Week 5 Picks

NFL Week 5 Picks

I'm also predicting that the current standard deviation between my Week 2 power rankings and ESPN.com's active one of 6.46 is the highest it will be all season.

Season:

31-31

Bold Picks

7-9

 

Vikings -10.5 over RAMS

            I wouldn’t be surprised if Spagnuolo has a plan to shut down Adrian Peterson right away and give the Vikings trouble in the first half. The Vikings are a much better team though and can only be beaten by themselves in this game.

Bengals +8.5 over RAVENS

            Palmer’s always done well playing against Baltimore. What about this year’s Bengals team gives any indication that will change? I’m expecting Baltimore to win the game but would be less surprised to see the Bengals win than to see the Ravens win by more than two touchdowns.

Redskins +4.5 over PANTHERS

            This is a battle of two underrated teams, more specifically two high-potential offenses that haven’t clicked this year. It’s a must-win for two playoff-caliber teams which means that we are going to see both teams looking the best they’ve looked all season. It’s a shame that this game is being played this week, both teams would have been really nice plays. This can go either way.

LIONS +11 over Steelers

            I think Detroit is ready to play four quarters of good football against a good team. They got halfway there last week. I’m expecting either Culpepper or Stafford to lead Detroit to at least 20 points, but we’ll see if that’s enough. Also, I strongly caution anyone about taking the Steelers in a survival pool.

CHIEFS +8 over Cowboys

            I had the Cowboys penciled in here before remembering that I’d be betting on Tony Romo and Wade Phillips to arrive at Arrowhead Stadium and lay eight points against a team determined to finish their four game streak against the NFC East better than they started it. The Eagles and Giants each destroyed the Chiefs. The Cowboys can be as good as either of them but will not show up to play. Chiefs 24 Cowboys 17.

GIANTS -15.5 over Raiders

            The two doubts crossing anyone’s mind leading up to this week should have been “Will Eli Manning continue the 2^nd longest active NFL streak for starts with the same team?” and “Will Kevin Gilbride pull another backdoor cover out of nowhere?” There is no doubt in my mind that the Giants will have at least a 17 point lead at some point in this game. I trust Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw to run the clock out against Oakland’s defense. Rich Seubert is healthy again, and I personally am going to be giving JaMarcus Russell nightmares in my Osi Umenyiora jersey from the back of Section 107.

EAGLES -15.5 over Bucs

            Even if Tampa Bay puts up a fight in the first half, the Eagles are bound to get some breaks and win this game with long plays.

BILLS -6 over Browns

            I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns into a statement game for either one of these teams. We’ll see if Anderson can turn this offense into anything like the 2007 success now that they’ve lost Braylon Edwards along with Kellen Winslow.

Falcons +3 over 49ERS

            These are two teams that play the game the same way. I think Matt Ryan is going to rise to the occasion against a very good 49er defense. Michael Turner is due after resting on the bye week. I’m very interested to see what the 49ers do on offense in this game. However, I don’t think either team in this game is going to look as good as Washington and Carolina will look.

SEAHAWKS -2 over Jaguars

            All things being equal, the Jaguars are a better team than Seattle. All things are not going to be equal. Matt Hasselbeck looks to go 2-0 in his return to the team.

If Hasselbeck does not play, however, my pick changes to

Seahawks -2 over Jaguars

            Hasselbeck plays: Seattle Wins. Seneca Wallace doesn’t make me quite as secure.

Texans +5.5 over CARDINALS

            Considering Houston beat Tennessee on the road, and I rank the Titans higher than the Cardinals, I’ll stick it out this one with my Texans. They need to show up and win in Arizona. I’ll go out on a limb and say one more thing too.

Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals OVER 50.5 (Overall Record will not include Over/Under picks). This game is going to come down to who can score touchdowns instead of field goals.

Patriots -3.5 over BRONCOS

            The toughest pick of the week. Brady’s always struggled against Denver. What about this year’s Broncos team gives any indication that will change? I really don’t know. New England is nowhere near as good as they have been. I’ll be the first to say that I think Bill Belichick is over the hill. I would be surprised, however, if he doesn’t have Josh McDaniels’s number during this game. My stomach cringes just a little less picking the Patriots to put Denver in the loss column than picking New England to look worse than anybody Denver has beaten so far. It’s midnight, Cinderella.

TITANS +4 over Colts

            Peyton Manning is playing better than any other quarterback in football. I said it here. ESPN’s Adam Schefter said it here. I agree with a lot of the article- especially his seventh point which was my tenth prediction going into the season. My fun with hyperlinks aside, Jeff Fisher knows what Peyton Manning can do to his defense. He will not let that happen. It’s time for Indianapolis to come back to earth. Peyton can only do so much. What’s even more convincing, Bill Simmons is picking Indianapolis as his favorite play of the week. Tennessee 30 Indianapolis 13.

Jets -2 over DOLPHINS

            The only sign not pointing to a blowout here is the history of Jets struggles in Miami. Still, the Jets have the advantage on both sides of the ball and should cruise to a blowout win. The better team has won in every game Al Riveron has refereed so far this season. The Jets will continue that trend.