Catching Our Breath: Part II

This is Part II of a four part entry with me ranking each team, recalling my preseason projections, assessing where each team is now, grading my preseason assessment, and characterizing every team as someone or something from either pop culture or my life. Rankings were made after Week 6. Please Enjoy.

Part II is dedicated to Sober Alex.

24. Seattle Seahawks

What I Thought: Seattle would improve from last year and make the most of their weak division. The offense would make strides from last year’s down season, but the defense would be pretty mediocre. I expected the Seahawks to win one, maybe two games on the road all season.

What I Think: The Seahawks have a complete offense but a minimal defense. They may end up being good enough to win the NFC West, but they are by no means a good football team. Don’t let the games like the Jacksonville game fool you. Jim Mora Jr. has work to do to ensure Seattle shows up to play every week, not just at home.

Alisberg Evaluation: B

Who are they? Billy Madison, Billy Madison. Incredibly comfortable on their own turf, the Seahawks’ struggles multiply when they have to adapt to a new environment. Just like it took Billy a long time to fit in with the new high school crowd, Seattle has trouble outside the needle. Also, I’m sure Jim Mora Jr. has made plenty of statements to make everyone in the locker room dumber.

23. Miami Dolphins

What I Thought: Miami’s lack of talent would catch up to them. Chad Pennington would become Chad Pennington again. The Dolphins’ coaching staff could outfox other weak teams and pick up a couple games. Otherwise, the Dolphins season would come down almost entirely to turnover differential.

What I Think: Ronnie Brown doesn’t get his due. He’s a very good running back. Throw in Ricky Williams and a very impressive Chad Henne and the Dolphins are all of the sudden a pretty competitive team. The Dolphins have some talent on both sides of the ball, more than for what I gave them credit preseason- but they are not a contender. They don’t have a shot to come back from a multiple score defecit late in the game.

Alisberg Evaluation: C+

Who are they? Kevin McAllister, Home Alone, Home Alone 2. The Dolphins find themselves outmatched but somehow come up with creative ways to make the other team look like they don’t belong. The Dolphins make the most with what they have, on both sides of the ball.

22. Buffalo Bills

What I Thought: Defensively, the Bills were good enough to allow them compete with anybody in the league. Additionally, the addition of Terrell Owens would finally give the Buffalo offense the spark it needed to become a good team that could compete with the Patriots and pick up a double digit of wins against the spread.

What I Think: The Bills have been crippled by a weak offensive line, injuries, suspensions, and Dick Jauron. Their defense is good enough for them to compete on any day. It’s on their offense now. Don’t look now, but the sometimes pathetic Buffalo Bills are game against Houston at their worst from being .500 at the halfway point.

Alisberg Evaluation: C

Who Are They? Happy Gilmore, Happy Gilmore. The last Adam Sandler reference. I promise. Buffalo has a lot of potential to become one of the more explosive offenses with a stingy defense too, but Happy didn’t win on his natural long drive- he had to learn how to putt. Surprisingly, Buffalo has only won one game (Week 2 vs. Tampa) in the manner that I expected them to win this year. Buffalo needs a quarterback. We saw how much better Cincinnati got by upgrading from Fitzpatrick to Palmer. Had Buffalo gone out this offseason and picked up Jeff Garcia, they’d be a playoff team.

21. Jacksonville Jaguars

What I thought: Jacksonville underperformed last season considering their talent. The defense has fallen a long way since Henderson and Stroud dominated the middle. David Garrard and Maurice Jones-Drew are both very good at their positions but not quite good enough to make Jacksonville competitive the whole season. They would be able to give any team a run for their money, but still finish around 7-9.

What I think: The 3-3 Jaguars are as inconsistent a team as the NFL has this year. The most consistent part of the 2009 is unquestionably their inconsistency. Garrard has the potential to create problems for the defense on every down. The Jags have been killed by their holes at the Wide Receiver position but have still managed to give the Colts their toughest game of the year (so far), in Indy. It does seem, however, that Jack Del Rio will not coach this team in 2010.

Alisberg Evaluation: A-

Who are they: Nikki/Jessica Sanders, Heroes. Against Seattle, Jacksonville was the overwhelmed single mother who couldn’t make anything happen. In intradivision games, they’ve been as dangerous as anybody. To me, it seems that Jacksonville shows up to play only when in games in which they really want to make a statement, against a rival they know well. That’s the sign of a coach who has lost his team.

20. Arizona Cardinals

What I thought: A team coming off a 3-7 regular season outside of their division was stuck with the combined red flags of coming off a Super Bowl losing season, half of the Madden cover, and an incomplete team whose strength relied on the arm of an overrated, 38 year old arm. Wow. Still, I felt the Cardinals had enough playmakers to stay competitive in the three horse race for the NFC West, through I picked San Francisco to win it.

What I think: Since Ken Whisenhunt was hired, no coach has done more with the talent he has been given. That said, the Cardinals have been given a few Christmas presents a little early this year, from the Jaguars, one half of the Texans game, the Seahawks, and even the Giants. Even at 4-2, the Cardinals have yet to dazzle me this season. That being said, they have the playmaking ability on offense to compete with anybody with a few breaks here and there.

Alisberg Evaluation: B

Clarice Starling, Hannibal. Some people expected great things from a team coming right off a very successful season in which they just fell short at the end. In The Silence of the Lambs, Clarice Starling was by no means a spectacular agent, but rather Dr. Hannibal Lector’s fascination with her gave her an advantage in solving a very high profile case. Starling was no better of an agent than her colleagues, never-the-less, she was able to get a lot done.

19. San Francisco 49ers

What I thought: The 49ers rebuilding efforts were finally ready to come to fruition this season, on the shoulders of their defense, which would turn heads. I figured the 49ers would win the NFC West, going at least 4-2, probably 5-1 or maybe even 6-0 in the division. Still, the NFC West is so bad that the 49ers would only win a handful of games outside the division and win the division at 9-7 or worse. At 3-0, I thought the 49ers would fade back to the pack.

What I think? The 49ers were the worst 3-0 team this season. Since then, they’ve faded to a 3-3 record. Still, they are far from done. The Alex Smith to Michael Crabtree combination is about to make San Francisco dangerous on both sides of the ball. It has been a long time since anyone could say that about this franchise. This will probably be the worst team to make the playoffs, but they are getting better.

Alisberg Evaluation: A

Who are they? Fawkes, Harry Potter. Introduced as a magnificent creature, the 49ers died in a way as they’ve lost their lead in the NFC West and fallen back to .500. Now, like a phoenix rising from the ashes, we are about to see their rebirth. I seriously can’t say enough about the reinsertion of Alex Smith, now that he has a deep threat and the Vernon Davis we all expected to see years ago. Smith is not a bust yet by my evaluation. This is his first opportunity to lead a good offense. I love San Francisco as the hands-down NFC West favorite down the stretch.

18. Carolina Panthers

What I thought: The Panthers were going to continue the trend of one-and-done winners of the NFC South. When Carolina’s running game is effective, they’d be a very dangerous offense. Defensively, they’d take a step back from the 2008 season that ended in a first round bye and second round defeat. The Panthers would finish as a fringe team, maybe 9-7.

What I think: The Panthers had some very tough games to open the season, against Philly and on the road in Atlanta and Dallas. They still have a handful of tough games: against New England, both “New York” teams, Atlanta, two against New Orleans, and Minnesota. This is not a schedule that leads to a successful season. Carolina will be one of the best 8-8 teams ever if they can reach the .500 mark on the season. John Fox may be better off in a new environment after this year. He can still coach, but he’s losing the team. As for Jake Delhomme? Well, bear with me one second.

Alisberg Evaluation: C

Who are they? Sober Alex. My college buddy. This one takes a little more of an explanation. Last year, Sober Alex came to school with an on-and-off girlfriend who made it virtually impossible for him to have any relationship on campus. Naturally, this made him all the more appealing to one girl in particular, for the sake of anonymity, let’s call her J.D. Last year, Sober Alex kind of had a thing for her, but his insistence on fidelity and behaving like a classy boyfriend stopped anything from really happening. Fast forward to this year: Sober Alex’s relationship has ended and J.D. is still single- only here’s the thing, she had put on weight, become a royal pain in the ass so much so that her own friends abandoned her, soiled a car coming back from Sean Kingston, and fooled around with a list of guys that’s probably longer than the average Oakland Raiders third and long. J.D. had reached, “hmmm, nobody is coming through tonight… booty call? Wait, what am I thinking? Hell no” territory. Ok, let’s rewind.

Back in the summer of 2003, two years removed from a miserable 1-15 season, I predicted to a bunch of camp buddies who also love football that the Panthers would be very competitive and specifically that they would upset the defending Super Bowl Champions, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, on the road, in Tampa on Week 2. On the first week of the season, an ineffective Rodney Peete was replaced by a virtual no-name in Jake Delhomme who took the Panthers to a comeback win over the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Panthers cruised to a 5-0 start and never looked back, not until losing in the Super Bowl while managing to cover the spread in one of the greatest gambling moments of my life. Fast-forward back to today.

The Carolina Panthers view quarterback Jake Delhomme in the same way that Sober Alex views “J.D.” Purely because of a close call a while back, the Panthers are convinced that their J.D. can take them to the promised land. Delhomme can lead the NFL in interceptions per game and interceptions returned for touchdowns per game, two categories in which JaMarcus Russell is also eligible, and still keep the support of his franchise. It makes no sense, it only spells disaster, and it frustrates the people who care about the franchise to no end. What’s so disconcerting, is it seems that thirty teams in the league would classify Delhomme as, “hmmm, we can’t find anyone else to lead our team… should we grab this guy? Wait, what am I thinking? Hell no, sorry I brought that up.” The parallels to Sober Alex are unmistakable. The Panthers need a slap in the face and someone to yell at them, “DON’T KEEP STARTING JAKE DELHOMME.” (and don’t take him out to Starbucks either).

17. New York Jets

What I thought: The Jets were a very similar team from last year with a small defensive upgrade, a big head coach upgrade, and a tremendous quarterback downgrade. They would struggle in a much deeper AFC East and ultimately finish around 6-10 before adding a playmaker on offense and challenging the Patriots for the AFC East in 2010.

What I think: The Jets came out flying with two wins over playoff teams but have struggled against mediocrity. I loved everything about the Braylon Edwards trade; it will do for Jerricho Cotchery and the Jets what the Terrell Owens signing was supposed to do for Lee Evans and the Bills. The Jets have faltered until they righted the ship against Buffalo. They can play to anybody’s level in the league.

Alisberg Evaluation: C- (would have predicted better things had I known they’d trade for Edwards)

Who are they? Christopher Moltisanti, The Sopranos. Those who know me should first give me credit for assessing 15 teams without resorting to a Sopranos reference, but how else can you describe the team in North Jersey that has consistently let mental errors get in the way of success. They need a better quarterback to win this season but will be a force in the AFC for years to come- as long as they can avoid Pink Floyd and teenage girls out after dark.

Week 8 Preview

Week 8

Last Week: 7-5-1

Season: 55-47

Bold Picks

Last Week 1-2-1

Season 13-14

RAVENS -3.5 over Broncos

Don’t believe all the “Denver hasn’t gotten credit all year” garbage going into this week. Baltimore is hands down Denver’s biggest test to-date. The Broncos are going on the road against one of the most balanced offenses and aggressive defenses in the league. Baltimore lost in New England (as did every road team this season), in Minnesota (ditto), and a fluke game at home against an inferior Bengals team (as I somewhat predicted). They’re coming off a bye and will be hungry to show just how good they are. San Diego was the closest Denver came to actually being challenged; Baltimore will demonstrate what it really takes to be a part of the class of the NFL. Before you pick this game, ask yourself if you honestly think that this Baltimore team can lose such an important game, staring 3-4 in the face.

BEARS -13.5 over Browns

Chicago has lost consecutive road games, dropping the team to 1-3 on the road. They remain unbeaten at home, even beating the Steelers. Cleveland will not win this game. Lay the points, take the bears. Great survival league opportunity here.

Texans -3.5 over BILLS

This is one of the toughest games to pick this week. On the one hand, you have the Texans, tied for their best start this late in the season in their franchise history- without their best playmaker, Andre Johnson, at full strength, but still showing flashes of how dangerous I thought they’d be in August. On the other hand, Buffalo has put together consecutive wins over middle of the pack teams and returns home to potentially stand at 4-4 heading into their second half of the season (which does include a bye). Don’t forget about Terrell Owens, who is turning out to be one of the best free agent acquisitions of the season. I can’t count that many players who would help Buffalo be a fumbled kickoff return away from leading the AFC East, even amidst so many injuries.

Still, I like Houston to come out flying this week. Schaub has put up great numbers, but running back Steve Slaton is due to crack the century mark and start averaging multiple yards per carry once again. I also really don’t like Ryan Fitzpatrick and urge you not to buy into the Harvard quarterback Yale coach mystique. I can see this going either way, but I’m inclined to think Houston makes a statement here.

49ers +13 over COLTS

I made the bold prediction preseason that the Houston Texans were the team-to-beat in the AFC South. With San Francisco coming off a game in Houston, a game in Indianapolis will be the best test of whether or not I was right. I love the new-look 49ers team heading into this Indy game. With Alex Smith and Michael Crabtree, the 49ers finally have a deep threat. I’m not ready to label someone whose most reliable passing target had been Arnaz Battle a bust quite yet. The 49ers are the closest the NFC West has come to a complete team since the Seahawks cut Shaun Alexander. This game will be a lot of fun to watch, but don’t be surprised if the Colts falter. Peyton is due to look human in one of these performances, and I think this could be it. This is a terrible survival league pick.

On a side note, how are the Colts still ranked #1 on ESPN? Whether or not the Saints will finish undefeated has crossed from taboo territory to a real possibility. In my opinion, the Colts are notably worse than several teams. They’re the one team whose soft schedule has been mysteriously forgotten.

JETS -3.5 over Dolphins

A rematch of the Monday Night game a few weeks back should look awfully different in the Meadowlands. The Jets know exactly what to expect from Chad Henne and the Wildcat formations. The Dolphins have lost some of their coaching advantage because the Jets have seen it all before. I like the Jets to hand Miami their first loss against an AFC East opponent, in a convincing manner.

LIONS -4 over Rams

How bad are the Rams when a franchise who has gone 1-28, for a winning percentage of .034 in their last twenty-nine games against teams with someone not named Damon Huard at QB has to lay 4 points? Truly terrible. This is the first time in a long time that the Lions will take the field against a team that is even worse than they are. It’s going to be fun to watch the Lions defense forcing three and outs. Watching this game will basically be like watching a Sprint Cup Race, with a field limited exclusively to college aged Korean females.

Seahawks +10 over COWBOYS

This is my, “To Hell With It, Keep DJSYKES happy” pick of the week. I fully expect Dallas to win this game, but Seattle has too many weapons on offense to let a Wade Phillips coached team blow them out. Dallas is the better team and at home, but the spread is three and a half points too high. I’d stay away from this game, however. It can end up going either way.

Giants -1 over EAGLES

Oh baby. Here are a few of my favorite NY vs. Philly links: Giants owning McNabb on defense, the Giants Stadium Rocky tribute to Philly, and one of the greatest/luckiest plays in NFL history. The Giants have always been really good at containing McNabb, and will have a huge advantage without having to worry about Brian Westbrook. Andy Reid has not figured out how to use Michael Vick to his advantage. This is the game for the Giants to get back on track. As long as the Giants can use the running game correctly, they will cruise to a very important win and finish the season 2-0 on the road against teams with a shot to win the NFC East. I love facing Philadelphia on short rest. Jacobs and Co. will make that a HUGE advantage.

CHARGERS -16.5 over Raiders

It’s time for San Diego to do what they should have been doing all season. The wake up call happened, on multiple occasions. Oakland’s about to get blown out of the water, again.

TITANS -3 over Jaguars

I don’t like this pick that much for either team. Vince Young makes the Tennessee offense a little more dangerous, enough to the point where they’ll be able to keep pace. The Titans will return back to Johnson and White pounding the ball down Jacksonville’s throat. Tennessee needs to hold the ball for 34+ minutes to win this game. They should do that.

Vikings +3.5 over PACKERS

In one of the five most hyped games of the season, there is almost no question that it will come down to the end of the 4^th quarter. The spread is too much to take Green Bay straight up, even though I’m leaning a little over 50/50 to the Packers. The return to Lambeau will be one of the most memorable games for Brett Favre in his illustrious career. The Vikings had a pretty good advantage over Green Bay last game. If Rodgers has time to throw, the Packers win. If not, we’ll be hearing a lot of envious hatred coming out of some Packers fans.

Panthers +10 over CARDINALS

What a difference a half season makes. Last year the Panthers were the overwhelming favorite in the divisional round of the NFC playoffs. This year? It’s the Panthers who are about to upset the home team. I really like this pick. Remember that guy who has the same name as the #2 receiver in receptions and #3 receiver in yards? Steve Smith is going to get involved in the passing game very early. Fox needs to keep Carolina’s offense balanced and not force Jake Delhomme to make plays. I’m picking Carolina to win this one outright.

Falcons +11.5 over SAINTS

The Falcons are a well disciplined and very well coached team. I’m still not ready to go against my preseason bet that they wouldn’t make the playoffs, especially against a divisional rival who is one of the only two undefeated teams against the spread remaining (with Denver). This is one of the four or five games that may very well stand in the way of an undefeated season for New Orleans, but the Falcons will have a much better shot in Atlanta. Still, Mike Smith will not let this Atlanta team show up to New Orleans to roll over. Take the points, and pick Atlanta to keep this one close.

State of the Giants

The State of the Giants

When I want to spend three hours yelling at the person on the screen phrases like, “Don’t go there. Don’t try to do that. There’s a much better option. Think about this,” I pay my ten bucks and watch some twenty-something year old actress play a high-schooler in a horror movie. Enjoyable as that sometimes may be, I don’t want to try to replicate that experience by watching a Giants game. Ever. The Giants’ abysmal game day coaching has crippled the team all season. Let’s recap the highlights of each game.

Week 1: Beat Washington start to essentially over, Failures on 3^rd Down, Jacobs struggles, Defense Elite, Haynesworth neutralized

Week 2: Squeaked by Dallas, Phillips lost for year, Cowboys gain 251 rushing yards, Giants win turnover battle 4-0

Week 3: Dominated Tampa Bay in Shutout, 7 Tampa Bay punts (1 INT), Bradshaw leads team rushing in half Jacobs’s carries

Week 4: Manhandled Kansas City, Manning injured, Steve Smith carries load, 5 Giants record sacks

Week 5: Essentially shut out Oakland, Bradshaw shines, defense strips Russell three times, Outgained Oakland by 359 yards

Week 6: Flopped against New Orleans, Brees nearly perfect, Rushing game forgotten, defense looks abysmal... and now Week 7.

Tom Coughlin does an incredible job getting the team ready every week for the game. He’s also very shrewd with his use of challenges. Besides that, as many Giants fans thought for so long, he really is a bad in-game coach. The Giants have been outcoached two weeks in a row. The Cardinals did not outplay the Giants on defense, rather they capitalized on a shockingly terrible Giants game plan. I’ve been critical of the play-calling all year. It is absolutely terrible. Let’s look at a few mistakes.

Through the first seven games of last season, with Plaxico Burress, the Giants averaged exactly 20 first downs per game on offense while allowing just over 13 per game on defense. They’d racked up 81 first downs through the air and 59 on the ground. Comparably, this year the Giants are again averaging exactly twenty first downs a game on offense; only this year, 89 first downs have been accumulated by passing plays with only 51 being picked up by running plays… and this is after losing our big play wide receiver. After an offseason in which the team’s biggest move was to shore up the defensive front against the run, the Giants have surrendered roughly 30% more first downs on the ground. For two games in a row, the Giants made no effort to establish the running game. Opposing defenses knows on which plays to expect pass and as Cris Collinsworth alertly deciphered through the use of the word “Omaha,” as much as when the ball is being snapped. The Giants haven’t utilized the screen nearly enough either.

This year, the Giants should succeeding through the running game and using Eli Manning’s arm to keep the defense honest. They don’t have the personnel to run this pass-heavy of an offense. In the three games I believe the Giants were outplayed, the Dallas game and the two losses, the Giants accumulated 14 first downs rushing. They totaled 37 in the other four. The passing numbers were much more consistent. The Giants win games by wearing their opponents down by running and running and running until the other team is forced to leave receivers open downfield.

Just like they did in the New Orleans game, the Giants took over on their first possession and ran the ball only after breaking a series of passes with the first incompletion of the game. Manning even passed to Madison Hedgecock before the Giants looked at their best early weapons: Steve Smith, Kevin Boss, and the 1-2 punch rushing attack featuring Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw. Jacobs ran for 42 yards on 4 carries when the Giants gave him the ball on 1^st and 10 but for some reason was used as the short yardage back, a role with which he’s never been truly comfortable. Facing a 2^nd and 2, the Giants tried a passing play and then a deep passing play before punting the ball away. Facing 4^th and 1 on Arizona’s 2 down by 10, the Giants elected to kick a field goal rather than going for the points. That was the situation to involve Boss or Hedgecock; worst case scenario, the defense has a 98 yard field to protect and a situation where a safety is more likely than a Cardinals score. No resilience + no guts = no glory.

Last night, nobody could step up and make key plays consistently. Manning threw deep for Hixon on the second possession and was intercepted when Hixon couldn’t make a play over Cardinals defense back Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Manningham dropped several key passes and, as Collinsworth pointed out, minimized Eli’s window by cutting to the sidelines on what should’ve been a touchdown. Smith failed to sell a flagrant pass interference in the fourth quarter. The Giants really could’ve used Sinorice Moss, and why the hell haven’t we given our one big bodied receiver, Ramses Barden, a chance to dress yet?

The Cardinals did not outplay the Giants last night. We picked up at least one first down on each of our first four possessions and came out of them with a 7-0 lead. After the defense made a key stop and put us in position to go up by two possessions, Gilbride dialed up consecutive running plays to Bradshaw which set up a 3^rd and 2- the perfect situation for another Bradshaw run. Last year, Ward or Bradshaw would have run it and picked up the first down; this year? Manning loses eleven yards on a sack. Both teams went three and out on the next possessions as well with the Giants brilliantly using Jacobs only on a delayed outside run to the left on 2^nd down which lost another four yards.

The Cardinals figured out the snap count and ultimately had such a good jump on the line that the Giants' offensive line were jumping early. The Giants never used this against them with a screen to Boss. The failure to keep Arizona on their heels put too much pressure on Eli Manning. Eli isn't Peyton. He's a great passer, but he remains behind the learning curve. The Giants succeed with Eli throwing to take advantage of the defense expecting something else. The play action didn't even have that.

To a longtime Giants fan who has grown accustomed to this inept offensive scheme, this is expected. The Giants are one of the few teams in football whose quarterback can wear a proverbial sign on his helmet that lights up “RUSH” or “PASS” based on the way he approaches the line of scrimmage. If someone whose experience is limited to two years of competitive football at the sub-High School level can anticipate what’s coming, so can the lackluster Arizona Cardinals defense. Now I’m not saying we need to run the Wildcat, but a little bit of deception couldn’t hurt us. These problems went by unnoticed against lesser teams, but they were still problems. Look at the Giants’ abysmal third and short conversion percentages from Week 1. Look back to Week 2 where the Giants needed a last second field goal to beat the Cowboys despite winning the turnover battle 4-0. We need to design a better game plan for these type of games which features Jacobs. I love the idea of using Bradshaw early and Jacobs late, but that doesn’t work if we abandon our rushing game in the first quarter, as we did in the game against New Orleans.

I give the defense a lot of credit for their performance last night. After six possessions, the defense had forced more three-and-outs and turnovers than the four first downs they’d surrendered. No, the loss isn’t on them.

The coaching staff has no resilience in their game plan. This is one of the reasons why I believe Jeremy Shockey was RIGHT to try to leave the Giants: they forget to play to the strengths of the personnel. Again. This game is a wakeup call that the Giants are simply not good enough to keep expecting to win on Eli Manning’s arm. We weren’t a passing team with Plaxico, so why try to become one now?

If there’s any consolation that can be taken from the last two games, here it is. The Giants are learning of their mistakes now, not in the Divisional round of the playoffs. These back-to-back losses set up a must-win next week against a divisional rival who will be coming off a short week of rest. It’s worth mentioning that in last year’s zero win playoff campaign, the Giants had defeated the four teams who ultimately made it to the AFC and NFC Championships. The Super Bowl winning campaign from the year before featured revenge wins over Dallas, Green Bay, and New England- three teams that beat Big Blue in the regular season.

There is no doubt that the Giants remain among the class of the NFL; they clearly have the talent on both sides of the ball to compete with any team in the league. It’s just time to get back to our style of football. I could never have imagined I'd be right with the crowd engulfing the team with boos a mere two weeks after dominating the Oakland Raiders in every part of the game. Something has to change. Now.

Abbreviated Week 7 Preview

Week 7 Picks

Vikings +6 over STEELERS

An undefeated team getting 6 points? I liked the Steelers in this game all week but cannot imagine that Winfield is worth this many points against a Pittsburgh team that is this much worse than last year. Of course, as I write this, I also realize that I’m banking on Brad Childress to defeat Vegas. Ugh.

Why shouldn’t you take the Vikings? Minnesota is coming off of two very physical games and travelling to Pittsburgh exactly one week before the legendary Favre returns to Lambeau game. Do you think losing this game will make the Vikings sweat at all? Stay away from this game, but once again: I’m not ready to lay six points against an undefeated team.

BUCCANEERS +16 over Patriots (OU 45)

I’m not ready to trust Tom Brady this season in laying 16 points. I think the Patriots are going to score, a lot. Sixteen points in Old England though? This should be the game that the Tampa Bay running game finally gets going. The key word in this pick is OVER.

Chargers -6 over CHIEFS

It’s easy to forget how close the Chargers came to losing to the Raiders in Week 1 and being 1-4 right now. The Chiefs are coming off of a win and looking as good as they’ve looked all season. This game comes down to whether or not you believe that the Chargers were anything close to what we thought they’d be in the preseason. I do. Lay the six and the Norv Turner handicap.

TEXANS -3 over 49ers

In a big statement game for both teams. I love that my breakout pick is stuck with Crabtree’s debut. It made sense since the preseason. This is Houston’s chance to go over .500. They’re definitely good enough to do this on the road. HOW BOUT THEM TEXANS???

Packers -9 over BROWNS

I think the Packers are so much better than the Browns. I’m thrilled that the line has risen from a suspiciously low opening spread. I’m terrified of this as a trap game, so avoiding this as a bold pick. I am having a lot of trouble imagining any way that the Browns can outplay the Packers. This should be a blowout. Don’t let me down Aaron.

RAMS +15 over Colts (OU 45.5)

A chance to take 15 points and pick against the Colts again, this time picking the worst team in football? Hell yeah! Spags has the St. Louis defense ready for the #1 team on ESPN.com and the best quarterback I’ve seen in my lifetime. Don’t let this game fool you that the Rams are any better than the #32 team on ESPN… but they may very well show up to play.

Jets -7 over RAIDERS

Mark Sanchez really needs this game to stay in the media’s good graces. What franchise would know better about an undefeated start vanishing than the team that once lost eight consecutive games after starting 8-0? The Raiders big day was last week against Philadelphia- Cable got off from his assault chargers. I like New York here.

PANTHERS -7 over Bills

Last year I learned the hard way never to knowingly put money on Ryan Fitzpatrick. Take out Marvin Lewis and throw in Dick Jauron? Carolina wins this one easy and is all the sudden back to respectability at .500.

COWBOYS -4 over Falcons

This is a textbook battle of great talent with terrible coaching vs. great coaching with lackluster talent., made all the more exciting that each quarterback has two four letter names. The home team usually manages to find a way to win in these games. Dallas’s defense is really good at keying in to stop the run early, not to mention the Cowboys had yet to lose to an otherwise defeated team until the Saints beat my beloved Giants last week. This game is going to be on Matt Ryan’s shoulders. He’s good, but he’s not all the way there yet. This is Atlanta’s “come down to earth” game.

BENGALS PK over Bears

This one goes to the home team. I do think the Bears are a better and more complete team, but I like Cincy to come away with this one. Look for 3 passing touchdowns from Carson Palmer.

Saints -7 over DOLPHINS

Do I think the Wildcat will have success over New Orleans? Absolutely. New Orleans’s offense is really, really good though. I’ll take the Saints’ talent advantage over Miami’s slight coaching advantage any day. If the Saints demolish the Dolphins in this one, they become the clear team to beat right now.

GIANTS -7 over Cardinals

Two years ago the Giants lost regular season games against the Cowboys (twice), Packers, Redskins, Vikings, and Patriots to finish 10-6. They beat the Redskins once in the regular season and beat every other team (besides the 8-8 Vikings who didn’t make the playoffs) on their road to winning the Super Bowl. Last year the 12-4 Giants had beaten every team who won in the Divisional playoffs (Ravens, Steelers, Eagles, Cardinals) and didn’t win a game in the playoffs. This is my consolation after last week.

Let’s look at this game. Boldin’s hurt, even though Chad Ocho Cinco reports that he will suit up to play, and the Giants are hungry for a big win after getting embarrassed. Six out of seven days in a week, Coughlin is the best coach in football. If the Giants can get going early, this is going to be a long day for Arizona fans. I’m expecting Brandon Jacobs to rack up 150 yards and at least one, maybe two touchdowns in a blowout.

Eagles -7 over REDSKINS

Preseason, I really liked Washington to win this game in an upset. Both teams are coming off humiliating losses to the cellar of the AFC West. I think the Eagles take this one to Washington. I’m really curious to see what Sherman Lewis can do with the Redskins’ offense after being there only two weeks. They do say that sometimes a fresh set of eyes are best.

Part II of the Rankings is almost ready. III and IV will come out this week.

Last Week: 8-6

Season: 48-42

Bold Picks

Last Week 2-2

Season 12-12

Note: I am on a nine game losing streak in picking the Sunday and Monday Night games.

Catching Our Breath: Part I

This is Part I of a four part entry with me ranking each team, recalling my preseason projections, assessing where each team is now, grading my preseason assessment, and characterizing every team as someone or something from either pop culture or my life. Please Enjoy.

32. St. Louis Rams

What I Thought: The Rams are a one man show on offense with a very good running back in Steven Jackson. Defensively, Steve Spagnuolo would take a few weeks (or months) to put together a decent defense.

What I Think: Spags is doing really well, but the Rams are garbage. Kyle Boller is an eight on the shaky scale. Marc Bulger is just plain ineffective. The Rams can salvage something from the season if they can win a couple games. They will. Given how bad this team is, anything better than 0-16 is somewhat a success.

Who are they? Fat kid Drew Barrymore dances with in Wedding Singer. Really don’t have anything going for them.

Alisberg Evaluation: A-

31. Cleveland Browns

What I Thought: Eric Mangini would have first year luck and make the Browns pretty competitive in their division, despite projecting them to be the worst team in it. I projected the Browns to finish around 7-9.

What I Think: The Browns can’t run the ball. They can’t throw the ball. They can’t stop the run. They can’t stop the pass. The best chance the Browns have of winning a game this season is if they can find a way to consistently allow field goals so they can give Josh Cribbs more chances to run the ball back all the way. The success of this year’s Browns season will be determined by the number of draft picks they can stockpile for next year.

Alisberg Evaluation: C

Who are they? Bilo Sagdayev. Borat’s retarded brother. The Browns are nothing more than the butt of insulting jokes this year. They’re better off not showing up.

30. Kansas City Chiefs

What I Thought: The Chiefs would make strides now that they have a coach who knows how to use the Internet. Still, the Chiefs would flounder with Matt Cassel behind a patchwork offensive line and only one talented offensive weapon left to finish fourth in the second worst division in football.

What I Think: The Chiefs are the worst team in football that play the sport anything like it’s supposed to be played. Their offense is based on their success running the ball, as limited as that success is. Kansas City has some of the right pieces on both sides of the ball. They are going the right direction and will improve for the next few years under GM Scott Pioli.

Alisberg Evaluation: B+

Who are they? Clifford Franklin, The Replacements. The Chiefs are the guy who can get into the right place at the right time but can’t come up with the big play. Coach Todd Haley is doing a great job; this team has made a lot of progress.

29. Tennessee Titans

What I Thought: The Titans would be hindered by the loss of Albert Haynesworth and the fatigue of quarterback Kerry Collins. The Titans would still win games with their 1-2 punch at running back with Chris Johnson and LenDale White. Tennessee would get close to the playoffs but not be any real threat to winning any games in January. I projected the Titans to finish around .500.

What I Think: There are a lot of problems in Tennessee. The Titans do not have a competent quarterback or anybody close to replacing Haynesworth. One of those problems can be fixed, however, as Tennessee looks like a Top 5 draft choice is a real possibility.

Alisberg Evaluation: D+

Who are they? Michigan Wolverines ca. September 2, 2007. My how the mighty have fallen. The seven game losing streak (playoff game against Baltimore included) on the heels of a 13-3 season is just like Michigan’s collapse against Appalachian State.

28. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

What I Thought: Tampa Bay could keep games close with a running game featuring Cadillac Williams, Earnest Graham, and the third best running back from the Giants’ Earth Wind and Fire trio. Tampa Bay’s defense, however, wouldn’t be able to stop a broken clock. The Bucs would suffer the consequences of a terrible decision in firing Jon Gruden and finish dead last in the NFC South.

What I Think: Pretty much everything I thought preseason, minus the success running the ball because of Tampa Bay’s awful offensive line. Josh Johnson brings me back to the days of Shaun King. He’s a better quarterback and deserves more credit.

Alisberg Evaluation: B

Who are they? That Stereotypical College Political Activist. The Glazer family must have thought Raheem Morris could do a better job than Jon Gruden. Gruden, who somehow took a really bad team to a 6-2 record in the beginning of last season, made sure that Tampa Bay showed up to be competitive every week. Morris has had a chance in exactly one game to date. Just as the Bucs front office labeled last season a choke and figured some change had to be made, the stereotypical college political activist put an unqualified Socialist who probably couldn’t make a C in an Intro to Economics course in the White House.

27. Oakland Raiders

What I Thought: The Raiders offense would make great strides this year. As a team, Oakland would average well over 100 yards per game and finish 2^nd in the AFC West with a record of about 6-10. JaMarcus Russell would make strides with a downfield threat in Darrius Heyward-Bey and look like a poor man’s Donovan McNabb.

What I Think: The Raiders Giants game of two weeks ago reminded me of the South Park episode in which the Colorado Avalanche destroy a bunch of elementary school kids, though I think the elementary school team put up a better fight. The Raiders are a joke and, as most teams prepare for a game on Sunday, the Raiders are preparing to learn whether or not their coach is facing charges for assault. There are some serious problems in Oakland. The Raiders are the worst 2-4 team I’ve seen in years.

Alisberg Evaluation: C+

Who are They? David Apolskis (Tweener), Prison Break. Tweener was an idiot who was in way over his head. He tried to talk tough but was manipulated by everyone from inmates to law enforcement. Tweener’s fate on a given day was decided almost exclusively by the mercy of the people he’s associating, just as Oakland’s success is best defined by whether their opponent shows up to play.

26. Detroit Lions

What I Thought: The Lions offense and defense would both be a little bit better than last season. I expected Detroit to finish around 4-12. I would’ve given Rod Marinelli another shot.

What I Think: What a difference a year makes. Detroit has yet to roll over for a full game as they did so often last season. Detroit’s offense has made great strides; even in the much improved NFC North. Stafford has made mistakes but impressed me. Jim Schwartz has brought life to this franchise that had reached the lowest of the lows. The defense is still not good enough to take even the biggest of point spreads.

Alisberg Evaluation: B-

Who are they? Rudy Ruettiger, Rudy. The Lions are far from a threat to do anything significant in the playoffs, or finish in the vicinity of .500 this year. Their improvement is still really fun to watch. Coming off of an 0-16 season, the Lions have become somewhat of a popular team to root for this year, just like Rudy became on Notre Dame.

25. Washington Redskins

What I Thought: The Redskins came into this season with the least talent on paper in the toughest division in football. QB Jason Campbell would finally have an impressive season this year. Albert Haynesworth and DeAngelo Hall would turn this defense into one of the most feared defenses in the league. Overall, Washington would end up snagging a Wild Card spot thanks to a softer schedule outside the division.

What I Think: The defense has been everything I’d expected. Washington ranks in the Top 5 in opponents yards per play, opponents yards per game, and opponents points per game. Of course, it doesn’t hurt when you haven’t faced an opponent coming into a game with even one win after 6 weeks. The offense, on the other hand, has been abysmal. The Redskins have no offensive line and thus cannot run or pass the ball. Cooley, Moss, Portis, and Randle-El should be much more successful. If Washington’s offense can at least become average, they will be a very dangerous team. They’ve played down to their competition in every game since Week 1. Let’s see if they can break that.

Alisberg Evaluation: D

Who are they? Sick Boy, Van Wilder. There is always something not working for the Redskins. Just as they appear to get some success passing the ball, Campbell throws an interception. It’s maddening. Let me add on to that by classifying Dan Snyder separately from the rest of the franchise. Dan Snyder is Evan from The Butterfly Effect. Snyder keeps thinking that he can fix everything by changing just a little something about the franchise, only to make the franchise look worse. His actions have led to a clever article from The Onion making fun of just how bad they are. Snyder needs to relinquish his controlling share of the team; the man does not understand how to build a winning football team. Removing play-calling duties from Jim Zorn won’t help. Zorn is a great play-caller, if anything, that should be his one role with the team.

The Double Standard

Today, many NFL games are decided by the slimmest of margins and often quite simply who can do the best job of limiting mistakes. In a sport where eleven guys are trying to work together and do their job better than eleven other guys can do theirs, mistakes happen on almost every play. Coaches make mistakes at all levels. Players make mistakes. In fact, we’ve reached the point where players are fined and penalized for avoiding questions from the media about their mistakes. The public has a long memory; I’m sure that every real sports fan can tell you about a handful of mistakes in their team’s history (if not many more) that have been eating away at the fan base ever since. Mistakes are a part of the game and a part of humanity, and we should not expect them to disappear anytime soon.

There is one exception, however. For some reason, big league commissioners decided long ago that they were going to try to convince the athletes and the general public that for some reason, putting on a black and white striped referee shirt eliminates human error. In baseball, players and coaches are subject to ejection for questioning a call. In basketball, players are given technical fouls and again subject to ejection and possibly a suspension. In football, it is much less common to see a big dispute over a call. Usually the home fans either yell expletives at the referee or rejoice. Before the coach’s challenge, that was pretty much it. The coach’s challenge and instant replay reduces the error by a little, but not enough. Subjective penalties are called and not called which changes the game and goes unnoticed.

Two Sundays ago, the Giants dominated the Raiders in every facet of the game. With the offense clicking, the defense shut down the Raiders offense. Were it not for a horrendous call that gave the Raiders a first down inside the Giants’ 5 yard line, the Giants would have forced four turnovers while allowing only six first downs enough to earn them a second shutout in the season. Nobody has talked about that since the game.

So why do we try to fool ourselves into thinking referees are perfect? Where do referees go after the game when players are forced to sit through press conferences with people desperate to turn any offhanded remark into a front page headline? The NFL, just like so many other leagues, is afraid to admit a failure. It’s sad, but it is true.

Here is my proposal. Considering we keep track of every statistic in sports, why don’t we examine how accurately referees call their games. Moreover, why don’t we give refs a chance to explain their calls to the media instead of the awkward long-winded explanations that get drowned in boos and cheers. Doesn’t the current system, if nothing else, only provide conspiracy theorists with a legitimate reason to wonder if games are fixed? There have been bad calls. There have been great calls. The important thing to remember is that the men officiating the games are human and should be treated as such. If they make a mistake, they should be held accountable for it. Refs gets paid to cite mistakes of players; surely players should be allowed to voice their opinions about possible mistakes of the referees.

The Raiders were given a second chance after Fargas’s fumble. Last Monday Night, Will Allen was called for pass interference against Braylon Edwards out of nowhere. It turned out to help the Dolphins and ultimately give them the precise amount of time they needed to win the game. In yesterday’s excuse for a game between the Giants and the Saints, Corey Webster was flagged for pass interference merely because New Orleans receiver Marques Colston tripped over his own feet. Questionable officiating gave the Dallas Cowboys the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XXX instead of the Indianapolis Colts. From a more personal memory that still brings pain to any real Giants fan, who can forget the flagrant pass interference no call in the Giants 49ers 2003 playoff game that changed the culture of New York Giants football until Week 16 of the 2007 season when Ahmad Bradshaw’s 88 yard touchdown run in Buffalo shifted the momentum back to our favor.

Who were these mysterious men in the black and white shirts that robbed our teams? The NFL even issued an apology to the Giants for the blown call in the 49ers game. But what's an apology in the record books? Nobody really took the blame for a bad call until Ed Hochuli last season. Hochuli is my favorite referee right now. Nobody else can silence the crowd for as long as Hochuli.

I feel that publicizing everything is a much better approach. Commentators can and do assess the calls. How can we exclude the players and coaches from doing the same? I feel that giving the public a chance to interact with the referees, the furious fans whose team got the short end of the stick will feel, if nothing else, at least a little better that someone with a name and a face owned up to a mistake.

Week 6 Picks

Week 6 Picks

The Wow I Need to Get Back to Sleep Edition

REDSKINS -6 over Chiefs

Washington needs to make a statement game. Their O-Line can hold up against KC.

Giants +3 over SAINTS

The Giants are the most complete, most underrated, and overall best team in football right now. Their pass defense has allowed an unbelievable 61 less yards per game than the #2 ranked pass defense of the Carolina Panthers. Offensively, Eli Manning is making the best throws of his career and has earned a QB rating higher than anybody in the league not named Manning. The Saints need turnovers to stay in this one. The Giants are too well-coached to let the home crowd really affect them. It’s going to be a great game.

Panthers -3 over BUCS

Neither of these teams are as bad as their records indicate. Tampa Bay is getting much better every week. I think the Panthers are a better team even though I think Tampa is going to show up.

Browns +14 over STEELERS

Browns haven't been blown out since they gave DA the ball

Texans +5.5 over BENGALS

Houston needs this game too much. It’s about time to see some production out of the Texans’ rushing offense.

Ravens +3 over VIKINGS

A battle of two of the only three complete teams in football right now (the other one being the Giants). Baltimore is a better team. Big game for Joe Flacco.

Rams +10 over JAGUARS

Rams? I’m picking the Rams? In Jacksonville? After the Jags got whooped by Seattle? I better just move on before I change my mind.

Lions +14 over PACKERS

Jim Schwartz has done a great job changing the culture of this Detroit Lions football team. Without a healthy Calvin Johnson, Green Bay will get fewer possessions. 14 points is a lot in this one; it could go either way.

RAIDERS +15 over Eagles

Warning sign #1 about a trouble week coming in your NFL picks: 3 combined spreads add up to +39 for the teams I’ve picked. I think Antonio Pierce lit a fire under the Raider team just before the Eagles come to town. Oakland keeps this close in the first half, but I’m not siding with over 80% of the public this week. Oakland cannot afford to be embarrassed again.

Cardinals +3 over SEAHAWKS

I like Warner in this game. It’ll be exciting to see if Seattle actually does have a dynamic passing attack with the return of QB Matt Hasselbeck. Last week, he looked really good.

PATRIOTS -9 over Titans

This and the Eagles game in Oakland are the two games I hate most going into this week. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tennessee shows up and runs all over New England. That being said, a dominant running game is effective when you have a defense that can give the ball back to your offense without surrendering points. This Titans team isn’t there.

JETS -10 over Bills

Play the over.

Bears +3.5 over FALCONS

Chicago hasn’t gotten their credit. This is a very good Bears football team. Granted, so far their one loss has come on a Sunday Night game.

CHARGERS -3.5 over Broncos

The Chargers need this game to have a chance to win a division they should’ve locked up three months ago. Coaching disparities aside, San Diego will easily put up at least half of what Denver’s allowed the rest of the season. Denver has been very fortunate so far. They’ve yet to play against a good team playing well. This will be a real test on the road.

He's Back

            What’s the worst part about going 4-10? For me, someone who takes so much pride in picking winners, it’s the flippant sarcastic remarks from friends and family so proud that my picks couldn’t beat their 20/20 hindsight. I’m not going to lie; last week got to me- so much to the point that I’d bet my friend Tim I’d miss no more than half of what I missed the week before, allowing myself only five incorrect picks in Week 5.

            On Saturday, I spent 6 hours in Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson airport and took off for New York with my Yahoo College Pick’em on track to get two out of the first six games correct. By the time I landed, I was 3-3 against the spread. I didn’t get another game wrong. My 14-3 against the spread record catapulted me into the 99^th percentile and 8^th overall in the state of Connecticut. It also cemented my lead of the group “Fans of Louisiana-Monroe,” the least competitive group I could find.

            I wrote my picks last week at Sunday Morning, only about seven hours before planning to leave for the Giants game. Needless to say, this week I did a lot better. Let’s see how I did.

 

 Vikings -10.5 over RAMS

            I wouldn’t be surprised if Spagnuolo has a plan to shut down Adrian Peterson right away and give the Vikings trouble in the first half. The Vikings are a much better team though and can only be beaten by themselves in this game.

            Peterson and Taylor had come into this game averaging roughly 4.5 yards per carry. Against the woeful Rams, they only averaged 3.7, almost a full yard short. The Vikings cruised to an easy win.

Bengals +8.5 over RAVENS

            Palmer’s always done well playing against Baltimore. What about this year’s Bengals team gives any indication that will change? I’m expecting Baltimore to win the game but would be less surprised to see the Bengals win than to see the Ravens win by more than two touchdowns.

            Right, right, right, right. I’m patting myself on the back right now.

Redskins +4.5 over PANTHERS

            This is a battle of two underrated teams, more specifically two high-potential offenses that haven’t clicked this year. It’s a must-win for two playoff-caliber teams which means that we are going to see both teams looking the best they’ve looked all season. It’s a shame that this game is being played this week, both teams would have been really nice plays. This can go either way.

            Though I didn’t watch the game, the Redskins showed up in the first half, but let the Panthers steal the game in the second half. Carolina should have gone for it on fourth and one in Washington territory in the first quarter. They need some big plays around which they can rally. Carolina has a very good running game and could’ve even taken a shot downfield. I really don’t like the ultraconservative play calls when you’re looking at 0-4. They made a better decision by going for the touchdown on a 4^th and goal from the 1. Even though they didn’t get it, it led to points. These were two well-matched teams, held back from being great because they need to capitalize on their opportunities.

LIONS +11 over Steelers

            I think Detroit is ready to play four quarters of good football against a good team. They got halfway there last week. I’m expecting either Culpepper or Stafford to lead Detroit to at least 20 points, but we’ll see if that’s enough. Also, I strongly caution anyone about taking the Steelers in a survival pool.

            Detroit scored the 20 points I predicted and played to the level of the defending Super Bowl Champions. They picked up 3 more first downs than Pittsburgh (converting 11 on third down) and were only outgained by 9 yards on offense. Detroit held the ball longer than Pittsburgh, in two ways. The Lions were on offense for just over 32:30, but Culpepper took 7 sacks for 57 yards because he didn’t get rid of the ball on time. The Lions stood toe-to-toe with Pittsburgh but couldn’t score an offensive touchdown for 55 minutes. Almost, Lions.

CHIEFS +8 over Cowboys

            I had the Cowboys penciled in here before remembering that I’d be betting on Tony Romo and Wade Phillips to arrive at Arrowhead Stadium and lay eight points against a team determined to finish their four game streak against the NFC East better than they started it. The Eagles and Giants each destroyed the Chiefs. The Cowboys can be as good as either of them but will not show up to play. Chiefs 24 Cowboys 17.

            Bingo. Dallas wasn’t careful with the ball, fumbling four times. I’ve lost my confidence in Jason Garrett. Tashard Choice should’ve had twice as many carries. Even before they dealt Owens, Dallas was built around running the football effectively. It’s inconceivable to me that they’d limit their only healthy running back to eight carries against the Chiefs. Dallas would not have been able to get away with this one in any state outside of Missouri, even with Miles Austin’s 250 yards.

GIANTS -15.5 over Raiders

            The two doubts crossing anyone’s mind leading up to this week should have been “Will Eli Manning continue the 2^nd longest active NFL streak for starts with the same team?” and “Will Kevin Gilbride pull another backdoor cover out of nowhere?” There is no doubt in my mind that the Giants will have at least a 17 point lead at some point in this game. I trust Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw to run the clock out against Oakland’s defense. Rich Seubert is healthy again, and I personally am going to be giving JaMarcus Russell nightmares in my Osi Umenyiora jersey from the back of Section 107.

            The final score really should have been 48-0. The Giants won this game from the time both teams took the field. If you recall in my New York Giants offense season preview, I wrote that the Giants have always misused Brandon Jacobs. I’m convinced I was right. Jacobs needs to become the finisher, as he was back when the offense still featured Tiki Barber. The Giants deserved the shutout and were robbed by poor officiating, but more on that later.

EAGLES -15.5 over Bucs

            Even if Tampa Bay puts up a fight in the first half, the Eagles are bound to get some breaks and win this game with long plays.

            Tampa Bay put up less of a fight against the Eagles in the first half than Terry McAuley’s crew. McNabb completed touchdown passes of 51, 20, and 40 yards. Tampa Bay ran 27 more plays than Philadelphia. Josh Johnson had an effective game but was responsible for turning the ball over four times in field goal range. The Bucs played the Eagles very well. There is improvement in Tampa Bay.

BILLS -6 over Browns

            I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns into a statement game for either one of these teams. We’ll see if Anderson can turn this offense into anything like the 2007 success now that they’ve lost Braylon Edwards along with Kellen Winslow.

            My only incorrect 1:00 game. The Bills played a better football game than the Browns. They outgained Cleveland by almost 100 yards and even with the no huddle offense. They were flat-out outcoached. Buffalo committed 10 more penalties, turned the ball over four more times (including missed fourth down conversions).  Terrell Owens didn’t catch a ball in the second half. Buffalo picked the wrong fourth downs to go for it. It’s time to give J.P. Losman a second chance and try to salvage the season. Jauron has got to go. Not only has he now in his coaching career gone for a first down in the second quarter on a 4^th and 24, he also called for a QB kneel on fourth down back when he was in Chicago. Mr. Wilson, your coach does not understand the sport. Fire him.

Falcons +3 over 49ERS

            These are two teams that play the game the same way. I think Matt Ryan is going to rise to the occasion against a very good 49er defense. Michael Turner is due after resting on the bye week. I’m very interested to see what the 49ers do on offense in this game. However, I don’t think either team in this game is going to look as good as Washington and Carolina will look.

            Ok, Atlanta looked really good. Ryan won the game for Atlanta by throwing for over 300 yards and posting a QB rating of 110 against what usually is one of the best defenses in football. As I thought, Turner had by far his best game to date by averaging almost a full yard per carry more than he’d averaged coming into the game and scoring three touchdowns, one more than his total in the three previous games. The Falcons are a very well coached team; I think Mike Mularkey is the best play-caller in football right now.

SEAHAWKS -2 over Jaguars

            All things being equal, the Jaguars are a better team than Seattle. All things are not going to be equal. Matt Hasselbeck looks to go 2-0 in his return to the team.

If Hasselbeck does not play, however, my pick changes to

Seahawks -2 over Jaguars

            Hasselbeck plays: Seattle Wins. Seneca Wallace doesn’t make me quite as secure.

            What a return for Matt Hasselbeck. Game ball goes to Seattle’s run defense for shutting down Maurice Jones-Drew and thus silencing Jacksonville’s offense. Jacksonville was held to under 200 yards of total offense, just one week after accumulating 442. Jacksonville looked terrible in the last three quarters.

Texans +5.5 over CARDINALS

            Considering Houston beat Tennessee on the road, and I rank the Titans higher than the Cardinals, I’ll stick it out this one with my Texans. They need to show up and win in Arizona. I’ll go out on a limb and say one more thing too.

Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals OVER 50.5 (Overall Record will not include Over/Under picks). This game is going to come down to who can score touchdowns instead of field goals.

            I wasn’t very comfortable with this pick from the beginning. To Houston’s credit (and my own credit by the transitive property of arrogant sports bettors), the Texans outgained the Cardinals in the air and on the ground, only to come up short by a yard. So many things could have gone differently. Don’t count Houston out yet.

Patriots -3.5 over BRONCOS

            The toughest pick of the week. Brady’s always struggled against Denver. What about this year’s Broncos team gives any indication that will change? I really don’t know. New England is nowhere near as good as they have been. I’ll be the first to say that I think Bill Belichick is over the hill. I would be surprised, however, if he doesn’t have Josh McDaniels’s number during this game. My stomach cringes just a little less picking the Patriots to put Denver in the loss column than picking New England to look worse than anybody Denver has beaten so far. It’s midnight, Cinderella.

            The Patriots experienced the type of meltdown that I’d never expected to see from a Bill Belichick team. I turned this game on when New England led 17-7 and knew I’d made the wrong pick. I still don’t think Denver is very good. Coach McDaniels has done a terrific job so far, and his celebration was thrilling to watch. New England did not look very good this week.

TITANS +4 over Colts

            Peyton Manning is playing better than any other quarterback in football. I said it here. ESPN’s Adam Schefter said it here. I agree with a lot of the article- especially his seventh point which was my tenth prediction going into the season. My fun with hyperlinks aside, Jeff Fisher knows what Peyton Manning can do to his defense. He will not let that happen. It’s time for Indianapolis to come back to earth. Peyton can only do so much. What’s even more convincing, Bill Simmons is picking Indianapolis as his favorite play of the week. Tennessee 30 Indianapolis 13.

            The loss of Albert Haynesworth really crippled Tennessee. Last year they were an overrated 13-3 team but a 13-3 team none-the-less. Last season they outgained opponents by a total of 320 yards. As a point of comparison, let’s look at the best teams over the past few years to not make the playoffs.

2008: New England Patriots +903 Dallas Cowboys +803

2007: Philadelphia Eagles +743 and in my opinion the best team in NFL history to not make the playoffs

2005: San Diego Chargers +619

            The difference is last year, Tennessee had a turnover ratio of +14, this year, through five games, the Titans are at -5. Tennessee is not an explosive enough team to win with a negative turnover ratio.

            Finally, I would like to concede that I was wrong about the AFC South. The Indianapolis Colts are the team to beat in the division (even though they are not a Top 5 team in football). I was wrong. I was wrong. I was wrong.

Jets -2 over DOLPHINS

            The only sign not pointing to a blowout here is the history of Jets struggles in Miami. Still, the Jets have the advantage on both sides of the ball and should cruise to a blowout win. The better team has won in every game Al Riveron has refereed so far this season. The Jets will continue that trend.

 

            I went against my gut in this game. The Jets played well. The Dolphins played to the absolute best of their ability. Coach Sparano and offensive coordinator Dan Henning really couldn’t have done any better of a job. Braylon Edwards makes the Jets much better, but the bailout pass interference call in the fourth quarter actually came back to bite the Jets in the back.

Much More Coming this week.