’s Watson who’ll have to step up and make plays in the middle. He’s the most underutilized weapon on the team and will have to step up for New England to advance.

4:40 pm

Packers -1.5 over CARDINALS

GB 6-10 (1-3) Ari 8-8 (5-3)

I mentioned that the Packers have a lot in common with the 2007 Giants. Let’s see. They secured the 5^th seed despite being swept in a regular season series against the team who won their division. They have an inconsistent coach who has limited the team all season. They have an elite defense that has really come together down the stretch, including a Week 17 game in which they played their hearts out for no real consequence. Whenever the offense takes the field, their quarterback, through no fault of his own, is compared to one of the best players ever to play the game. The parallels exist, but they mean nothing. Arizona has gotten much better from one year ago but isn’t nearly as fresh as they were last season. Their run defense is by far the weakest of the twelve playoff teams, and they will pay for that. Green Bay should win this game pretty convincingly.

X Factor: Larry Fitzgerald, Adrian Wilson, Cardinals (tie): On offense, Fitzgerald is one of the few receivers who can take over a game on any given play. His work ethic and ability to make a play on the ball against any coverage gives the Cardinals a lot of flexibility. On the other side of the ball, Adrian Wilson has contributed to the defense on many levels. He rarely gets beat, is third on the team in tackles, and second on the team in interceptions. Wilson needs to have a big game to slow down Green Bay’s offense and give Arizona a chance to play their game.

Final Power Rankings

I spent today creating an eleven part statistical formula and tweaking it little by little until I was happy with the results. The formula is far from perfect; offenses and defenses are ranked based exclusively on my opinion. The formula doesn't take into account how much better a team is at a certain part of the game (i.e. Defense) than another team; it only uses their ranking relative to other teams. Another flaw is that the formula emphasizes games equally which means that a team would not get any more credit for beating the Titans in Week 12 than they would in Week 3. Likewise the Jets earned points for beating the Colts even though the Colts benched their starters. I made up for some inconsistencies by overcompensating on other elements of the formula. Still, I'm very happy with what I've created. It involves: offense (Saints #1), defense (Jets #1), potential (Vikings #1), consistency (Colts #1), the "X-Factor" (which combines coaching, special teams, explosiveness, and intensity and featured the Eagles at #1). Past my rankings, I also involved point differential, overall record, and strength of victory. I have my final power rankings, based on that formula. I've formatted it by listing the team followed by my ranking of them on offense, defense, and their score based on my formula. Please Enjoy.

Rams (32, 27, 7.5)
Bucs (27, 31, 8.9)
Lions (17, 32, 14.9)
Chiefs (26, 30, 14.9)

Seahawks (24, 28, 16.2)
Browns (31, 26, 18.8)
Raiders (29, 16, 26.4)
Redskins (30, 8, 31)

Bears (21, 25, 32.1)
Jaguars (13, 24, 36.4)
Bills (28, 10, 37)
Titans (14, 29, 41.5)

Dolphins (20, 21, 43.7)
Panthers (19, 18, 48.9)
Giants (5, 23, 57.4)
Broncos (23, 9, 59.2)

Falcons (13, 20, 60)
49ers (22, 3, 65.3)
Cardinals (12, 19, 67.3)
Texans (3, 22, 72.8)

Steelers (9, 15, 74.5)
Bengals (16, 4, 79)
Patriots (10, 17, 85.4)
Eagles (11, 13, 88.2)

Jets (25, 1, 88.9)
Ravens (18, 2, 92.2)
Chargers (7, 14, 106.5)
Packers (8, 5, 113.1)

Cowboys (4, 6, 113.3)
Colts (6, 12, 115.7)
Vikings (2, 7, 123.2)
Saints (1, 11, 126.2)

Playoff Preview is coming tomorrow.

A Fan's Reaction to a Big, Blue Season

I have never experienced a season like this. I have never experienced a season like this. For anybody who doesn’t know me personally, I am a Chicago Cubs fan and even liked the Boston Red Sox before personally experiencing Massachusetts in 2004- and yet somehow among all that futility I have never experienced a season like this. Even the Isiah era of the New York Knicks (still not entirely over as our first round draft choice this year is wasted on one Stephon Marbury) didn’t prepare me for the ups and downs of this Giants team. I have never experienced a season like this.
The Giants managed to lose games this season with style. Sure, the team appeared to fold time in and time out and demonstrated more problems with their heart than Dick Cheney, but the Giants found more ways to lose football games than any team with as much talent as they have should lose in three seasons. The season was a disaster.
Looking back on this season, most fans will remember the high expectations and the disaster that was Bill Sheridan’s defense, but the failure to establish a consistent, in-your-face rushing attack made this Giants team weak. Brandon Jacobs regressed from averaging at least 5.0 yards a carry in 6 out of 11 games played in 2007 and 7 out of 13 games played in 2008 to averaging 5.0 yards a carry only in 2 out of 15 games. Jacobs broke two carries for gains of twenty or more yards this season; last year he had twelve. I’m convinced that Jacobs has struggled with injuries all season, but then again Ahmad Bradshaw was the only other running back with more carries than Eli Manning- and he played on two broken feet when he was most needed. Danny Ware only carried the ball in 4 games this season and Andre Brown, the running back best suited for short yardage situations, missed the entire season. Add an injury to Madison Hedgecock: and the Giants’ bread and butter strength becomes a weakness. Much of the success (and failures) running the ball this season came from delayed runs out of the shotgun rather than old fashioned power football. The problems started there, but the bleeding continued all over the team.
For one thing, the Giants lost half their road games in the first quarter. When the Giants traveled to New Orleans, Philadelphia, Denver, and Minnesota, opponents combined for a whopping 90 points before the Giants notched their first points. Let that sink in. That’s an average of each team scoring more than three touchdowns while holding the G-Men scoreless. Remember that Carolina also put up a 31-0 lead, in the Meadowlands. How could that have happened?
A good running game makes everybody’s job on the team easier. The quarterback will inevitably have fewer pass defenders and thus easier coverages. On pass plays, linemen have an extra split second; the opposing defense is collectively characterized as “on their heels.” The advantages don’t end with the offense’s passing game. Defenses love to be resting off the field on long, sustained drives that eat up the clock. In the Week 7 Sunday Night game against Arizona, the Giants’ defense played a stellar first half. Fans were disappointed with the performance in the 2nd half but look at the discrepancy at the Giants’ rushing success. The Giants rushed for 108 yards in the game but only ran for 39 yards on the 17 carries (as well as Ahmad Bradshaw fumbling a 14 yard carry) after Jacobs’s touchdown run 1:28 into the 2nd quarter. No wonder the defense couldn’t hold up against Arizona’s high octane offense with a suddenly effective Beanie Wells.
It’s also hard to stay close when you can’t run the ball. I see the same mistake on Madden all the time. You’re down 10 points in a game where the other guy gets the ball to start the second half; it’s too easy to abandon the run and try to pass your way back into the game. This is why the Giants were out of the game so quickly against New Orleans, Philadelphia, Denver, Carolina, and Minnesota. Given the lack of resilience and character on this team, five games were over after kickoff.
I think 2009 was a year of bad luck for the Giants, especially with injuries. The only position where the Giants had as much healthy depth as necessary was Wide Receiver. I’ve seen great things from Eli Manning this year but not the consistent high-level of play that has made the greats special. Eli had a personal best season but hasn’t lived up to his contract, even considering the lack of production on the ground. Though he wasn’t given much of a cushion in the home game against Philadelphia, Eli’s 2nd half interception gave the Eagles an advantage that the Giants never could gain back. Still, the Giants had much better than an 8-8 roster. The unfathomably bad season put together by the defense also needs no elaboration. Sheridan’s thankfully gone, but he was a very small part of the problem with the coaching staff. The real person to blame for the 2009 season is the Head Coach, Tom Coughlin.
I’ve never been a fan of Coughlin. I disagreed with his hiring and chanted for his firing every year since he was hired. I’ve felt that the Giants had achieved mediocre results (not including the Super Bowl) that did not indicate just how good this team was. The 2007 run dramatically eased my distaste with Coach Coughlin even though I felt he did a mediocre job. The Giants played impeccable football in the 2007 playoffs. Eli Manning threw only one interception while the team stepped up around him. Coughlin, on the other hand, mismanaged the NFC Championship and could only manufacture a last-minute victory out of a game in which his team dominated from start to finish.
This year Coughlin royally screwed up. His ultraconservative game plan squandered leads three games in a row when he mismanaged the Arizona, San Diego, and Atlanta games. I tore Coughlin to pieces after the San Diego game. Refer back to my reflection on the Giants’ season going into the Week 13 Dallas game. The Giants have been plagued by three points I listed in November: injuries, coaching, and attitude. I forgot to mention that a poor head coach makes a team susceptible to problems in all three. In his press conference after laying an egg against Carolina, Coughlin was adamant that the team had a good week of practice and seemed ready to win. A reporter asked Coach Coughlin if he needed to examine how well he could “read the team” and clarified that Coughlin had felt the team had been caught off guard on more than one occasion that season. Of course, Coughlin declined to dignify the question with response, but if he won’t do it- someone has to. The Giants have clearly struggled with injury and attitude problems that have affected their play all season. Isn’t it Coughlin’s job to do something about that?
In his press conference after the Minnesota game concluding the disappointing season, General Manager Jerry Reese struck me when he mentioned that he felt, “the talent was there” when he’d taken over as GM. I’d always agreed with him. This points a lot of evidence to the idea that Coughlin really isn’t a championship caliber coach, an idea I’ve held since Fassel was fired. Coughlin doesn’t take risks, and opponents know it. He’s too conservative in his game plan and with regards to his personnel. Jeff Feagles had a terrible season punting, made some mistakes holding field goal attempts, and provided no reason for the defense to fear a fake; he should’ve been replaced. Bill Sheridan should’ve been fired too, much sooner than he finally was. Sinorice Moss should’ve been given a chance to duplicate his preseason success or otherwise been cut so the Giants could have signed Larry Johnson… or somebody healthy to provide Eli with some balance. The season could’ve been salvaged.
2009 was a waste. The Giants are the most talented team in the history of the league to be blown out as significantly and as dramatically as they were this year. Even the 2007 team that eventually won the Super Bowl was blown out three times at home. Surprisingly, Kevin Gilbride adjusted well this season and made great strides calling the plays. He ran a very successful offense-all things considered-and even sustained drives long enough to mask the defense’s problems, on some weeks. 2010 will be a fresh start, at least in terms of injuries. Big Blue needs a fresh draft class, healthy running backs, and someone who can stop the big play on defense. A rejuvenated Madison Hedgecock will provide a lot of help, but the Giants need a new coach to move forward. Tom Coughlin has worn out his welcome in New York. I’ve heard the cliché, “Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me.” Coughlin’s accumulated enough shame to make up for three Super Bowls; any more makes the franchise look bad. Coughlin’s gotta go. It’s time.

VERY Quick Picks... more detail to come (Subject to Change)

Sorry for last week. I don't know what else to say. I never had as bad a day picking winners in my life. It came after the week I watched the least football all season and showed it.

Week 16: 3-12-1 (0-4)
Season: 119-118 (29-33)


Giants +9 over Vikings
NYG 6-9 (1-3) Min 5-10 (2-2)
Colts +8 over BILLS
Ind 5-10 (2-3) Buf 4-10 (1-2)
DOLPHINS +3 over Steelers
Mia 6-9 (3-4) Pit 9-5 (1-0)
49ers -8 over RAMS
SF 9-5 (4-2) Stl 9-6 (2-3)
TEXANS -7 over Patriots
Hou 7-7 (1-2) NE 10-4 (5-0)
Bears -3.5 over LIONS
Chi 8-7 (1-0) Det 5-9 (0-2)
PANTHERS -7 over Saints
Car 5-10 (2-2) NO 8-7 (0-2)
Falcons -1.5 over BUCCANEERS
Atl 7-8 (1-1) TB 8-7 (0-2)
Jaguars +1.5 over BROWNS
Jax 9-6 (2-0) Cle 7-8 (0-1)
CARDINALS -3 over Packers
Ari 8-7 (5-3) GB 6-9 (1-3)
Chiefs +10 over BRONCOS
KC 9-6 (1-3) Den 3-12 (1-3)
SEAHAWKS +6 over Titans
Sea 9-6 (2-1) Ten 8-7 (1-2)
Ravens -10.5 over RAIDERS
Bal 10-4 (4-3) Oak 10-5 (1-2)
Eagles +3 over COWBOYS
Phi 7-8 (0-4) Dal 9-6 (5-2)
CHARGERS -3 over Redskins
SD 9-6 (2-1) Was 4-11 (1-4)
Bengals +9.5 over JETS
Cin 10-5 (4-5) NYJ 7-8 (1-0)
My Projected Wild Card Matchups (Will Change)
AFC
Ravens over PATRIOTS
BENGALS over Jets

NFC
Cowboys over CARDINALS
VIKINGS over Packers