QB Power Rankings

The NFL QB Power Rankings... and my Top 5 fallacies about ranking NFL QBs

This ranks the quarterback, not the offense, not the production, just the quarterback. As always, comments and any feedback to me at twitter.com/alisberg are appreciated. Week 5 Picks to come shortly.

 

32. Josh Johnson (TB) Josh Johnson has no business being a starting quarterback in the NFL, at least right now. Johnson has a ways to go before being as good as now third-stringer Byron Leftwich. The Bucs aren’t going anywhere with Johnson at the helm.

31. JaMarcus Russell (Oak) JaMarcus Russell was a very dangerous college quarterback who lacks the intelligence to run an NFL offense, at least today. The Raiders are a terribly coached team whose best leader was cut in the offseason. Russell’s decision and failure to understand the game is costing the Raiders, even in the running game. I expected better than a 42 Passer Rating from him this season.

30. Chad Henne (Mia) Tyler Thigpen will be ranked higher if and when he takes Miami’s starting job. Henne made the best out of a nice situation this weekend and didn’t let Buffalo back into the game. Without doing anything flashy, Henne completed 64% of his passes, picked up a first down with his feet, and put Miami in the win column.

29. Matt Stafford (Det) There are Pro Bowl seasons down the road for this past draft’s first overall pick, but they have not arrived yet. Stafford leads what new Lions Coach Jim Schwartz is turning into an offense that can put up points from anywhere on the field. He still makes far too many mistakes. Realistically, Stafford should not be leading an NFL offense this season. Hopefully it will help him grow, not regress.

 

28. Kyle Boller (Stl) Kyle Boller is as bad as an NFL quarterback should be in order to be starting for a team. He’s a very, very capable backup for Marc Bulger and in my opinion is the better of the two. Boller’s heart is exactly what the Rams need. The Rams are terrible right now. Spagnuolo is making progress with the defense. Boller and Steven Jackson could get the Rams good enough to being competitive within their division. I’m impressed by what I’ve seen from Boller.

27. Matt Cassel (KC) Commonly Accepted NFL Fallacy #1: A team will win more games than another team because they have a better quarterback. Matt Cassel wasn’t the undiscovered gem behind Palmer, Leinart, and Brady over all these years. Last year, he operated an incredibly efficient machine after being groomed for three years to be ready to do so. Any Top 16 quarterback could’ve taken the 2008 Patriots farther than they went last year. Cassel must really love Kansas City though. Last year they gave him a chance to start, this year a starting job. Too bad they don’t have an offense to go with him.

26. Derek Anderson (Cle) Derek Anderson is a huge upgrade for the Browns over Brady Quinn, especially before the Edwards deal. Anderson has an arm to stretch out opposing defenses. It’s going to be interesting to see if the Browns rally behind Anderson or if they give up on the season early. If the former is true, the Browns are good enough to get some wins this year… but that’s on the players and Coach Mangini.

25. Tony Romo (Dal) Tony Romo is the worst starting quarterback on any team with a shot to makes the playoffs. It’s shocking to me that Romo has yet to win a playoff game given the talent on Dallas’s roster the past few years. Dallas’s offensive line has provided Romo enough time to find his receivers downfield. Add names such as Jason Witten, Patrick Crayton, Terrell Owens, Roy E. Williams, Marion Barber III, the slew of other running backs in Dallas, and signs must point to Romo being the most overrated quarterback in football. This also brings us to two more fallacies. Commonly Accepted NFL Fallacy #2: The best quarterbacks throw for the most passing yards. Commonly Accepted NFL Fallacy #3: Having success after replacing Drew Bledsoe at quarterback means that the new quarterback is truly special.

 

24. Kyle Orton (Den) I’ve never been a big believer in Kyle Orton. Still, Orton has not done anything to make anyone think he’s been a drop-off from the Jay Cutler era. Just like the rest of his team, Orton is hard to figure out this season. He hasn’t done anything terrible, in fact he’s thrown zero interceptions so far this season. So why is he ranked below Carolina’s Jake Delhomme (seven more interceptions in one fewer game)? I would take Delhomme eight times out of ten to give the same team a better chance to drive downfield and win a big game in the fourth quarter. Orton still doesn’t give me confidence for that, unless Brandon Stokley is waiting past the first line of defense.

23. Kerry Collins (Ten) Tennessee finished last season with the best record in football because Collins made a few key plays at the right times to keep Tennessee ahead. This year, after only four games, Collins has thrown one fewer interception than he did all of last season. He has never had the playmaking ability of Vince Young. If Young can intellectually grasp Tennessee’s offense, there will be no looking back to the Collins era. Right now, Collins is by far the worst starting quarterback in the AFC South, the division with the best overall quarterback play.

22. Trent Edwards (Buf) Trent Edwards has made a bad situation look pretty good so far this season. As Buffalo upgraded their offense by bringing in volatile Wide Receiver Terrell Owens, they lost key pieces of their offensive line and fired their offensive coordinator just before the season started. Edwards looked best in the first two weeks but is a big game away from returning to the media’s good graces. For right now, all he needs is time.

21. Kurt Warner (Ari) Kurt Warner is a mediocre quarterback who can stay in the pocket with time and consistently hit elite wide receivers when he’s given time. I’m not ready to give up on Matt Leinart, but he needs to develop poise before he can have success, even in Arizona. I don’t see Warner sticking around for too much longer in the NFL. After years of leading great offenses full of great talent, Warner is getting old. He’ll still put up the numbers, but he can’t make throws with the same accuracy as he once could. Commonly Accepted NFL Fallacy #4: A great fantasy quarterback is a great NFL quarterback. Any reasonable NFL expert would agree with me, so I won’t bother to defend it very well.

 

20. Jason Campbell (Was) I really think Washington turned a corner in their comeback win over Tampa Bay last weekend. We have yet to see Washington’s offense execute at full capacity. Look for Jim Zorn to start the Carolina game with deep passes to Moss and Cooley before even involving Portis. Campbell’s numbers have not been awful, but he has been ineffective. Look for this to change over the next few weeks.

19. Mark Sanchez (NYJ) Sanchez has done much more than I’d expected from him so far this season but has a long way to go. I’ve been impressed by Sanchez’s willingness to tuck it and run but unimpressed with his turnovers. Sanchez has thrown five interceptions while only throwing four touchdowns. He’s also fumbled five times already. Luckily, he has some room for error, because the Jets’ defense is really good. I’m excited to see Sanchez connect with big-play receiver Braylon Edwards but even more excited to see what he can produce with Jerricho Cotchery now that Edwards will draw attention.

18. Shaun Hill (SFO) Posting an 8-4 record in twelve games starting for the San Francisco 49ers is no mean feat. Hill has thrown five touchdowns and only one interception so far this season, posting a QB rating of at least 85 every week. The addition of Michael Crabtree should increase both Hill’s touchdowns and interceptions. I like Hill’s chances this year to lead a game-winning drive in crunch time, so by my definition, he is a good quarterback.

17. Matt Hasselbeck (Sea) Hasselbeck’s injury problems have reduced his effectiveness from the days of Koren Robinson and Darrell Jackson. The Seahawks have never been close to as good as they were before losing guard Steve Hutchinson. Hasselbeck is still a good quarterback- good enough for Seattle to beat San Francisco when the 49ers come to Qwest field in December, if he’s healthy.

 

16. Jake Delhomme (Car) Delhomme is the best quarterback in NFL history to put up such horrendous numbers. Poor route running and dropped passes have plagued the Panthers this season. A healthy Jonathan Stewart should take some pressure off Delhomme. I’m convinced Delhomme is still very capable of running the two-minute drill and hope that he doesn’t change his playing style after suffering the bad breaks of the first few weeks. Let’s see what changes after the bye. Do not give up on Jake Delhomme.

15. Ben Roethlisberger (Pit) Roethlisberger is one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the NFL. Roethlisberger has put up impressive numbers this season, but I don’t think he makes Pittsburgh any better than backup Charlie Batch. He’s made mistakes this season that make him look very green.  Pittsburgh should be playing better. They’ve got a terrific running game and should be more effective on offense. I fault Roethlisberger for being sacked for 84 yards already this season, the third most in the league. That number is not a reflection on the Steelers’ pass protection but rather Roethlisberger’s tendency to hold onto the football for too long. Granted, Roethlisberger has more championships in his first five years in the NFL than most quarterbacks on this list, but Pittsburgh could do better- which reminds me. Commonly Accepted NFL Fallacy #5: Even though championship rings are obviously not the best way to judge the “who is the best punter” discussion, championships do measure how good a quarterback is. Your quarterback can’t be truly terrible, but two minute drill efficiency is a much better indicator.

14. Donovan McNabb (Phi) Durability questions aside, McNabb is more inconsistent than almost any other quarterback of his experience. Few other quarterbacks have the ability to shuffle the same person between the “over-the-hill” discussion and the “often overlooked as a Top 5 QB” discussion like McNabb. He’s not the same quarterback that he was when the Eagles drafted him over Ricky Williams but his best moments are on NFL Films documentaries of Wild Card Weekend or on the Campbell’s chunky soup commercials we all know and love.

13. Joe Flacco (Bal) Thrust into a situation last year in which he only needed to make a couple throws downfield and consistently produce positive plays, Flacco helped carry the Ravens to the AFC Championship. This year, I believe he takes the next step and wins some games for his team in crunch time. A great postseason from Flacco should but Baltimore in Miami come February.

 

12. Philip Rivers (SD) Rivers is a great competitor who is great for the San Diego Chargers. Unfortunately, Rivers is crippled by the burden that is horrendous head coach Norv Turner. San Diego is going to coast through their next three games in the division, before running into some challenges against the NFC East and in Denver. San Diego is destined for the #4 seed again.

11. Matt Ryan (Atl) Matt Ryan is very good and getting even better. His play has made up for Turner’s decline in production (as I predicted). Ryan makes very smart plays for a second year quarterback and makes his team better than almost any other quarterback in football makes their team. Matt Ryan is the real deal. He uses his head, his arm, and his legs to make an otherwise mediocre roster a competitive team every week.

10.  Jay Cutler (Chi) The arrival of Jay Cutler in Chicago has worked wonders for the Bears’ offense. The Bears completion percentage is up about 5% and passing offense has picked up 24 more yards per game so far. Cutler is averaging two passing touchdowns per game, something that hasn’t been done in Chicago in a long time. His arm makes Chicago a serious threat in the NFC.

9. Matt Schaub (Hou) Matt Schaub has made the most this season despite getting practically nothing from the running game. Andre Johnson has been a top 10 receiver but needs to be more productive for the Texans to stay in the hunt for the playoffs. He’s the seventh rated passer in football so far this season. Houston’s defense needs to come up with some key third down stops for the Texans to become a playoff contender.

 

8. David Garrard (Jax) Garrard has done a lot this year with few good receivers. Torry Holt’s play has declined much more than I could’ve imagined. Still, Garrard finally produced against Tennessee last week for the Jaguars. He dropped the ball (literally) to squander what should have been an easy win on Week 2 against Arizona, but makes plays every week for a bad offense. He has thrown for five touchdowns with only one interception and has picked up over one hundred yards and six points on the ground for the Jacksonville Jaguars. That says a lot.

7. Tom Brady (NE) I know what so many of you are thinking. How could anybody in their right mind put six quarterbacks ahead of Tom Brady? This year Brady has not been very good. The Patriots have succeeded best by running the football. Brady has thrown twenty-one more passes than Kerry Collins, who has the second most attempts. Only seven other quarterbacks are within 21 passes of Collins, but Brady remains fourth in passing yardage. For more details on Tom Brady, click here.  He’s not as good as he once was.

6. Eli Manning (NYG) Eli Manning has done everything he’s needed to keep the Giants undefeated. He engineered a confidence building game winning drive against Dallas on the night that the Cowboys looked as good as they have all season (though quite frankly, it never should have come to that given the breaks the Giants were getting all game). I feel like Eli still doesn’t have the presence behind center that the greats all have- I feel that he doesn’t even try to fool the defense on running plays. Even with all of his success, Giants Stadium still boos him if the play clock gets too low, but Eli has arrived as a great clutch quarterback in New York. Against Oakland, only his consecutive starts streak will be tested.

5. Carson Palmer (Cin) Palmer is a fluke play from having his Cincinnati Bengals at 4-0, thanks to his clutch play in the fourth quarter. He’s done this, despite having lost TJ Houshmandzadeh, his most reliable target. Chad Ochocinco would never have had the nerve to change his name had he not accomplished so much due to Palmer’s accuracy. Given the lack of pass protection, a running game, and depth at wide receiver, both Palmer and coach Marvin Lewis deserve a lot of credit for the success in Cincinnati.

 

4. Aaron Rodgers (GB) Rodgers has picked up right where he left off after the 2008 season. His play has compensated for the decline of Ryan Grant. I don’t blame Rodgers for being sacked more than any other quarterback. He and Shaun Hill are the only two quarterbacks in the top ten for yards lost on sacks and who have not thrown multiple interceptions. That says something. Here’s an interesting statistic. Ten teams sacked for most yards: 38 games, 43 interceptions. Ten Teams sacked for least yards: 38 games, 25 interceptions. Hmmm.

3. Brett Favre (Min) Oh, if Favre had only retired and let Eli Manning finally become a Top 5 QB! Favre is just as good as he’s ever been healthy, and his reduced role on the Vikings will keep him in good shape until the playoffs. He’s made nice throws and made Sidney Rice and Bernard Berrian look professional. Percy Harvin was a great addition to the Minnesota offense. I’m interested to watch Favre if Hutchinson can’t hold up in Minnesota. Through four weeks, he’s made me eat my words this summer when I said, “Brett Favre is like the Sopranos. Plenty of good stuff left, but the legacy is best when it just ends”

2. Drew Brees (NO) Coming off an MVP caliber season, Drew Brees leads the best offense in the league. He can make throws all over the field and consistently throws multiple touchdowns. The emergence of a running game and a defense in New Orleans is very dangerous. I’d trust Brees with the football on any down, especially when he’s surrounded by the high-octane New Orleans offense.

1. Peyton Manning (Ind) And it isn’t even close right now. Peyton Manning has played better football this year than Tom Brady has ever played, including the record-setting 2007 season. No quarterback has thrown for more yards or more touchdowns than Peyton. Manning’s put up these numbers despite losing his coach, Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez (so far), and being surrounded by the worst offensive line he’s had in years. It has been Manning and only Manning that has kept the Colts competitive let alone undefeated. He’s shown no signs of slowing down. Tennessee will not let Manning get through Sunday Night unscathed but he is always capable of making the impossible throw. There is no better quarterback  right now than Peyton Manning.