The Big Blue Report
Week 1: Giants 23 Redskins 17
The much anticipated 2009 New York Giants season opened with a home game against an improved division rival in the Washington Redskins. New York received the kickoff and began the game with a good mix of passes, aided by Rich Seubert's heads up fumble recovery. Mario Manningham made two impressive plays, particularly heartening to see after missing most of 2008. Eli Manning led the offense well, making smart decisions until reaching Washington's 20. I loved the first down pass to Brandon Jacobs, setting up a short 2nd down- which as any loyal Giants fan knows, spells disaster. Kevin Gilbride called pretty much the only plays that guaranteed a 4th down situation: slow-developing rushes by Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Washington stuffed both, and the Giants settled for a Lawrence Tynes chip shot to give them a 3-0 lead.
Washington took over and gained 34 yards on a Clinton Portis rush bringing their net offensive yardage to plus thirty-four. It took eleven more plays from scrimmage (almost 19:00), including an interception to replicate that. A botched trick play took Washington out of field goal range when Justin Tuck and Chase Blackburn swarmed Antwaan Randle El and sacked him. As a huge proponent of creativity, I always try to give coaches the benefit of the doubt when a good idea doesn't work out as planned. Not this time. The vaunted Giants' defense didn't even have time to get their feet wet before the play. Best case scenario: Redskins score on a miracle pass, take a 7-3 lead, and put their tired defense right back on the field against Brandon Jacobs & company. Washington couldn't recover and punted it into the Giants' endzone.
Manning took over at the Giants' 20 and quickly found himself facing third and long. He delivered the ball to his favorite third down target, Steve Smith, to give Big Blue a new set of downs. Superior play from the offensive line was the key as the Giants drove back into the Red Zone. Facing 2nd and 3 on Washington's 5, the Giants faced a situation where they'd really love to have 3rd round draft choice Ramses Barden. Instead, the Giants gave the ball to Jacobs three times in a row. Everyone and their brother knew what was coming; the Giants turned the ball over on downs. I didn't like the calls on either 2nd or 3rd down, but took my hat off to Coach Coughlin for going for it on fourth down so early in the game. Best case, the Giants are giving the best defense in the league an early 10-0 lead. Worst case, the Giants are giving the best defense in the league a 97 yard field. As it turns out, Jacobs came up short- but I was more comfortable up 3-0 with the ball on Washington's 3 than I'd be up 6-0 on a shorter field.
Sure enough, Washington couldn't get the ball moving. The biggest threat to the Giants' defense ended when Corey Webster threw a feisty Santana Moss right onto the turf. The Redskins went three and out, giving the Giants the ball on Washington's 44.
Two negligible runs by Bradshaw set up 3rd and 9, outside Lawrence Tynes's field goal range. Manning found Domenik Hixon for a 10 yard gain. Two plays later, Manning hooked up with Manningham for a 30 yard touchdown, the ex-Wolverine star's first of his professional career. Tynes's extra point was true, giving the Giants a 10-0 lead with just over 10:00 remaining in the half.
Taking over at Washington's own 26 yard line, Jason Campbell completed consecutive passes of seventeen and thirteen yards, the first progress Washington's offense made since Portis's first touch. On 2nd and 8, knocking on the doorstep of field goal range, Campbell gave Santana Moss his first look since fighting Corey Webster, who came out on top again. Webster intercepted Campbell and gave the Giants a position to take a commanding lead.
Manning hit Smith and Jacobs to set up three productive runs by Bradshaw, but Eli fumbled as he was being brought down by Andre Carter. Lorenzo Alexander recovered the ball as the Redskins regained field possession.
With 3:49 remaining, the Redskins took over from their own 37. Portis picked up two yards on a first down rush that made very little sense. An incomplete pass set up 3rd and 8 pass from Campbell to Randle El to give Washington just enough for a new set of downs. The very next play, a rejuvenated and healthy Osi Umenyiora forced the ball out of Campbell's hands, picked it up, and scampered the rest of the way for a touchdown. After nailing the extra point, Tynes kicked off for the Redskins who took over from their own 23.
With only 2:05 remaining in the 1st half, the Redskins put together their first scoring drive of the game. Passes to Cooley, Betts, and Randle El brought Washington inside New York's ten. Once again, the Giants defense bent but didn't break. After three plays went nowhere, Jim Zorn dialed up another trick play. With the field goal team lined up on the 15, former Colts punter Hunter Smith faked out the Giants' defense with an 8 yard sweep around the right side and scampered into the end zone. Washington executed a brilliantly drawn up play to perfection and pulled to within 10 at halftime.
The Giants' defense took the field in the second half having scored more points than they'd allowed. A touchback gave Washington the ball at their own 20 yard line. The Redskins gained yardage on seven of eight plays to set up a 3rd and 2 on the Giants' 43. Umenyiora made another big play to force a punt that pinned the Giants inside their own 10.
The first possession of the drive had a promising start. Eli hit first round pick Hakeem Nicks to pick up a first down. Jacobs gained nine yards on the ground to set up 2nd and 1, and Eli just missed Nicks deep downfield. This was one of the only good short yardage play calls of the game and showed a dangerous downfield threat in Nicks. The Redskins sniffed out the draw to Jacobs and forced the Giants to punt the ball away.
Two short gains by Portis set up 3rd and 5 for Washington. Campbell found Chris Cooley to pick up a new set of downs. Washington again tried and failed to establish the running game and punted the ball, pinning the Giants back at their own ten yard line.
The Giants' had a very short possession. Jacobs picked up two yards on the ground before DeAngelo Hall intercepted an ill-advised Eli Manning pass and returned it well within Shaun Suisham's range.
Eleven yards from paydirt might have well been an eternity for the Redskins or any other team facing Justin Tuck. Tuck dragged Clinton Portis down 6 yards behind the line of scrimmage on first down. Campbell completed a 10 yard pass to Clinton Portis but was brought down for a sack by Tuck on third down. The Giants weren't going to be fooled twice by a fake, so Shaun Suisham hit a 27 yard field goal, leaving the score Giants 17 Redskins 10.
Replacing the injured Danny Ware, Hakeem Nicks returned the following kickoff to the Giants' 29. After the most expensive addition to the NFC East this offseason dragged Ahmad Bradshaw down for a short loss, Manning responed with a 24 yard completion to Kevin Boss. Bradshaw picked up a first down with two rushes . The teams exchanged five yard penalties and a seven yard completion from Manning to Nicks set up another third and short. Manning missed Manningham, setting up a 45 yard field goal for Tynes who put the GIants up 20-10.
A good kickoff return by Ladell Betts gave the Redskins great starting field possession from their own 38. Washington tried to fool the Giants with an end-around, but got nothing. A short completion to Randle El and incompletion intended for Santana Moss gave the Redskins another 4th down where they punted the ball away.
A Madison Hedgecock false start and incompletion intended for Domenik Hixon set up a long 2nd and 15. Back to back completions to Steve Smith moved the Giants all the way into Washington territory. The Giants really couldn't run out the clock on the ground. Jacobs lost a yard on his only carry of the drive. Bradshaw followed up by picking up a mere yard after a Carlos Rogers illegal contact penalty gave the Giants a new set of downs. Eli hit Kevin Boss downfield to pick up the Giants' last first down of the game when the Giants settled for another Tynes field goal.
The Redskins took the field with 3:12 to go and put together a garbage time drive against the Giants' prevent defense. After a failed onside kick, the score stood at 23-17, giving Washington the backdoor cover but the Giants the opening day victory and the tie at the top of the NFC East.
Heroes
Rich Seubert- Game MVP in my opinion. The longest tenured New York Giant is also the most underrated. Seubert did a phenomenal job of neutralizing Albert Haynesworth. Seubert set up a couple nice Bradshaw runs to keep the defense honest and gave Eli Manning enough time to figure out the Redskins defense.
Osi Umenyiora- It was particularly rewarding to see Umenyiora as effective as he was before his injury. Umenyiora made his presence felt all game, especially on his touchdown. Look for this to be just the beginning of another All-Pro season from Umenyiora.
Justin Tuck- It seems that bad things happen for an offense whenever either Giants' defensive end faces single coverage. Tuck earned NFC Defensive player of the week honors for disrupting so many Redskins drives.
Corey Webster- Though he's one of the most overpaid players on the team, Webster earned his contract last Sunday by locking down Santana Moss all day. Webster got the better of Moss both in their scuffle and on the few times Jason Campbell looked his way.
Bill Sheridan- In his predecessor's first five halves, Steve Spagnuolo's defense looked terrible. Sheridan's defense looked crisp the entire game. The Giants went more than 58 minutes before allowing an offensive touchdown and held Washington running backs to 27 yards on the 17 carries after Portis's first run. The Giants' defense looked like the best defensive unit in football.
Lawrence Tynes- Tynes reclaimed his staring job in style, connecting on field goals from 28, 45, and 28 yards. He kicked a couple of nice balls on kickoffs and allowed the Giants to capitalize on their offensive successes. It's easy to forget a kicker's impact, especially if the game doesn't come down to a last second kick, but Tynes did very well.
Goats
Kevin Gilbride- Gilbride showed some creativity in the beginning of the game but called a truly terrible game, especially in short yardage situations. The Giants were a paltry 2/10 on situations with three or fewer yards to go for a first down. That's pathetic. The Giants need to do a lot better in Dallas.
Brandon Jacobs- Jacobs needs to be much more effective for the Giants to succeed this year. Let's chalk this one up to Washington's playing the run on defense and look for Jacobs to bounce back Sunday night in Dallas.
Raiders + 3 Chiefs
Texans +7 Titans
Jets +4 Patriots
Bengals +9 Packers
Lions +10 Vikings
Saints -1.5 Eagles
Panthers +6 Falcons
Redskins -10 Rams
Jaguars -3 Cardinals
Niners -1 Seahawks
Bucs +4.5 Bills
Browns +3 Broncos
Ravens +3 Chargers
Bears +3 Steelers
Giants +3 Cowboys
Dolphins +3.5 Colts
Last week I went 1/4 on my favorite picks and was 8-8 overall. I missed seven of the nine 1:00 games on Sunday. I was 4-0 in games not on Sunday. I also underestimated the Packers in my preview. They have the most underrated defense in the league and are without a doubt the team to beat in the post-Urlacher NFC North.
New York Giants Season Preview
Rushing Offense
The Giants finished the season last year with the most rushing yards of any team while running on the 7th most carries. Brandon Jacobs returns as arguably the best combination of size and speed in any backfield in football. Ahmad Bradshaw, to whom I still credit with the turning point of the Giants' Super Bowl winning campaign with an 88 yard touchdown run in Buffalo, Week 16 of the 2007 season. Look for his career 6.1 yards per carry average to drop in his increased role, but an effective campaign. Danny Ware has the capacity to contribute too. Three talented backs behind such a solid offensive line, and with the devastating blocking ability of Madison Hedgecock give the Giants all the weapons to recreate last year's success.
Passing Offense
The Giants finished the season last year with the 18th most passing yards on the 21st most passing attempts. Despite playing in the toughest division in football, the Giants ranked 7th in team passer rating. Eli Manning returns to lead a young, raw group of Wide Receivers. Expect Domenik Hixon and Hakeem Nicks to alternate as Eli's first option. Steve Smith is also looking to expand on his role as a consistent third down option. 6'6 Ramses Barden adds a threat. Reports from camp indicate that the unproven Mario Manningham gives the offense its most explosive threat after the catch. Kevin Boss is a hard-worker who can block and catch downfield. Factor in Sinorice Moss who seems ready to get more time with the offense after his two first quarter touchdown catches against New England, Derek Hagan, Travis Beckum, and Darcy Johnson give Eli plenty of fresh options throughout the season.
Overall Outlook
The loss of the go-to option in Plaxico Burress is much more tragic off the field than it will be on the field. I remain in the small minority of fans by maintaining that Eli did not fold down the stretch last season. I place the blame on a harder schedule than the Giants had been facing during their 11-1 start and the abysmal play calling of Kevin Gilbride. Don't get me wrong, I think Gilbride has done a phenomenal job meshing the offensive line and deserves to be the Offensive Coordinator, but he can't call plays- which has really hurt the team in two respects.
I hated the way the Giants utilized their three-headed rushing attack last season. I'd much prefer Jacobs to be the fresh option late in the game when the defense is worn down. I'd really like to see the Giants try to open up the game with Bradshaw getting 60-75% of the work, Jacobs getting a couple of carries, and the occasional carry for Ware. This strategy also gives the Giants a fresh Jacobs in the red zone, which can be a tremendous advantage.
The Giants' past struggles to run an offense up to the potential of its players has lost the team a key weapon who was one of my favorite Giants.e I've been a believer in Kevin Boss since watching him take over for Jeremy Shockey after Shockey fractured his fibula right before the Super Bowl run- but he's not as dangerous on the field as Shockey was and lacks the presence to bring a safety out of the box. Shockey's presence would make defensive coordinators think twice before sending an additional man to play the run this season, especially without Plaxico. Somewhere along the road, the Giants removed Shockey from their game plan and limited him from being the best he could be. I agreed with Shockey every time he publicly announced he felt the team was outcoached. Despite achieving great results the past two seasons, the offense could be better- and should be.
This season, the Giants need to create a more elaborate passing scheme. With such a solid offensive line and intelligent personnel at the "skill positions" the Giants are one of the few teams who can afford to mix it up with overlapping pass routes and delayed screens to Boss, Beckum, and the backs. By waiting until the linebackers blitz or drift into coverage, the Giants can attack the short field effectively and create more manageable third downs- a task I believe is the key to this season. Loaded with talent at every position, the Giants offense can click this season and become really good. I can't wait to see how good the Giants offense can be this year.
AFC
Playoffs
NE
Hou
SD
Bal
Cin
Buf
In the Hunt
Pitt
Ten
Jax
Cle
Next Year
NYJ
Oak
Ind
Den
Mia
KC
NFC
Playoffs
NYG
Chi
NO
SFO
Was
GB
In the Hunt
Phi
Car
Dal
Sea
Next Year
Min
Ari
Det
Atl
TB
Stl
What's Special About this year?
1. The Houston Texans make the next step. This is the year that Houston becomes the team to beat in the AFC South- not just an underdog that belongs, but the team to beat. Don't be surprised if the Texans win the division and maybe even snag a first round bye.
2. The Indianapolis Colts will not finish above .500. The glory days of Peyton's record-setting seasons have come and gone. I would not be surprised if the Colts finish 4th in the AFC South. They don't have the coaching, offensive line, and sure hands of Marvin Harrison that made this team so dominant for so long.
3. The most competitive division race in football will be the AFC North. Each team has just enough going for them to be competitive every week. The worst team on paper (Cleveland) will beat the best team in the division (Baltimore). Final standings seperate the top from the bottom by three games. Maybe fewer.
4. The most competitive division will continue to be the NFC East. The Dallas Cowboys are one of the twelve best teams in the league, despite being doomed to miss the playoffs again. Six games against the class of the NFL plus one against San Diego is an incredibly difficult season. The NFC East will win at least 38 games collectively, and excel in the postseason.
5. The NFC South will take a step back to mediocrity. I'm not a believer in either Tampa Bay or Atlanta, even though I think Leftwich is going to have a good year. Michael Turner is due for a down year. He will demonstrate that he is not equipped and durable enough to carry the same load. The Panthers and Saints will battle for the division.
6. The Detroit Lions will look like a playoff team on a few weeks this year. They will also look as bad as last year on most weeks. Besides a couple shocking wins against playoff teams, the Lions will have another rebuilding season in Mo-Town.
7. The NFC West is awful. There's not much else to say here. The Rams are a miserable franchise even though I really like Spagnuolo. The Cardinals are dangerous downfield- exactly what you need to excel in a division like the West. Seattle is the only team that can be dangerous in January... but I still don't see it. Look for San Francisco to win the division- at 9-7 or worse.
8. The Eagles made a good decision by signing Michael Vick- but it's not enough. McNabb is not capable of taking this team all the way, especially at this point in his career. Vick adds so much flexibility to the offense and makes Marty Mornhinweg's job probably the most fun in the NFL.
9. The Bears were the winners of the Cutler trade. Rex Grossman would have been a better fit than Orton on over 70% of NFL offenses the past few years. The Bears were in the minority. Cutler will make the Bears very dangerous. The Bears will have one of the best records at midseason, and may even finish with a bye. Denver will struggle against a cupcake schedule and finish behind the Raiders for third in the AFC West. Chris Simms will start a couple games. If Brandon Marshall remains healthy, he will not finish the season with Denver.
10. The teams who play their home games in Missouri will combine to win a single digit number of games.
11. Wade Phillips, Brad Childress, and Raheem Morris will be gone by the end of the season.
12. Carson Palmer is going to be good. Really good. This goes back to a part of the third point I listed. The Bengals are going to have a good season. They started off the '08 campaign with a career backup against a vicious schedule. This year they are back in a situation where they can start off competitively and be a threat to take the AFC North.
13. LaDainian Tomlinson will carry San Diego to the easiest division title since the '07 AFC East. He will do this while commentators refer to him as Tomlinson, not "LT".
14. One player from each division who will quantifiably outperform expectations: Trent Edwards, Braylon Edwards, Steve Slaton, Darren McFadden, Jason Campbell, Kevin Smith, Jeremy Shockey, Josh Morgan (pending Michael Crabtree's holdout)
15. Players from each division who will quantifiably underperform against expectations: New England Patriots Linebackers, Ben Roethlisberger, Reggie Wayne, Matt Cassel, Donovan McNabb, Steve Hutchinson, Michael Turner, and Chris (Beanie) Wells
16. Commentators will still be struggling to understand technicalities of coach's challenge, even after Week 9.
17. We, as viewers, will be rolling our eyes at the newest line of Bud Light, Miller Lite, and Coors Lite commercials.
18. QBs facing pressure from their backups: T. Edwards (will succeed) M. Sanchez (won't succeed but will keep job) C. Pennington (won't hold job) B. Quinn (will survive when Anderson gets traded... maybe to Denver) K. Collins (won't start every game) K. Orton (won't hold job) M. Cassel (won't hold job) T. Romo (won't succeed but will keep job... at least this year) McNabb (see previous) Favre (will survive while throwing the ball a fraction as often as he's accustomed) Warner (won't hold job)
19. I will consistently pick against the spread at better than 52.5% for the season... and even better in the Playoffs.
20. I will beat ESPN's Bill Simmons with margin for error.
21. On February 7, 2010- my 21st birthday- my New York Giants will win the franchise's fourth Super Bowl, beating Baltimore 24- 10.
