Last Week 9-6-1 (0-3)* 2 Losses by half a point. One bold pick failing to cover a 4.5 point spread after being up by 18. GRRRR
Season 116-106 (29-29)
Included is my record picking each team against the spread with my record picking them as a bold pick in parentheses.
DOLPHINS -3 over Texans
Mia 6-8 (3-3) Hou 7-6 (1-1)
Both teams have outside shots to make the playoffs heading into this showdown. Miami has two overwhelming advantages going into this game: the home crowd and the most lopsided coaching matchup we may have seen all season. While I know Houston will have success throwing on the Dolphins, I can’t imagine they sustain it for four quarters. Ricky Williams needs to hold onto the ball and Chad Henne needs to avoid costly mistakes such as last week’s overtime interception. If Houston takes an early lead, Miami still should be able to squeeze the game out late. If Miami takes an early lead, Houston’s playoff chances are done.
Ravens +3 over STEELERS Bal 10-4 (4-3) Pit 9-5 (1-0)
I’d like to give a well-done to the odds-makers who set last week’s Steelers’ line against Green Bay at -1.5. Hats off to both teams for tremendous performances in that game last week, most particularly to Ben Roethlisberger. This week, Pittsburgh again faces elimination against a Ravens team who’d love to avenge last years Conference Championship loss by knocking off the defending champs. Baltimore is coming off of a dismantling of Chicago and has their momentum back. Baltimore needs to center their offensive game plan around Ray Rice to give Pittsburgh a season record of 1-5 in the AFC North. The Ravens are the better team, especially with Pittsburgh’s injuries on defense. Play Baltimore.
BENGALS -13.5 over Chiefs Cin 10-4 (4-4) KC 9-5 (1-2)
The Bengals can’t look past Kansas City, a golden opportunity for them to clinch the AFC North. They played San Diego with a lot of emotion but couldn’t quite end San Diego’s winning streak. The Chiefs put up some points against Cleveland but face a much stiffer Bengals defense this week. On the other hand, Kansas City’s defense has really been terrible. Cedric Benson should wear down Kansas City and give Larry Johnson a chance for revenge against his former team. Cincinnati should have a lot of success on both sides of the ball; this game shouldn’t be close.
SAINTS -14 over Buccaneers NO 8-6 (0-2) TB 8-6 (0-2)
Congratulations to Tampa Bay for closing the Saints’ lead over them from 12 down to only 11 games last week. New Orleans will make it back this week. Tampa Bay’s pass defense is terrible; Brees should have a field day. Interesting note- New Orleans is 13-0 with Jeremy Shockey on the field and 0-1 without him. It’s hard to emphasize just how big of a role Shockey has played in the Saints’ success.
Jaguars +8.5 over PATRIOTS Jax 9-5 (2-0) NE 10-3 (5-0)
Congratulations to the Jaguars (at least on offense) for a well-fought game last week against Peyton Manning’s Colts. Unfortunately well-fought games aren’t quite enough to get them into the playoffs. This week, Jacksonville should have similar success on offense against a mediocre Patriots defense and should be able to muster some stops on defense after failing to get it done last week. The Patriots aren’t looking to get just a win against Jacksonville; they want a blowout with an exclamation point to give them momentum for the playoffs. I think Jacksonville gives them a lot of problems in this game and pulls of an upset to stay alive in the playoffs.
Raiders +3 over BROWNS Oak 10-4 (1-1) Cle 7-7 (0-1)
Expect Charlie Frye to succeed in making Cleveland pay for letting him go. The Browns should get another 100 yard day from Jerome Harrison, but if they’re defense is anywhere near as terrible as they were in Kansas City, then Oakland should win this game easily and secure another year for Tom Cable, especially if he can keep his hands to himself. Derek Anderson and Mohammad Massaquoi vs. Nnamdi Asomugha is a huge mismatch. The amazing thing about this game is oddsmakers are saying that they expect the Cleveland Browns to be on a three game winning streak after this game. I’m slightly less optimistic.
Seahawks +14 over PACKERS Sea 9-5 (2-0) GB 6-8 (1-2)
Oh goody, we’ve got ourselves a battle of the only two teams Tampa Bay has beaten this season. Seattle has played some really awful football over the past few weeks while the Packers can put themselves in position to clinch a playoff berth with a win. I think Seattle comes into this game with the same mentality that Green Bay had after their loss to the Bucs. I don’t think the Seahawks have quite given up on Jim Mora (even though he does not deserve to come back next season). Seattle has been slapped in the face by former coach Mike Holmgren and will come out flying against the Packers. I don’t have quite the chutzpah to pick Seattle to beat the Packers, but I doubt they’re willing to pack up yet. These guys are playing for their jobs. In a game where they can’t be eliminated for playoff contention, I think Green Bay disappoints, especially after last week’s heartbreaker.
GIANTS -7 over Panthers NYG 6-8 (1-3) Car 5-9 (2-2)
I find it very appropriate that John Fox squares off against his old team in the Giants’ last game at Giants’ Stadium. Big Blue put together a very impressive win against Washington last week- so impressive that even I was complimenting Kevin Gilbride for his play-calling. The Giants finally utilized Jacobs and Bradshaw correctly and involved their tight ends early and often. Defensively, the Giants finally succeeded in getting pressure from the middle which set everything else in the right direction. Especially if DeAngelo Williams can’t suit up, the Giants should get the double whammy in this game both by keeping their playoff hopes alive and by throwing some fire under the hot seat on which John Fox finds himself. The battle of Steve Smiths should be interesting, but there is a big difference between a Moore and a Manning. This is a huge game for the NFC playoff picture, and I will be one among a loud many at the stadium.
Bills +9 over FALCONS Buf 4-9 (1-2) Atl 7-7 (1-1)
Give the Falcons their credit for a tremendous defensive performance in a win against the Jets, even after being eliminated from playoff contention. The Falcons were one Braylon Edwards drop from shutting out a team that still can make the playoffs. Buffalo’s defense will be tested especially after losing Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate and team interception leader Paul Byrd. If the Bills can get any push out of their offensive line, I don’t think Atlanta will be able to dominate. The Falcons are the better team but probably won’t cover. This is probably my least confident pick this week (which of course probably means that it’s the only advice you should take).
Lions +13 over 49ERS Det 5-8 (0-2) SF 9-4 (4-2)
Drew Stanton gives Detroit its best chance to move the ball against a still underrated 49ers team. I still think San Francisco has a good team but am now ready to label Alex Smith a bust. I bet the Niners will rely too heavily on Frank Gore’s legs and let Detroit hang around. This won’t be a very good game.
CARDINALS -14.5 over Rams Ari 7-7 (5-3) Stl 8-6 (2-3)
The Rams are the worst team in football. Ndamakong Suh will start to turn their franchise around, but he isn’t there yet. Arizona will put up points in bursts and cover this one easily.
Jets +6 over COLTS NYJ 6-8 (1-0) Ind 4-10 (2-3)
If anyone can stop Peyton Manning (and I clearly believe someone can), it should be the top ranked defense in football. Manning has shown that he can thread tighter coverage than anyone in the league but has yet to face Darrelle Revis. The Jets need to upgrade their effort from last week on offense to give themselves a chance to stay alive in the hunt for the playoffs. Rex Ryan will have them motivated for this game. This will be a game of field possession. Take the points.
EAGLES -7 over Broncos Phi 7-7 (0-4) Den 3-11 (1-3)
Brian Dawkins returns to Philadelphia and should receive a standing ovation followed by a pounding from his former team. The best of the NFC East is too explosive for the Broncos. I don’t remember ever seeing two teams that started 5-0 (Denver and the New York Giants) so close to missing the playoffs. Unfortunately for Giants fans, this game will likely remove Philadelphia’s incentive to play hard against Dallas next week, especially after
REDSKINS +7 over Cowboys Was 4-10 (1-3) Dal 9-5 (5-1)
This is the classic buy low sell high game. Prior to last week’s collapse against the Giants, the Redskins have played hard long after being eliminated from playoff contention. This week, they face their archrivals who happen to be notoriously bad in December. Dallas couldn’t score until the very end the last time they faced Washington because they couldn’t get success running it up the middle. Unless Washington removes Albert Haynesworth from the field, Dallas will have their hands full as they try to hold onto their lead over the Giants. The Redskins would love a win against an NFC East team, and they should get one in their last chance. Don’t expect Washington to embarrass themselves two weeks in a row on prime time.
Vikings -7 over BEARS Min 5-9 (2-2) Chi 8-6 (1-0)
Having lost two of three, the Vikings face a Bears team that is playing for the already slim chances Coach Lovie Smith has of returning next year. Considering they’ve already given up on Jay Cutler, I’d be shocked if the Bears can put anything together. Cutler needs to be benched; he’s been terrible this season. Meanwhile, I think the Vikings should be able to rebound with a big game from Peterson and Brett Favre even more fluently than the media can create a story around Favre and his problems. The Vikings had their wake-up call last week and won’t let their chances at a bye slip away just yet.
Playoff Seedings
AFC
Ind
SD
Cin
Mia
Bal
Jax
NFC
NO
Phi
Min
Ari
GB
NYG
Saturday, December 26, 2009
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Thursday Night Quickpick
Chargers +3 over TITANS
SD 8-6 (2-1) Ten 7-7 (1-2)
What a backdoor cover by Miami last week. In any case, I think the Chargers are the better team and the Titans are already close to being eliminated, purely based on tiebreakers. San Diego is playing terrific football; they should be able to slow down Chris Johnson. Vegas lists this teams as even. San Diego is better.
SD 8-6 (2-1) Ten 7-7 (1-2)
What a backdoor cover by Miami last week. In any case, I think the Chargers are the better team and the Titans are already close to being eliminated, purely based on tiebreakers. San Diego is playing terrific football; they should be able to slow down Chris Johnson. Vegas lists this teams as even. San Diego is better.
Monday, December 21, 2009
The Playoff Chances of the Giants
Big, Blue, and Breathing
While the Cowboys’ upset over the Saints pointed to what many Giants fans believed was the final nail in a well-earned coffin, a win over Washington will put the Giants in a better position to make the playoffs than a quick glance at the standings would lead one to think. Even though Philadelphia held serve with a win against the 49ers to eliminate the Giants from contention for the NFC East, the Giants remain poised to snag a Wild Card spot as the 6th or possibly even the 5th seed.
It remains impossible for the Giants to catch up to New Orleans or Minnesota; even if the Giants do win out, they’ll only reach ten wins. Arizona also has clinched a higher seed than the Giants, having clinched the weak NFC West. This leaves the Giants jostling for playoff position with Dallas and Green Bay.
The playoffs are seeded from the division winner with the best record down to the division winner with the fourth best record. Since the addition of the Houston Texans to the NFL, that leaves room for only two Wild Card teams. In the NFC, those teams will be some combination of two out of the following four teams: Philadelphia, Dallas, Green Bay, and New York- with either Dallas or Philadelphia winning the NFC East. Going into the Monday Night showdown between New York and Washington, the Eagles are 10-4 with an upcoming home game against Denver and season finale in Dallas, the Packers are 9-5 with an upcoming home game against Seattle and season finale in Arizona, the Cowboys are 9-5 with two intradivision games remaining- on the road against a Redskins team on short rest and then finally hosting Philadelphia, and the Giants are 7-6 with tonight’s game in Washington, the last game they’ll play at Giants’ Stadium the week after (barring extraordinary circumstances), and then a road game in Minnesota. There’s a lot of football left.
NFL Wild Card Tiebreaking Procedures are sorted as follows:
1. Head to Head Record
2. Record in games played within Conference
3. Record in Common Games
Several other qualifiers are listed to break ties after the three steps listed above, but none will factor into the NFC this year. In head to head games so far this season, Dallas has beaten Philadelphia but lost once to Green Bay and twice to New York. This means that while the Cowboys control their own destiny within the division, they will lose any Wild Card tiebreaker and are one loss away from needing help to qualify for the playoffs.
Next, we look at Green Bay in comparison to New York. The teams have not played and both finished 2-2 against the AFC which means should the teams have an identical record in their 12 games within the NFC, it comes down to a record in games against opponents they have both faced: Minnesota, Arizona, Dallas, and Tampa Bay. The Giants have yet to face Minnesota but have two wins over Dallas and one over Tampa Bay. The Packers have yet to face Arizona but have a win over Dallas and three losses against these opponents; Brett Favre and the Vikings beat Green Bay twice while Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers won their only game before yesterday against Green Bay. This means that with a 3-1 record against common opponents, the Giants have clinched tiebreakers over the Packers who are 1-3 against the same teams.
For simplicity’s sake, I’m assuming that no remaining game will end in a tie. If you’re genuinely wondering what will happen if at least two of the eight games I listed above do end in ties, just leave a comment below and I’ll humor you. That said, here is every potential win/loss outcome of the above games and the consequences for the Giants in the playoff picture. All games unless otherwise specified are interchangeable.
I. New York wins anything fewer than two of three remaining games
A. New York is eliminated
II. New York wins 2 games and loses 1
A. New York qualifies for the 5th seed IF
1. Dallas and Green Bay both lose remaining games to finish in a three way tie at 9-7 (Green Bay would get the 6th seed)
B. New York qualifies for the 6th seed IF
1. Dallas loses both remaining games AND Green Bay does not OR
2. Green Bay loses both remaining games AND Dallas does not
C. New York is eliminated IF neither Dallas nor Green Bay loses both remaining games
III. New York wins all 3 remaining games
A. New York qualifies for 5th seed IF
1. Green Bay loses at least one game AND
a) Dallas loses to Philadelphia OR
b) Dallas loses to Washington AND Philadelphia beats Denver
B. New York qualifies for 6th seed IF
1. Green Bay loses either game AND
a) Dallas does not lose either game OR
b) Philadelphia loses to Denver and Dallas
2. Dallas loses either game AND Green Bay does not
C. New York is eliminated IF Dallas and Green Bay win both remaining games
Notes: Should New York win out, Philadelphia lose out, and Washington upset Dallas: the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles will all finish 10-6 atop the NFC East. Dallas’s 3-3 record eliminates them from NFC East contention which gives Philadelphia the division based on a head to head sweep of New York (New York and Philadelphia are 4-2). Otherwise, a two team tie between Dallas and Philadelphia will give Dallas the division based on a better head to head record (if Philadelphia beats Dallas to have an even head to head record, Dallas will have no chance at tying Philadelphia). Finally, the Week 16 showdown between Carolina and New York will be the last game the Giants play at Giants stadium unless Big Blue secures the 5th seed and no home team wins in any of the four games before the Conference Championship game. There is an outside chance that New York will host the NFC Championship game.
Finally, returning to my subjective standpoint- Green Bay is a near lock to beat Seattle next week which puts the Giants in a tricky situation. Assuming Arizona can rest their starters and guarantee they play Green Bay (probably the weakest of the teams still in Wild Card contention) in a rematch with real consequences the next week. By the Cardinals/Packers kickoff (4:15 Eastern), the playoff picture will look very clear.
There’s a lot of good football left. Go Giants!
While the Cowboys’ upset over the Saints pointed to what many Giants fans believed was the final nail in a well-earned coffin, a win over Washington will put the Giants in a better position to make the playoffs than a quick glance at the standings would lead one to think. Even though Philadelphia held serve with a win against the 49ers to eliminate the Giants from contention for the NFC East, the Giants remain poised to snag a Wild Card spot as the 6th or possibly even the 5th seed.
It remains impossible for the Giants to catch up to New Orleans or Minnesota; even if the Giants do win out, they’ll only reach ten wins. Arizona also has clinched a higher seed than the Giants, having clinched the weak NFC West. This leaves the Giants jostling for playoff position with Dallas and Green Bay.
The playoffs are seeded from the division winner with the best record down to the division winner with the fourth best record. Since the addition of the Houston Texans to the NFL, that leaves room for only two Wild Card teams. In the NFC, those teams will be some combination of two out of the following four teams: Philadelphia, Dallas, Green Bay, and New York- with either Dallas or Philadelphia winning the NFC East. Going into the Monday Night showdown between New York and Washington, the Eagles are 10-4 with an upcoming home game against Denver and season finale in Dallas, the Packers are 9-5 with an upcoming home game against Seattle and season finale in Arizona, the Cowboys are 9-5 with two intradivision games remaining- on the road against a Redskins team on short rest and then finally hosting Philadelphia, and the Giants are 7-6 with tonight’s game in Washington, the last game they’ll play at Giants’ Stadium the week after (barring extraordinary circumstances), and then a road game in Minnesota. There’s a lot of football left.
NFL Wild Card Tiebreaking Procedures are sorted as follows:
1. Head to Head Record
2. Record in games played within Conference
3. Record in Common Games
Several other qualifiers are listed to break ties after the three steps listed above, but none will factor into the NFC this year. In head to head games so far this season, Dallas has beaten Philadelphia but lost once to Green Bay and twice to New York. This means that while the Cowboys control their own destiny within the division, they will lose any Wild Card tiebreaker and are one loss away from needing help to qualify for the playoffs.
Next, we look at Green Bay in comparison to New York. The teams have not played and both finished 2-2 against the AFC which means should the teams have an identical record in their 12 games within the NFC, it comes down to a record in games against opponents they have both faced: Minnesota, Arizona, Dallas, and Tampa Bay. The Giants have yet to face Minnesota but have two wins over Dallas and one over Tampa Bay. The Packers have yet to face Arizona but have a win over Dallas and three losses against these opponents; Brett Favre and the Vikings beat Green Bay twice while Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers won their only game before yesterday against Green Bay. This means that with a 3-1 record against common opponents, the Giants have clinched tiebreakers over the Packers who are 1-3 against the same teams.
For simplicity’s sake, I’m assuming that no remaining game will end in a tie. If you’re genuinely wondering what will happen if at least two of the eight games I listed above do end in ties, just leave a comment below and I’ll humor you. That said, here is every potential win/loss outcome of the above games and the consequences for the Giants in the playoff picture. All games unless otherwise specified are interchangeable.
I. New York wins anything fewer than two of three remaining games
A. New York is eliminated
II. New York wins 2 games and loses 1
A. New York qualifies for the 5th seed IF
1. Dallas and Green Bay both lose remaining games to finish in a three way tie at 9-7 (Green Bay would get the 6th seed)
B. New York qualifies for the 6th seed IF
1. Dallas loses both remaining games AND Green Bay does not OR
2. Green Bay loses both remaining games AND Dallas does not
C. New York is eliminated IF neither Dallas nor Green Bay loses both remaining games
III. New York wins all 3 remaining games
A. New York qualifies for 5th seed IF
1. Green Bay loses at least one game AND
a) Dallas loses to Philadelphia OR
b) Dallas loses to Washington AND Philadelphia beats Denver
B. New York qualifies for 6th seed IF
1. Green Bay loses either game AND
a) Dallas does not lose either game OR
b) Philadelphia loses to Denver and Dallas
2. Dallas loses either game AND Green Bay does not
C. New York is eliminated IF Dallas and Green Bay win both remaining games
Notes: Should New York win out, Philadelphia lose out, and Washington upset Dallas: the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles will all finish 10-6 atop the NFC East. Dallas’s 3-3 record eliminates them from NFC East contention which gives Philadelphia the division based on a head to head sweep of New York (New York and Philadelphia are 4-2). Otherwise, a two team tie between Dallas and Philadelphia will give Dallas the division based on a better head to head record (if Philadelphia beats Dallas to have an even head to head record, Dallas will have no chance at tying Philadelphia). Finally, the Week 16 showdown between Carolina and New York will be the last game the Giants play at Giants stadium unless Big Blue secures the 5th seed and no home team wins in any of the four games before the Conference Championship game. There is an outside chance that New York will host the NFC Championship game.
Finally, returning to my subjective standpoint- Green Bay is a near lock to beat Seattle next week which puts the Giants in a tricky situation. Assuming Arizona can rest their starters and guarantee they play Green Bay (probably the weakest of the teams still in Wild Card contention) in a rematch with real consequences the next week. By the Cardinals/Packers kickoff (4:15 Eastern), the playoff picture will look very clear.
There’s a lot of good football left. Go Giants!
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Picks and Playoff Projections:
CHIEFS -2 over Browns
KC 9-4 (1-1) Cle 7-6 (0-0)
The Chiefs are too good in late season games at Arrowhead. I think Todd Haley is a much better coach in-the-moment than Eric Mangini. The Browns lost a lot of push in their run defense with Shaun Rogers’s injury. I feel that the Chiefs will show flashes of the brilliance that awaits them down the road this week. Play Kansas City with any spread lower than 4-4.5.
RAVENS -10.5 over Bears
Chi 7-6 (1-0) Bal 9-4 (4-3)
I have trouble laying over ten points in this game, partially because I think Chicago will score early. That said, Baltimore ran the ball extremely well against Detroit and likely has figured out their recipe for success. Ray Rice should wear the Bears out and put Baltimore in position to pile on points late in the game. The Ravens are in prime position to put together a run to make the playoffs and make a lot of noise in a weak AFC field come January.
BILLS +7 over Patriots
Buf 4-9 (1-2) NE 10-3 (5-0)
New England is 1-5 against the spread since their Week 7 throttling of Tampa Bay in England earlier this year. Given that Miami faces a tough test this week in stopping Chris Johnson and the new-look Tennessee Titans, New England knows what’s at stake in a divisional game they should win. The Bills matched up very well against New England the last time these teams squared off, Week 1 at Gillette. The Bills have made progress since then while the Patriots have regressed. The Patriots will show up ready to make a statement but will struggle to respond if and when Buffalo catches some breaks. Lee Evans should break out for a huge game in this one.
LIONS +14 over Cardinals
Det 4-8 (0-2) Ari 6-7 (5-3)
I’d like to get a show of hands from everyone who still has any doubt as to the validity of the Madden Curse. Polamalu, Fitzgerald, Favre (and Green Bay last year even in his absence), Vince Young… YOU CAN’T MAKE THIS STUFF UP. I’m taking the points in this game- because I still don’t see Arizona as a 2 touchdown favorite, against anybody. Cards should win by 3-7, courtesy of a garbage time score.
Falcons +7 over JETS
Atl 6-7 (1-1) NYJ 5-8 (1-0)
Four weeks ago, Rex Ryan and his tear-stained speeches were providing me excuse after excuse to make fun of the Jets- as they insisted they’d been disrespected. Four weeks ago, the Falcons were gearing up for an eventual overtime thriller with huge Wild Card implications in the NFC, especially considering tiebreakers. Only a couple QB injuries later, the Jets have a legitimate shot at the final AFC Wild Card spot, and possibly even the AFC East while the Falcons are all but eliminated and doomed for yet another failure to follow up an over .500 season with similar success. Clemens gives the Jets their best chance to win; Ryan gives the Falcons their only chance to win. Neither of these teams have sustained their early season success- just how well these teams play down the stretch is largely a testament to their coaches. Falcons should rush for 200 yards in a win.
49ers +8 over EAGLES
SF 9-3 (4-1) Phi 7-6 (0-3)
In one of the best games we’ve been treated to so far this season, the Eagles scraped a win over the Giants with lots of help. Their defense put forth a really lackluster performance, bailed out by some key turnovers and the disappearing act Bill Sheridan pulled on what was once arguably the most feared defense in the league. San Francisco’s secondary is better than New York’s. Philadelphia should have a lot of trouble moving the ball on the 49ers while the 49ers are coming off a great offensive performance against the Cardinals. Biases aside, this is my upset pick of the week. San Francisco is going to be a contender next season, and they should be a fun team to watch play spoiler as this season concludes.
RAMS +14 over Texans
Hou 6-6 (1-1) Stl 7-6 (2-3)
Yes the Texans have more talent, especially on offense, than at least half of the AFC postseason field, but their season is essentially over, their coach is essentially fired, and they are coming into a game against a St. Louis team determined to give their fans one home win this season. 14 points? I have to take the Rams in this one.
TITANS -4.5 over Dolphins
Ten 7-6 (1-1) Mia 6-7 (3-2)
With some help from the right places, both of these teams still have a shot to qualify for the playoffs. This pick comes down to Tennessee’s ability to run the football and my doubts as to whether Miami will be able to come up with an answer for Chris Johnson. Without taking anything away from Chad Henne and the success that Tony Sparano has had with a really mediocre roster (especially after Ronnie Brown went down), Tennessee has too much firepower for Miami to keep pace. The Titans should win this one handily.
Raiders +14 over BRONCOS
Oak 9-4 (1-1) Den 2-11 (1-3)
A change of home field and twelve points of movement in the point spread aren’t the only difference between this game and the beat down Denver handed the Raiders in Week 3. Charlie Frye is a gritty quarterback who never got a fair shot in Cleveland or Seattle. I think he’ll fill in well for the injured Bruce Gradkowski. Despite my apprehension of picking anybody who needs someone to “fill in well for the injured Bruce Gradkowski,” I need to remember this is 2009. Kyle Orton is leading his team to the playoffs, Ryan Fitzpatrick is the savior in Buffalo, and Charlie Frye is going to cover the spread against Denver.
Bengals +7 over CHARGERS
Cin 9-4 (4-4) SD 7-6 (2-1)
Oh, how I wish this game was played six weeks ago- when the Bengals were the flavor of the week and the Chargers were the team that all the experts overestimated. Cincy is losing believers, but will be playing with emotion after losing Chris Henry this past week. Marvin Lewis is the right coach for a situation like this and should have the Bengals ready to put San Diego to the test.
STEELERS -1.5 over Packers
Pit 9-4 (1-0) GB 6-7 (1-2)
The Packers are taking a five game winning streak to Pittsburgh and trying to see if both their streak and the Steelers’ five game losing streak can survive the weekend. Even in their slump, Pittsburgh has played reasonably well at home, losing only by 6 to the Bengals and by 3 to an uncharacteristically crisp Raiders team. Losing to the Raiders, Chiefs, and Browns has sort of removed the bullseye from the Steelers- which should play to their advantage. While Mike Tomlin is not in jeopardy of losing his job, he could absolutely use a win to quiet down the doubters. The Packers are overrated, especially in this winning streak and will not do 9 or more points better than the Vikings did in Heinz Field.
Buccaneers +7 over SEAHAWKS
TB 7-6 (0-2) Sea 8-5 (2-0)
No, I swear I don’t have an aversion to taking 7 point favorites. The Seahawks are a terrible road team and a much better home team. But, Josh Freeman should have a good game and give the fans a W while giving Steve Spagnuolo a chance to get Ndamukong Suh and build around him. Bucs win this in an “upset”.
Vikings -9 over PANTHERS
Car 5-8 (3-1) Min 5-8 (2-2)
I took the Panthers when I penciled this pick in but am coming up empty with reasons as to why they should win. Their rushing game should be slowed to a halt by Minnesota’s “Williams Wall” and their passing game shouldn’t do all that much better. As a Giants fan, my desire to see Panthers Coach John Fox fired and thus eligible to come back to the Giants as a defensive coordinator (or maybe Head Coach, but I’m not going to get too hopeful) outweighs my concerns that the Vikings will play hard Week 17 to have a shot at home field. Let’s see how the Panthers can stop the Vikings’ offense.
Giants -2.5 over REDSKINS
NYG 5-8 (1-3) Was 3-10 (1-3)
The key to this game will be how well an injured Rich Seubert can hold off Albert Haynesworth. Seubert has the heart of a lion. I can’t doubt him now. Now or Never G-Men, Now or Never.
Projections for Playoff Seedings as of 12:00 am 12/20/09:
AFC
1. Colts
2. Bengals
3. Chargers
4. Dolphins
5. Ravens
6. Broncos
Ravens over Colts
Chargers over Bengals
NFC
1. Saints
2. Vikings
3. Eagles
4. Cardinals
5. Packers
6. Giants
Giants over Saints (Yes I know. Yes I know.)*
Vikings over Packers
SB: Vikings 27 Chargers 13
*- I think the Giants have a realistic chance of winning out and hoping that either Washington or Philly (or both) thwarts Dallas. Is it really that impossible for the Giants to do that and then beat a Philadelphia team they outplayed last week?**
**- To any person superstitious and downright nutty enough to be compared to myself, I assure you that I knocked on wood after writing all of that.
KC 9-4 (1-1) Cle 7-6 (0-0)
The Chiefs are too good in late season games at Arrowhead. I think Todd Haley is a much better coach in-the-moment than Eric Mangini. The Browns lost a lot of push in their run defense with Shaun Rogers’s injury. I feel that the Chiefs will show flashes of the brilliance that awaits them down the road this week. Play Kansas City with any spread lower than 4-4.5.
RAVENS -10.5 over Bears
Chi 7-6 (1-0) Bal 9-4 (4-3)
I have trouble laying over ten points in this game, partially because I think Chicago will score early. That said, Baltimore ran the ball extremely well against Detroit and likely has figured out their recipe for success. Ray Rice should wear the Bears out and put Baltimore in position to pile on points late in the game. The Ravens are in prime position to put together a run to make the playoffs and make a lot of noise in a weak AFC field come January.
BILLS +7 over Patriots
Buf 4-9 (1-2) NE 10-3 (5-0)
New England is 1-5 against the spread since their Week 7 throttling of Tampa Bay in England earlier this year. Given that Miami faces a tough test this week in stopping Chris Johnson and the new-look Tennessee Titans, New England knows what’s at stake in a divisional game they should win. The Bills matched up very well against New England the last time these teams squared off, Week 1 at Gillette. The Bills have made progress since then while the Patriots have regressed. The Patriots will show up ready to make a statement but will struggle to respond if and when Buffalo catches some breaks. Lee Evans should break out for a huge game in this one.
LIONS +14 over Cardinals
Det 4-8 (0-2) Ari 6-7 (5-3)
I’d like to get a show of hands from everyone who still has any doubt as to the validity of the Madden Curse. Polamalu, Fitzgerald, Favre (and Green Bay last year even in his absence), Vince Young… YOU CAN’T MAKE THIS STUFF UP. I’m taking the points in this game- because I still don’t see Arizona as a 2 touchdown favorite, against anybody. Cards should win by 3-7, courtesy of a garbage time score.
Falcons +7 over JETS
Atl 6-7 (1-1) NYJ 5-8 (1-0)
Four weeks ago, Rex Ryan and his tear-stained speeches were providing me excuse after excuse to make fun of the Jets- as they insisted they’d been disrespected. Four weeks ago, the Falcons were gearing up for an eventual overtime thriller with huge Wild Card implications in the NFC, especially considering tiebreakers. Only a couple QB injuries later, the Jets have a legitimate shot at the final AFC Wild Card spot, and possibly even the AFC East while the Falcons are all but eliminated and doomed for yet another failure to follow up an over .500 season with similar success. Clemens gives the Jets their best chance to win; Ryan gives the Falcons their only chance to win. Neither of these teams have sustained their early season success- just how well these teams play down the stretch is largely a testament to their coaches. Falcons should rush for 200 yards in a win.
49ers +8 over EAGLES
SF 9-3 (4-1) Phi 7-6 (0-3)
In one of the best games we’ve been treated to so far this season, the Eagles scraped a win over the Giants with lots of help. Their defense put forth a really lackluster performance, bailed out by some key turnovers and the disappearing act Bill Sheridan pulled on what was once arguably the most feared defense in the league. San Francisco’s secondary is better than New York’s. Philadelphia should have a lot of trouble moving the ball on the 49ers while the 49ers are coming off a great offensive performance against the Cardinals. Biases aside, this is my upset pick of the week. San Francisco is going to be a contender next season, and they should be a fun team to watch play spoiler as this season concludes.
RAMS +14 over Texans
Hou 6-6 (1-1) Stl 7-6 (2-3)
Yes the Texans have more talent, especially on offense, than at least half of the AFC postseason field, but their season is essentially over, their coach is essentially fired, and they are coming into a game against a St. Louis team determined to give their fans one home win this season. 14 points? I have to take the Rams in this one.
TITANS -4.5 over Dolphins
Ten 7-6 (1-1) Mia 6-7 (3-2)
With some help from the right places, both of these teams still have a shot to qualify for the playoffs. This pick comes down to Tennessee’s ability to run the football and my doubts as to whether Miami will be able to come up with an answer for Chris Johnson. Without taking anything away from Chad Henne and the success that Tony Sparano has had with a really mediocre roster (especially after Ronnie Brown went down), Tennessee has too much firepower for Miami to keep pace. The Titans should win this one handily.
Raiders +14 over BRONCOS
Oak 9-4 (1-1) Den 2-11 (1-3)
A change of home field and twelve points of movement in the point spread aren’t the only difference between this game and the beat down Denver handed the Raiders in Week 3. Charlie Frye is a gritty quarterback who never got a fair shot in Cleveland or Seattle. I think he’ll fill in well for the injured Bruce Gradkowski. Despite my apprehension of picking anybody who needs someone to “fill in well for the injured Bruce Gradkowski,” I need to remember this is 2009. Kyle Orton is leading his team to the playoffs, Ryan Fitzpatrick is the savior in Buffalo, and Charlie Frye is going to cover the spread against Denver.
Bengals +7 over CHARGERS
Cin 9-4 (4-4) SD 7-6 (2-1)
Oh, how I wish this game was played six weeks ago- when the Bengals were the flavor of the week and the Chargers were the team that all the experts overestimated. Cincy is losing believers, but will be playing with emotion after losing Chris Henry this past week. Marvin Lewis is the right coach for a situation like this and should have the Bengals ready to put San Diego to the test.
STEELERS -1.5 over Packers
Pit 9-4 (1-0) GB 6-7 (1-2)
The Packers are taking a five game winning streak to Pittsburgh and trying to see if both their streak and the Steelers’ five game losing streak can survive the weekend. Even in their slump, Pittsburgh has played reasonably well at home, losing only by 6 to the Bengals and by 3 to an uncharacteristically crisp Raiders team. Losing to the Raiders, Chiefs, and Browns has sort of removed the bullseye from the Steelers- which should play to their advantage. While Mike Tomlin is not in jeopardy of losing his job, he could absolutely use a win to quiet down the doubters. The Packers are overrated, especially in this winning streak and will not do 9 or more points better than the Vikings did in Heinz Field.
Buccaneers +7 over SEAHAWKS
TB 7-6 (0-2) Sea 8-5 (2-0)
No, I swear I don’t have an aversion to taking 7 point favorites. The Seahawks are a terrible road team and a much better home team. But, Josh Freeman should have a good game and give the fans a W while giving Steve Spagnuolo a chance to get Ndamukong Suh and build around him. Bucs win this in an “upset”.
Vikings -9 over PANTHERS
Car 5-8 (3-1) Min 5-8 (2-2)
I took the Panthers when I penciled this pick in but am coming up empty with reasons as to why they should win. Their rushing game should be slowed to a halt by Minnesota’s “Williams Wall” and their passing game shouldn’t do all that much better. As a Giants fan, my desire to see Panthers Coach John Fox fired and thus eligible to come back to the Giants as a defensive coordinator (or maybe Head Coach, but I’m not going to get too hopeful) outweighs my concerns that the Vikings will play hard Week 17 to have a shot at home field. Let’s see how the Panthers can stop the Vikings’ offense.
Giants -2.5 over REDSKINS
NYG 5-8 (1-3) Was 3-10 (1-3)
The key to this game will be how well an injured Rich Seubert can hold off Albert Haynesworth. Seubert has the heart of a lion. I can’t doubt him now. Now or Never G-Men, Now or Never.
Projections for Playoff Seedings as of 12:00 am 12/20/09:
AFC
1. Colts
2. Bengals
3. Chargers
4. Dolphins
5. Ravens
6. Broncos
Ravens over Colts
Chargers over Bengals
NFC
1. Saints
2. Vikings
3. Eagles
4. Cardinals
5. Packers
6. Giants
Giants over Saints (Yes I know. Yes I know.)*
Vikings over Packers
SB: Vikings 27 Chargers 13
*- I think the Giants have a realistic chance of winning out and hoping that either Washington or Philly (or both) thwarts Dallas. Is it really that impossible for the Giants to do that and then beat a Philadelphia team they outplayed last week?**
**- To any person superstitious and downright nutty enough to be compared to myself, I assure you that I knocked on wood after writing all of that.
Saturday Night Pick
Season to date stats listed as Total Record with bold picks in parentheses.
This Week: 0-1
Season: 106-101 (29-26)
Cowboys +8 over SAINTS
Dal 8-5 (5-1) NO 7-6 (0-2)
The Saints will face a real challenge tonight in stopping the Cowboys’ rushing attack. The Saints are going to be able to score points through the air in this game. The key for Dallas will be not putting their fate in Tony Romo’s hands too soon. I suspect the Saints will not be able to stop a balanced Dallas rushing attack but have seen Jason Garrett get away from the run too soon before. Barring coaching blunders, Dallas should be able to keep this close and maybe end the Saints’ run at perfection.
6:04 pm update: Jeremy Shockey as a scratch is a huge loss for the Saints. This affords flexibility for Dallas to double cover Colston or bring an extra pass-rusher. Dallas will have every chance to win this one.
This Week: 0-1
Season: 106-101 (29-26)
Cowboys +8 over SAINTS
Dal 8-5 (5-1) NO 7-6 (0-2)
The Saints will face a real challenge tonight in stopping the Cowboys’ rushing attack. The Saints are going to be able to score points through the air in this game. The key for Dallas will be not putting their fate in Tony Romo’s hands too soon. I suspect the Saints will not be able to stop a balanced Dallas rushing attack but have seen Jason Garrett get away from the run too soon before. Barring coaching blunders, Dallas should be able to keep this close and maybe end the Saints’ run at perfection.
6:04 pm update: Jeremy Shockey as a scratch is a huge loss for the Saints. This affords flexibility for Dallas to double cover Colston or bring an extra pass-rusher. Dallas will have every chance to win this one.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
The Somewhat Overdue, Long Awaited, Alisberg Colts-Hating Quick Pick
Last Week: 7-9 Overall 1-3 Bold
Season: 106-100 Overall 29-26 Bold
Colts Games*: 4-9 Overall 2-3 Bold
Jaguars Games: 9-4 Overall 2-0 Bold
*- Stats list my Ravens Colts (bold) pick as incorrect despite me winning the best I'd placed on Baltimore after the line moved to 3... Sigh
Thursday Night Pick:
JAGUARS +3.5 over Colts
This pick comes down to a few factors.
A) I will not let myself pick the Colts on the night of their first loss of the season... Do I see it coming tonight? Well, I honestly see the Colts pulling out the 3 point squeaker. They're still not nearly as good as their record indicates (while admittedly not nearly as bad as my preseason forecast indicated). There's a reason that Vegas is giving such a small spread in a game against arguably the worst team in the AFC South that has achieved .500 results against a very soft schedule. Still, Jacksonville does have playmakers.
B) Nobody's played really well on Thursday Night in a while... Nobody. Pittsburgh didn't play well against Cleveland (who remains incapable of playing well ever). The Giants laid an egg against the Broncos (who accumulated almost as much yardage through false starts as the Giants allowed DeSean Jackson to gain in their subsequent game everytime he touched the ball). Before that, the Bills, Jets and 49ers looked bad. And to say the Bears were anything but terrible would be just wrong. What's my point? In sloppy slugfests- take the crowd and the points.
C) The Colts will have to compensate for their holes in their secondary by giving up some push at the line of scrimmage. In their Week 1 14-12 victory over Jacksonville, David Garrard couldn't quite turn the game around because he had been under pressure. Since then, Jacksonville has learned both pass protection and that getting Maurice Jones-Drew the ball really can pay off. The Jaguars should be able to put up points against a spotty Colts' D. Manning will have to have another gem to match them.
D) This game will come down to the fingertips of Colts' Wide Receivers and Dallas Clark. If Clark can continue to be as consistent catching the ball as he's been in recent games and Manning can keep himself in a rhythm with confidence that receivers won't be dropping easy passes, the Colts will be a very difficult offense to stop. This being a Thursday Night game, I hesitate to say the Colts achieve this... but you know I'm a doubter.
E) Because I'm an arrogant prick who wants nothing more than to look at this post Friday Morning, smile, and say "I told you so"
The Pick: Jags 27 Colts 20
Season: 106-100 Overall 29-26 Bold
Colts Games*: 4-9 Overall 2-3 Bold
Jaguars Games: 9-4 Overall 2-0 Bold
*- Stats list my Ravens Colts (bold) pick as incorrect despite me winning the best I'd placed on Baltimore after the line moved to 3... Sigh
Thursday Night Pick:
JAGUARS +3.5 over Colts
This pick comes down to a few factors.
A) I will not let myself pick the Colts on the night of their first loss of the season... Do I see it coming tonight? Well, I honestly see the Colts pulling out the 3 point squeaker. They're still not nearly as good as their record indicates (while admittedly not nearly as bad as my preseason forecast indicated). There's a reason that Vegas is giving such a small spread in a game against arguably the worst team in the AFC South that has achieved .500 results against a very soft schedule. Still, Jacksonville does have playmakers.
B) Nobody's played really well on Thursday Night in a while... Nobody. Pittsburgh didn't play well against Cleveland (who remains incapable of playing well ever). The Giants laid an egg against the Broncos (who accumulated almost as much yardage through false starts as the Giants allowed DeSean Jackson to gain in their subsequent game everytime he touched the ball). Before that, the Bills, Jets and 49ers looked bad. And to say the Bears were anything but terrible would be just wrong. What's my point? In sloppy slugfests- take the crowd and the points.
C) The Colts will have to compensate for their holes in their secondary by giving up some push at the line of scrimmage. In their Week 1 14-12 victory over Jacksonville, David Garrard couldn't quite turn the game around because he had been under pressure. Since then, Jacksonville has learned both pass protection and that getting Maurice Jones-Drew the ball really can pay off. The Jaguars should be able to put up points against a spotty Colts' D. Manning will have to have another gem to match them.
D) This game will come down to the fingertips of Colts' Wide Receivers and Dallas Clark. If Clark can continue to be as consistent catching the ball as he's been in recent games and Manning can keep himself in a rhythm with confidence that receivers won't be dropping easy passes, the Colts will be a very difficult offense to stop. This being a Thursday Night game, I hesitate to say the Colts achieve this... but you know I'm a doubter.
E) Because I'm an arrogant prick who wants nothing more than to look at this post Friday Morning, smile, and say "I told you so"
The Pick: Jags 27 Colts 20
Saturday, December 12, 2009
Week 14... it's getting juicy
Thursday Night: 0-1
Last Week: 7-9, 1-3 Bold Picks
Season: 99-92, 27-24 Bold Picks
Broncos +7 over COLTS
Picking this game is like picking which movie I liked better between The Dark Knight and the third Lord of the Rings movie- both quality movies but both tremendously overrated by the general public. This is the first game in a while that I think the Colts’ actually have a decent personnel advantage. So why pick Denver-a team I’ve been doubting all year? Easy.
Josh McDaniels has his players playing harder and smarter for him than any other coach in the league (except maybe Ken Whisenhunt and Tony Sparano). He’s the kind of coach I expect Peyton Manning to be ten years from now. I think McDaniels has a game plan to take advantage of the Colts’ depleted secondary and not let them put together unanswered scores. I never thought I’d say this, but Denver made a great move by firing Mike Shanahan last year and replacing him with McDaniels. The Colts’ have beaten better teams, but this will be a great test for them.
Bengals +7 over VIKINGS
I expect the Bengals to win this one outright. Cincinnati has a knack for playing great games against teams that should beat them. Hopefully this is the game Cincinnati trusts Carson Palmer rather than run at the Williams wall. I think the Bengals can have some success running but need a big game from Carson Palmer. On the other side of the ball, expect Minnesota to go back to an offense heavily focused on the run, even though they will play the stingiest run defense in the league. They demonstrated last week that Brett Favre can’t do it all himself when the defense is playing zone coverage (and shouldn’t have to!). The Bengals should take the crowd out by stopping Minnesota on a couple early possessions and play most of the game with a lead. This is a game where it really sucks to have Brad Childress (evil beard not withstanding) on the sidelines.
Jets -3.5 over BUCCANEERS
I think the Bucs will have a lot of trouble moving the football, especially without a healthy Cadillac Williams. Clemens should be a nice fit for the Jets offense and provide a much-needed spark for Braylon Edwards. A long week won’t hurt either.
CHIEFS +2 over Bills
I don’t think Buffalo can get motivated to play in Kansas City, even after ten days rest. The Chiefs have a very dangerous December crowd.
BEARS +4.5 over Packers
This has all the makings of an upset. A Mike McCarthy coached team coming off of four mediocre wins (the Cowboys and Ravens both played terribly) heading into a stadium where the fans loathe them (almost as much as they loathe their own team). I think Forte breaks out for a huge game this week and a couple of questionable decisions (and nondecisions) by Aaron Rodgers tighten up the Wild Card race in the NFC.
Saints -10 over FALCONS
After the Giants started their downhill spiral by losing to the Saints, I penciled this game as the toughest remaining game New Orleans had left in the regular season. A few crucial injuries later and this has blowout written all over it. While I’ve been reading stuff all week such as, “You don’t make money betting on a 12-0 team playing in their division,” I can tell you one thing with a lot of confidence… you sure as hell don’t win a lot of money by betting on Chris Redman against a 12-0 team.
RAVENS -14 over Lions
I really, really hope that Pittsburgh’s collapse isn’t making Baltimore a little jealous. I tweeted during the Steelers Titans game that opened the season that Ben Roethlisberger was making some really bad throws and that Eli would have been slaughtered by the media if he put on a performance like that (who’d have thought those two teams would be a combined 10-13 since that game (I feel like now is a great time to remind everyone I picked neither Pittsburgh nor Tennessee to make the playoffs in my Season Preview)). In any case, I expect Baltimore to get back to the ground and wear Detroit’s defense down easily.
Panthers +14 over PATRIOTS
Before anyone tells me that this is the classic setup of a Patriots’ throttling of a warm-weather opponent to regain momentum for the season, I’d like to look at Carolina’s performances last year in late-season cold weather games. They beat Green Bay in Lambeau 35-31 and lost a thriller in overtime to the Giants 34-28. John Fox is a cold-weather coach and the Panthers (SHOULD) run a cold-weather offense. The most overlooked aspect of this game is Carolina’s rushing offense against a New England defense that while only allowing 3 rushing touchdowns, ranks in the middle of the pack at best in every other run defense category. Don’t get sucked into taking the Pats in this one.
Dolphins +3 over JAGUARS
Miami is in the thick of the AFC East divisional race and heads to Jacksonville for what is almost a ninth home game for them. This is a really interesting game as it will say a lot about where both teams are right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a blowout either way. I hesitate to pick the Dolphins because I really don’t think they’re that good, but I like them here… just enough.
TEXANS -7 over Seahawks
No, I’m not a believer in Houston anymore (sigh, damn you Gary Kubiak and your Romoesque clutch performances to close out games), but Seattle is truly awful on the road. This game will be the AFC South’s payback for Seattle’s 41-0 shellacking of Jacksonville that seems like such a long time ago.
TITANS -13 over Rams
I gambled last week by taking the Rams to cover against the heavily favored Bears, won, and now have decided not to press my luck by doubling down. I can’t see St. Louis coming up with an answer for Chris Johnson, even though Vince Young will be limited this week. Titans win this one easily.
RAIDERS +1 over Redskins
Without De’Angelo Hall and Albert Haynesworth, I don’t see the Redskins having a lot of success on defense. Considering the Redskins have demonstrated beyond a reasonable doubt that they can lose a game better than probably any other team in football, I like going against the grains this week and picking Oakland to stay hot with a win over Washington.
COWBOYS -3 over Chargers
Dallas played one of its best games of the season last week (yes I know they lost). I think the Cowboys will really be playing with intensity as the media continues to doubt their December football. Jason Garrett is definitely going to switch back to a more run-oriented offense. San Diego should expect to be having to keep pace the whole game. I expect this game to go way over the 48.5 over/under.
GIANTS (NL) over Eagles
I can’t emphasize enough how big this game is for both teams. A win for the Giants keeps Big Blue in control of their own destiny and gives them the momentum to hit the playoffs in stride. A win for Philadelphia gives Philadelphia a strong grip on the NFC East and could very well eliminate one of their toughest potential postseason opponents. Last time these teams met, the Giants were flat-out caught off guard and never regained their composure. This time, they’re coming off the most impressive win of the season and under the impression that nobody, Pro Bowlers included, is completely safe in their job. Hopefully Eli’s dump to Boss last week can inspire Gilbride to actually call for Boss to get involved short when the defense is in a deep zone. If the Giants can hold onto the football by catching easy passes and avoiding costly fumbles, the Giants should win this one no problem. I also think that Aaron Ross playing as a safety can take a potential big play away from DeSean Jackson.
49ERS +3.5 over Cardinals
The Niners pulled off an upset of Arizona the last time these two teams played, and I don’t see any reason for them to do the same thing again. San Francisco is a good team. When they figure out how to run the ball and pass the ball well in the same game, they’ll be dangerous.
Last Week: 7-9, 1-3 Bold Picks
Season: 99-92, 27-24 Bold Picks
Broncos +7 over COLTS
Picking this game is like picking which movie I liked better between The Dark Knight and the third Lord of the Rings movie- both quality movies but both tremendously overrated by the general public. This is the first game in a while that I think the Colts’ actually have a decent personnel advantage. So why pick Denver-a team I’ve been doubting all year? Easy.
Josh McDaniels has his players playing harder and smarter for him than any other coach in the league (except maybe Ken Whisenhunt and Tony Sparano). He’s the kind of coach I expect Peyton Manning to be ten years from now. I think McDaniels has a game plan to take advantage of the Colts’ depleted secondary and not let them put together unanswered scores. I never thought I’d say this, but Denver made a great move by firing Mike Shanahan last year and replacing him with McDaniels. The Colts’ have beaten better teams, but this will be a great test for them.
Bengals +7 over VIKINGS
I expect the Bengals to win this one outright. Cincinnati has a knack for playing great games against teams that should beat them. Hopefully this is the game Cincinnati trusts Carson Palmer rather than run at the Williams wall. I think the Bengals can have some success running but need a big game from Carson Palmer. On the other side of the ball, expect Minnesota to go back to an offense heavily focused on the run, even though they will play the stingiest run defense in the league. They demonstrated last week that Brett Favre can’t do it all himself when the defense is playing zone coverage (and shouldn’t have to!). The Bengals should take the crowd out by stopping Minnesota on a couple early possessions and play most of the game with a lead. This is a game where it really sucks to have Brad Childress (evil beard not withstanding) on the sidelines.
Jets -3.5 over BUCCANEERS
I think the Bucs will have a lot of trouble moving the football, especially without a healthy Cadillac Williams. Clemens should be a nice fit for the Jets offense and provide a much-needed spark for Braylon Edwards. A long week won’t hurt either.
CHIEFS +2 over Bills
I don’t think Buffalo can get motivated to play in Kansas City, even after ten days rest. The Chiefs have a very dangerous December crowd.
BEARS +4.5 over Packers
This has all the makings of an upset. A Mike McCarthy coached team coming off of four mediocre wins (the Cowboys and Ravens both played terribly) heading into a stadium where the fans loathe them (almost as much as they loathe their own team). I think Forte breaks out for a huge game this week and a couple of questionable decisions (and nondecisions) by Aaron Rodgers tighten up the Wild Card race in the NFC.
Saints -10 over FALCONS
After the Giants started their downhill spiral by losing to the Saints, I penciled this game as the toughest remaining game New Orleans had left in the regular season. A few crucial injuries later and this has blowout written all over it. While I’ve been reading stuff all week such as, “You don’t make money betting on a 12-0 team playing in their division,” I can tell you one thing with a lot of confidence… you sure as hell don’t win a lot of money by betting on Chris Redman against a 12-0 team.
RAVENS -14 over Lions
I really, really hope that Pittsburgh’s collapse isn’t making Baltimore a little jealous. I tweeted during the Steelers Titans game that opened the season that Ben Roethlisberger was making some really bad throws and that Eli would have been slaughtered by the media if he put on a performance like that (who’d have thought those two teams would be a combined 10-13 since that game (I feel like now is a great time to remind everyone I picked neither Pittsburgh nor Tennessee to make the playoffs in my Season Preview)). In any case, I expect Baltimore to get back to the ground and wear Detroit’s defense down easily.
Panthers +14 over PATRIOTS
Before anyone tells me that this is the classic setup of a Patriots’ throttling of a warm-weather opponent to regain momentum for the season, I’d like to look at Carolina’s performances last year in late-season cold weather games. They beat Green Bay in Lambeau 35-31 and lost a thriller in overtime to the Giants 34-28. John Fox is a cold-weather coach and the Panthers (SHOULD) run a cold-weather offense. The most overlooked aspect of this game is Carolina’s rushing offense against a New England defense that while only allowing 3 rushing touchdowns, ranks in the middle of the pack at best in every other run defense category. Don’t get sucked into taking the Pats in this one.
Dolphins +3 over JAGUARS
Miami is in the thick of the AFC East divisional race and heads to Jacksonville for what is almost a ninth home game for them. This is a really interesting game as it will say a lot about where both teams are right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a blowout either way. I hesitate to pick the Dolphins because I really don’t think they’re that good, but I like them here… just enough.
TEXANS -7 over Seahawks
No, I’m not a believer in Houston anymore (sigh, damn you Gary Kubiak and your Romoesque clutch performances to close out games), but Seattle is truly awful on the road. This game will be the AFC South’s payback for Seattle’s 41-0 shellacking of Jacksonville that seems like such a long time ago.
TITANS -13 over Rams
I gambled last week by taking the Rams to cover against the heavily favored Bears, won, and now have decided not to press my luck by doubling down. I can’t see St. Louis coming up with an answer for Chris Johnson, even though Vince Young will be limited this week. Titans win this one easily.
RAIDERS +1 over Redskins
Without De’Angelo Hall and Albert Haynesworth, I don’t see the Redskins having a lot of success on defense. Considering the Redskins have demonstrated beyond a reasonable doubt that they can lose a game better than probably any other team in football, I like going against the grains this week and picking Oakland to stay hot with a win over Washington.
COWBOYS -3 over Chargers
Dallas played one of its best games of the season last week (yes I know they lost). I think the Cowboys will really be playing with intensity as the media continues to doubt their December football. Jason Garrett is definitely going to switch back to a more run-oriented offense. San Diego should expect to be having to keep pace the whole game. I expect this game to go way over the 48.5 over/under.
GIANTS (NL) over Eagles
I can’t emphasize enough how big this game is for both teams. A win for the Giants keeps Big Blue in control of their own destiny and gives them the momentum to hit the playoffs in stride. A win for Philadelphia gives Philadelphia a strong grip on the NFC East and could very well eliminate one of their toughest potential postseason opponents. Last time these teams met, the Giants were flat-out caught off guard and never regained their composure. This time, they’re coming off the most impressive win of the season and under the impression that nobody, Pro Bowlers included, is completely safe in their job. Hopefully Eli’s dump to Boss last week can inspire Gilbride to actually call for Boss to get involved short when the defense is in a deep zone. If the Giants can hold onto the football by catching easy passes and avoiding costly fumbles, the Giants should win this one no problem. I also think that Aaron Ross playing as a safety can take a potential big play away from DeSean Jackson.
49ERS +3.5 over Cardinals
The Niners pulled off an upset of Arizona the last time these two teams played, and I don’t see any reason for them to do the same thing again. San Francisco is a good team. When they figure out how to run the ball and pass the ball well in the same game, they’ll be dangerous.
Thursday, December 10, 2009
Thursday Night Quickpick
Last Week: 1-3 Bold Picks 7-9 Overall
Season: 27-24 Bold Picks 99-91 Overall
Thursday Pick:
Steelers -10 over BROWNS
In awful weather, without Shaun Rogers and Jamal Lewis, and with a motivated Steelers team that is too well-coached to end the season this early, the Steelers will blow out the Browns. Cleveland on a short week sounds a lot shakier than Pittsburgh on a short week. Lay the points, take the Steelers, let's see if I can crack 100 wins before Sunday.
Season: 27-24 Bold Picks 99-91 Overall
Thursday Pick:
Steelers -10 over BROWNS
In awful weather, without Shaun Rogers and Jamal Lewis, and with a motivated Steelers team that is too well-coached to end the season this early, the Steelers will blow out the Browns. Cleveland on a short week sounds a lot shakier than Pittsburgh on a short week. Lay the points, take the Steelers, let's see if I can crack 100 wins before Sunday.
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
What I Learned this Weekend
(and what I've finally figured out after 13 weeks)
1. Head Coach Job Security Report for 2010:
FIRED: G. Kubiak (Hou), E. Mangini (Cle), J. Zorn (Was)
DOUBTFUL: W. Phillips (Dal), L. Smith (Chi), J. Fox (Car)
QUESTIONABLE: P. Fewell (Buf), J. Mora (Sea), R. Morris (TB)
PROBABLE: T. Coughlin (NYG), J. Schwartz (Det), M. Singletary (SFO)
In my (somewhat) humble opinion, the teams that absolutely must find a new coach in order to reach their potential are: Houston, Cleveland, Dallas, Buffalo, Seattle, Tampa Bay, NYG, San Francisco, Green Bay, and Minnesota (congratulations to Norv Turner for finally taking San Diego off this list). Despite being 10-2, Minnesota had a very poor offensive gameplan against Arizona. Football fans all season have been debating as to whether Brett Favre deserves credit for his career-best efficiency this season or whether he has succeeded mostly as a product of the dangerous rushing attack. In the 24 offensive plays Minnesota ran between Arizona taking a 21-10 lead and my assertion that the game had gotten out of Minnesota's reach (when Arizona took over up 27-10 with less than ten minutes to go... Minnesota would next take over on offense down 30-10 with just over 4:00 remaining in the game), they ran Adrian Peterson three times. I had been yelling that Arizona had been dropping back into zone coverage, a perfect opportunity for taking the game over. Unless Childress has been hiding that Peterson is injured (not impossible), he unnecessarily forced Favre into a situation where he had to make low percentage throws and took the game out of Minnesota's control. Minnesota has too much talent to lose a game that badly.
2. The Much Discussed Romo December Collapse
has not happened yet. Romo and the Cowboys played one of their best games of the year on Sunday against the Giants... but the Giants played better. When teams are executing up to their potential, the NFC East is capable of dominating any other division with the possible exception of the AFC South (I'd still give the NFC East the edge). The division is loaded with the most talent while cursed with the worst coaches. Both teams came out with a solid gameplan in a playoff atmosphere. Defensively, the Cowboys were more aggressive with their secondary while the Giants used the "bend but don't break" approach. Dallas had some lucky breaks on tipped balls to take a 10-0 lead, but the Giants' intensity gave me confidence that Big Blue could make a comeback. My favorite play of the game was watching a pressured Eli Manning dump the ball to Kevin Boss for a 16 yard gain. I've been waiting for the Giants to run plays like this all season and wrote (in bold print) "why they’ve yet to try a dumpout screen to Boss is beyond me." The lack of the Giants' production on offense still scares me, but I fully expect the Giants to make the playoffs, especially if Minnesota returns the Giants' favor to them last year by resting their starters in Week 17. Expect Big Blue to make a lot of noise down the stretch. Great performance on Sunday- especially to Romo, Witten, and the Giants' coaching staff.
3. The NFC West: Cardinals Rule
Since winning their division for the first time since Gerald Ford was in the White House, Arizona has consistently been playing up to the potential of their offense. I owe Coach Ken Whisenhunt a lot of credit. He's done a phenomenal job since taking over in Arizona and deserves serious consideration for Coach of the Year. Conversely, I think San Francisco has a more complete team than Arizona, especially on defense. While I think Mike Singletary is a superb motivator for the defense especially, I think his inexperience running the game has hurt San Francisco- specifically in games against the AFC South. I think Singletary is best as a top defensive coordinator
4. South divisions set
In my preseason projections, I predicted the closest division race would be in the AFC North, while the easiest division title would be the AFC West. After 13 weeks, the Chargers do have a lead in the AFC West but are only ahead of the surprising Denver Broncos by one game, while the Colts and Saints have both secured their division titles already while the Vikings, Bengals, and Cardinals all have comfortable leads in theirs.
5. Bye-Bye Bye Teams
Last year the Titans, Steelers, Giants, and Panthers earned first round byes in the playoffs. If the playoffs started today, none of these teams would even qualify. My money says that of the four, only the Giants will make the playoffs this year, but I’m sure you could’ve guessed that.
6. I did to Jay Cutler what the media did to Michael Jackson.
When the media mentioned Michael Jackson the day before his death, and the many days before that, the words “crazy,” “tragic,” and “unfortunate downfall” were used much more commonly than “genius” or “King of Pop.” A headline grabbing death later? Anybody who mentioned Michael spoke in awe of how revolutionary he was for the music industry, and rightfully so. Now, I’ve always felt that the early-career struggles of Vince Young and Matt Leinart made their fellow 2006 1st round QB overrated by the media. After all, Cutler still has yet to lead an NFL team to a winning record in a season. When Chicago traded for Cutler, the new environment somehow gave me confidence that he’d succeed in ways he never did with Denver. In my defense, I had no idea the Bears’ running game would evaporate. While we’re on the subject, I must also admit that I Allen Iversoned Cedric Benson (wrote him off after he struggled in a system that didn’t fit his strengths) and Jason Kidded Peyton Manning (decided that even though he made everyone around him appear much better with his play, new personnel would mean he would regress).
7. By the Skins of their Teeth!
The Saints’ come-from-behind win over a backwards Redskins team that had been playing them all game was frankly one of the weirdest experiences watching a game I’d had all year. I had been in contact with my partner in crime as a preteen sports fanatic, Carter, and from the flashes of the game I’d seen agreed with his assessment that Washington had been playing a significantly better game of football than New Orleans. Yet, as FOX’s NFL crew tweeted that they felt the Saints were not done, I had to agree that you couldn’t count the game as over yet. After all, this game was a matchup between a team of winners and a team of losers, and their destinies were fulfilled. Shaun Suisham missed a career summarizing 23 yard field goal to put the Saints in position to take the game back. Sure enough, the Saints came storming back to win this one in overtime.
8. And on the Subject of Carter…
I’d like to wish the aforementioned Carter a happy 21st birthday (yesterday). To celebrate, I’m including a list of quarterbacks who have started for Carter’s favorite NFL team (Cleveland) and coaches who’ve coached for his second favorite NFL team (St. Louis) in the games they’ve played in the span of their last 21 victories…
Trent Dilfer, Charlie Frye, Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn…
Mike Martz, Joe Vitt, Scott Linehan, Jim Haslett, Steve Spagnuolo…
Carter, this takes us back to the days before Apple even announced the iPhone… oh and in case you’re wondering, my list looks like: Eli Manning, Tom Coughlin
9. Award Update:
My awards for Most Outstanding Player and Coach of the Year look like:
MVP COY
5. Philip Rivers 5. Tony Sparano
4. Drew Brees 4. Marvin Lewis
3. Darrelle Revis 3. Ken Whisenhunt
2. Chris Johnson 2. Josh McDaniels
1. Peyton Manning 1. Sean Payton
HM: Brett Favre HM: Jim Caldwell
10. Bailing on Baltimore
Despite being a mediocre 6-6, I’m still not ready to give up on Baltimore. They’re finally hitting a soft stretch of the schedule which makes them a legitimate threat to finish at 10-6. Admittedly, I overrated Joe Flacco. I’ve seen Flacco barely miss receivers on third down conversions all year. His performance Sunday Night against Green Bay was terrible. Baltimore would be better served with a scrambling quarterback who can make plays with his feet. They’ve completely given up on Le’Ron McClain, a fantasy football gold mine from just one year ago. Baltimore needs to right the ship quickly to make a playoff run of any consequence.
Wish me luck on Finals… Don’t expect too much new stuff this week… lots more coming next week
1. Head Coach Job Security Report for 2010:
FIRED: G. Kubiak (Hou), E. Mangini (Cle), J. Zorn (Was)
DOUBTFUL: W. Phillips (Dal), L. Smith (Chi), J. Fox (Car)
QUESTIONABLE: P. Fewell (Buf), J. Mora (Sea), R. Morris (TB)
PROBABLE: T. Coughlin (NYG), J. Schwartz (Det), M. Singletary (SFO)
In my (somewhat) humble opinion, the teams that absolutely must find a new coach in order to reach their potential are: Houston, Cleveland, Dallas, Buffalo, Seattle, Tampa Bay, NYG, San Francisco, Green Bay, and Minnesota (congratulations to Norv Turner for finally taking San Diego off this list). Despite being 10-2, Minnesota had a very poor offensive gameplan against Arizona. Football fans all season have been debating as to whether Brett Favre deserves credit for his career-best efficiency this season or whether he has succeeded mostly as a product of the dangerous rushing attack. In the 24 offensive plays Minnesota ran between Arizona taking a 21-10 lead and my assertion that the game had gotten out of Minnesota's reach (when Arizona took over up 27-10 with less than ten minutes to go... Minnesota would next take over on offense down 30-10 with just over 4:00 remaining in the game), they ran Adrian Peterson three times. I had been yelling that Arizona had been dropping back into zone coverage, a perfect opportunity for taking the game over. Unless Childress has been hiding that Peterson is injured (not impossible), he unnecessarily forced Favre into a situation where he had to make low percentage throws and took the game out of Minnesota's control. Minnesota has too much talent to lose a game that badly.
2. The Much Discussed Romo December Collapse
has not happened yet. Romo and the Cowboys played one of their best games of the year on Sunday against the Giants... but the Giants played better. When teams are executing up to their potential, the NFC East is capable of dominating any other division with the possible exception of the AFC South (I'd still give the NFC East the edge). The division is loaded with the most talent while cursed with the worst coaches. Both teams came out with a solid gameplan in a playoff atmosphere. Defensively, the Cowboys were more aggressive with their secondary while the Giants used the "bend but don't break" approach. Dallas had some lucky breaks on tipped balls to take a 10-0 lead, but the Giants' intensity gave me confidence that Big Blue could make a comeback. My favorite play of the game was watching a pressured Eli Manning dump the ball to Kevin Boss for a 16 yard gain. I've been waiting for the Giants to run plays like this all season and wrote (in bold print) "why they’ve yet to try a dumpout screen to Boss is beyond me." The lack of the Giants' production on offense still scares me, but I fully expect the Giants to make the playoffs, especially if Minnesota returns the Giants' favor to them last year by resting their starters in Week 17. Expect Big Blue to make a lot of noise down the stretch. Great performance on Sunday- especially to Romo, Witten, and the Giants' coaching staff.
3. The NFC West: Cardinals Rule
Since winning their division for the first time since Gerald Ford was in the White House, Arizona has consistently been playing up to the potential of their offense. I owe Coach Ken Whisenhunt a lot of credit. He's done a phenomenal job since taking over in Arizona and deserves serious consideration for Coach of the Year. Conversely, I think San Francisco has a more complete team than Arizona, especially on defense. While I think Mike Singletary is a superb motivator for the defense especially, I think his inexperience running the game has hurt San Francisco- specifically in games against the AFC South. I think Singletary is best as a top defensive coordinator
4. South divisions set
In my preseason projections, I predicted the closest division race would be in the AFC North, while the easiest division title would be the AFC West. After 13 weeks, the Chargers do have a lead in the AFC West but are only ahead of the surprising Denver Broncos by one game, while the Colts and Saints have both secured their division titles already while the Vikings, Bengals, and Cardinals all have comfortable leads in theirs.
5. Bye-Bye Bye Teams
Last year the Titans, Steelers, Giants, and Panthers earned first round byes in the playoffs. If the playoffs started today, none of these teams would even qualify. My money says that of the four, only the Giants will make the playoffs this year, but I’m sure you could’ve guessed that.
6. I did to Jay Cutler what the media did to Michael Jackson.
When the media mentioned Michael Jackson the day before his death, and the many days before that, the words “crazy,” “tragic,” and “unfortunate downfall” were used much more commonly than “genius” or “King of Pop.” A headline grabbing death later? Anybody who mentioned Michael spoke in awe of how revolutionary he was for the music industry, and rightfully so. Now, I’ve always felt that the early-career struggles of Vince Young and Matt Leinart made their fellow 2006 1st round QB overrated by the media. After all, Cutler still has yet to lead an NFL team to a winning record in a season. When Chicago traded for Cutler, the new environment somehow gave me confidence that he’d succeed in ways he never did with Denver. In my defense, I had no idea the Bears’ running game would evaporate. While we’re on the subject, I must also admit that I Allen Iversoned Cedric Benson (wrote him off after he struggled in a system that didn’t fit his strengths) and Jason Kidded Peyton Manning (decided that even though he made everyone around him appear much better with his play, new personnel would mean he would regress).
7. By the Skins of their Teeth!
The Saints’ come-from-behind win over a backwards Redskins team that had been playing them all game was frankly one of the weirdest experiences watching a game I’d had all year. I had been in contact with my partner in crime as a preteen sports fanatic, Carter, and from the flashes of the game I’d seen agreed with his assessment that Washington had been playing a significantly better game of football than New Orleans. Yet, as FOX’s NFL crew tweeted that they felt the Saints were not done, I had to agree that you couldn’t count the game as over yet. After all, this game was a matchup between a team of winners and a team of losers, and their destinies were fulfilled. Shaun Suisham missed a career summarizing 23 yard field goal to put the Saints in position to take the game back. Sure enough, the Saints came storming back to win this one in overtime.
8. And on the Subject of Carter…
I’d like to wish the aforementioned Carter a happy 21st birthday (yesterday). To celebrate, I’m including a list of quarterbacks who have started for Carter’s favorite NFL team (Cleveland) and coaches who’ve coached for his second favorite NFL team (St. Louis) in the games they’ve played in the span of their last 21 victories…
Trent Dilfer, Charlie Frye, Derek Anderson, Brady Quinn…
Mike Martz, Joe Vitt, Scott Linehan, Jim Haslett, Steve Spagnuolo…
Carter, this takes us back to the days before Apple even announced the iPhone… oh and in case you’re wondering, my list looks like: Eli Manning, Tom Coughlin
9. Award Update:
My awards for Most Outstanding Player and Coach of the Year look like:
MVP COY
5. Philip Rivers 5. Tony Sparano
4. Drew Brees 4. Marvin Lewis
3. Darrelle Revis 3. Ken Whisenhunt
2. Chris Johnson 2. Josh McDaniels
1. Peyton Manning 1. Sean Payton
HM: Brett Favre HM: Jim Caldwell
10. Bailing on Baltimore
Despite being a mediocre 6-6, I’m still not ready to give up on Baltimore. They’re finally hitting a soft stretch of the schedule which makes them a legitimate threat to finish at 10-6. Admittedly, I overrated Joe Flacco. I’ve seen Flacco barely miss receivers on third down conversions all year. His performance Sunday Night against Green Bay was terrible. Baltimore would be better served with a scrambling quarterback who can make plays with his feet. They’ve completely given up on Le’Ron McClain, a fantasy football gold mine from just one year ago. Baltimore needs to right the ship quickly to make a playoff run of any consequence.
Wish me luck on Finals… Don’t expect too much new stuff this week… lots more coming next week
Saturday, December 5, 2009
Week 13 Preview... for Stephanie
I’d like to dedicate this entry to my friend Stephanie Davis who was tragically killed this weekend on her way to a party. Stephanie was one of the most genuinely nice and happy people I’d ever have the pleasure of getting to know. She deserved a much better fate. My thoughts and prayers are with her family.
0-1 Thursday Night
8-8 Last Week 92-83 Season
3-1 Last Week 26-21 Bold
CHIEFS +6 over Broncos
I can’t pick Denver to beat anyone on the road by over a touchdown. If Kansas City can get a couple quick scores early, they should keep this close (at least for the whole game.
14.5 + Raiders over STEELERS
Oakland’s defense is one of the most underrated units in the league. If they can come out ready to play, then this game should be A LOT closer against a struggling Steelers team.
Texans -1 over JAGUARS
What a difference a few weeks makes. Gary Kubiak has gone from a coach of the year candidate in my opinion to someone who deserves to be fired. I think the Texans offense is too much for Jacksonville to handle but must admit that I’m picking this one with my head against my guts which are leaning with Jacksonville.
Titans +6.5 over COLTS
It’s about time for a confession. I’ve underrated Indianapolis all season- mainly because I feel like they have been maximizing their potential as a football team and playing up to it while better teams have allowed stupid mistakes to beat them. The Colts have demonstrated remarkable resilience and have had some truly impressive comebacks so far this season. They are not, nor will they at any point this season be a dominating team that can blow teams out by many touchdowns. Still, Indianapolis plays 60 minutes of good football every game, which so far has been enough for a perfect regular season.
DOLPHINS +6 over Patriots
I think New England won’t be able to handle the coaching, running game, or crowd in Miami. Chad Henne deserves a lot more credit for his play this season, and a high-profile win over New England to tighten up the AFC East race should help out. Also, don’t look now, but there seems to be a growing population of the sports community that agreed what I said before the last game between these teams when I introduced my “Belichick lost his touch” theory. The fact is that Belichick used to win games by playing to the opposing team’s weaknesses but now tries to win on his terms. It’s not working.
Eagles -6 over FALCONS
Losing Matt Ryan is a very steep challenge for Mike Mularkey this weekend. I don’t think the Falcons will be able to keep up with Philly. The Falcons’ playoffs hopes will take a serious downturn with a loss this weekend… and Michael Vick deserves nothing less than a Standing Ovation.
BENGALS -13 over Lions
Even on a short week, I don’t think they can make this line high enough. Detroit’s defense is not going to slow down a Bengals team that can do wonders for their chances at a bye week with a win. I just can’t see Detroit keeping this close.
PANTHERS -5 over Buccaneers
I think the Panthers are the better team, as long as their playcalling doesn’t cripple them. They’ve needed to replace Jake Delhomme all season. Failing to do so has probably (hopefully) cost John Fox his job and in turn makes him one of the favorites to take over the Giants’ defensive coordinator position assuming Bill Sheridan is fired.
REDSKINS +10.5 over Saints
This line has shot in the Saints favor after their dismantling of the Patriots on Monday night. They face a Redskins team that has had fourth quarter leads in back to back games on the road against divisional rivals who happen to be playoff contenders. This could be a shocking upset, but it should be a close win for the Saints.
Rams +10 over BEARS
This was actually a bold pick for Chicago when I was initially going over the games, but the more I think about this matchup, the more I like St. Louis’s chance to double their win total on the season. The Bears could come out flying, but this is a team that has lost six of seven and hasn’t beaten a Top 31 team in over 2 months… I’ll take the points, thank you.
Chargers -14 over BROWNS
As much as I hate picking road teams to win by at least two touchdowns, I’ll make an exception in this one. How many points will the Chargers score? 40?
49ers +1 over SEAHAWKS
If San Francisco can take control of this game early, (barring an Arizona upset of the Vikings) the 49ers can become the hands down favorite to take back the NFC West, restore order to the Madden and Super Bowl loser curses, and make my preseason predictions one heck of a lot more appealing for me to brag.
GIANTS +3.5 over Cowboys
Now that the Giants are finally getting a spread that is anywhere from 4-7 points high, I feel they are due to dominate the Cowboys. Remember, this is the same team that started 5-0 and has since outplayed Arizona, San Diego, and Atlanta. They didn’t show up on Thursday, but they are not a team that can be taken lightly. I love the D-Line shakeup by replacing Fred Robbins and Osi Umenyiora with Chris Canty (a former Cowboy) and Matthias Kiwanuka and really hope that Osi takes opportunity of more rest for his knee to be as effective as he once was on the pass rush. Luckily the Giants enough depth to make this switch.
Vikings -4 over CARDINALS
I think the Vikings are so much better than Arizona. Favre has been playing at a truly astonishing level all season. I don’t think Arizona is good enough to keep up with them. I think Arizona may make two or three of the longest plays from scrimmage but expect Minnesota to make about 10 of the 15 longest. I expect consistent success on offense from the Vikings.
Ravens +3.5 over PACKERS
In a game that would do wonders for my defense of Baltimore and the Giants’ playoff hopes. I’m amazed by how well an easy stretch of the schedule can turn the non-believers into believers about a football team. It worked for Dallas and now it is working for Green Bay. I think Baltimore will take the crowd out early and win this by about 10.
Thursday, December 3, 2009
Tiger Thoughts and Thursday Night Quick Pick
Guys, give Tiger a break. He's not perfect, but his family life is his family life. I'm sickened that ESPN turns into Perez Hilton when a role model makes a mistake.
BILLS +3 over Jets
Dick Jauron's departure has the Buffalo offense looking as dangerous as it should've been looking all season. Can't wait to hear what Rex Ryan and Bart Scott have to say after this one. One more thing... TO torches Revis tonight.
Week 12: 8-8, 3-1 Bold
Season Stats: 92-82, 26-21 Bold
BILLS +3 over Jets
Dick Jauron's departure has the Buffalo offense looking as dangerous as it should've been looking all season. Can't wait to hear what Rex Ryan and Bart Scott have to say after this one. One more thing... TO torches Revis tonight.
Week 12: 8-8, 3-1 Bold
Season Stats: 92-82, 26-21 Bold
Saturday, November 28, 2009
Week 12 Preview
Turkey Day: 1-2, 1-0 Bold
Season: 85-76, 24-20 Bold
TEXANS +4 over Colts
I continue to think that the Texans are a better team than the Colts. Indianapolis is a .500 team against the spread and have only the fourth highest point differential despite four games against the very weak NFC West. Houston, on the other hand, should have beaten the Colts in Indianapolis and looked like a Super Bowl contender in the Monday Night thriller against Tennessee. The Colts lasting undefeated this long reminds me of the Hawks lasting against the Celtics in the first round of the 2008 playoffs. It’s been time for two months for the Colts to lose a game. This is going to be a memorable game in years to come of the AFC South.
Browns +14 over BENGALS
Cleveland played Cincinnati very well last time these two teams squared off. I think the Browns can carry some momentum from last week’s performance against the Lions. This intra-state rivalry is rarely separated by a couple of touchdowns. The Browns will keep this close. Only once this season has this Cincinnati team won by more than two touchdowns.
EAGLES -9 over Redskins
It’s amazing to think about just how close Washington was last week from being only two games behind the NFC East lead. Unfortunately, that was not the case. Centered around the big play for a quick strike, Philadelphia’s offense is too explosive for Washington’s defense. There’s going to be an awful lot of pressure on the Redskins’ secondary in this one.
BILLS +4 over Dolphins
Last time these teams met, Ronnie Brown, Dick Jauron, and the game being in Florida put the Dolphins at a significant advantage over Buffalo. Each of those advantages is gone. Buffalo has played good first halves in back-to-back weeks, and I expect them to beat Miami on Sunday.
RAMS +4.5 over Seahawks
I expect Seattle to win this one by under a touchdown but really wouldn’t be surprised if Kyle Boller can lead St. Louis to a win. The NFL’s worst teams have made a lot of progress since the season began while Seattle’s offense has been an absolute mess for weeks.
Panthers +3 over JETS
Memo to Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan: You are leading a team in the National Football League. If you want to play tough against Bill Belichick, then you better expect him to try to not only beat you, but to try to humiliate you. You don’t have the right to be offended if you allow yourself to get into a situation where the other team has the game in their control as early as the Patriots did last Sunday. Ryan needs to start letting his team talk for him. While the Giants have dropped five of the last 6, the Jets have dropped 6 of 7. The only way the Jets stop Williams and Stewart without Kris Jenkins is with the help of Carolina’s coaching staff. So who knows?
FALCONS -12 over Buccaneers
Atlanta’s been waiting to get back to the Georgia dome, and Tampa Bay could be just what the doctor ordered. The Falcons have two tough home games after this one and need to demonstrate that they are not ready to fold the season yet. Tampa Bay is going to try to run the ball all day. This should be over by halftime.
Bears +11 over Vikings
If Chicago can stay close long enough in this one, they have a very real shot of upsetting the Vikings. The Bears have really been struggling but remain a much better team than their record. This is going to be a coaching struggle, and that will never bode well for the Vikings.
TITANS -2 over Cardinals
Could this really be the long-awaited Vince Young vs. Matt Leinart rematch? Probably not. I expect Warner to play, but I expect Tennessee to continue to look like they are one of the best teams in football right now. Since starting Young, the Titans have looked really, really good. While Arizona’s success passing the ball should continue against Tennessee’s average pass defense, I’d like to remind you that the Titans limited an even better passing team to 17 points last Monday.
49ERS -3 over Jaguars
I don’t think San Francisco is quite done. Jacksonville has an awfully long trip to get ready for this one. Maybe this will be the week that San Francisco shows its potential on both sides of the ball. Don’t look now, but Jacksonville is 6-2 in their last eight.
CHARGERS -13.5 over Chiefs
The best part about being in the AFC West is that you get to play against other teams in the AFC West. Kansas City has played some tough games at home, but the Chargers should blow them out of the water. Props to Chief’s coach Todd Haley. Despite Larry Johnson’s criticisms about his inexperience, he has done a remarkable job of keeping Chiefs games interesting. If he’s not careful, my tenth preseason prediction might end up not coming true after all… but I like my odds.
RAVENS +3 over Steelers…
But Dennis Dixon scares me. I feel like Baltimore could play him completely the wrong way. A Ravens win here can really put Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes in jeopardy, especially with some help around the conference. Baltimore’s had a lot of bad luck this season between dropped passes and awful special teams play. I expect the Ravens to outplay Pittsburgh in this one from start to finish.
SAINTS -1.5 over Patriots
I think the Saints’ defense matches up much better against New England’s passing attack than vice versa. As I mentioned in my recent article about the Giants' struggles, the Saints need to get Jeremy Shockey involved early and often. That opens up the whole field for Drew Brees. This game will show just how much better the Saints are than the Colts. Memo to Bill Belichick: Next time you run up the score against somebody, remember how much people loved seeing Stanford run it up against USC.
Friday, November 27, 2009
NYG 6-5
As the reeling 5-3 Giants prepared to face a resurgent San Diego Chargers team in a game that Tom Coughlin would ultimately gift-wrap for the Chargers in the final two minutes, talk out of the Giants locker room suggested that Big Blue viewed the upcoming game as “Their Super Bowl.” Maybe I read too much into it, but the description of the San Diego game as the Super Bowl was one of the most disheartening quotes that I had read this season. The Giants had been coming off of one of the worst losses to the rival Philadelphia Eagles in recent memory, and yet a game with little to no tie-breaking implications was all the sudden the Super Bowl? Granted, the Giants experienced a nine game long preseason that ended with them sitting atop the NFC East with a 5-0 record, but the need to hype the game against the Chargers highlighted to me just how lackadaisically the G-Men had been going through the 2009 campaign. To me, the problems plaguing the Giants are a product of 1. Injuries 2. Coaching and 3. (which goes back to 1 and 2) Attitude. For a season that doesn’t end in December, some of these problems must be fixed immediately.
The Giants have unfortunately been crippled by injuries throughout this entire season. Half the offense has been playing with diagnosed injuries, while almost nobody on defense has been playing at full strength. The Giants do not have a healthy running back better than Gartrell Johnson, who suffice to say is not championship-caliber. Our line play on both sides of the ball, the bread and butter for the last two years of success, has been mediocre at best and put us at a disadvantage, especially on almost every running play on offense and every passing play on defense.
I’ve made my frustration that has been accumulating with the Giants’ coaching staff no secret. Bill Sheridan has called a defense that often looks like an eleven-year-old Madden player who blitzes the kitchen sink on almost every down. On offense, we’ve developed probably the most predictable scheme in football, which I criticized in my preview of this year's offense, Week 3, Week 7, and Week 10. The Giants offense consists of a quick pass on 1st down, usually a run on 2nd down, a pass on 3rd down with anything longer than two yards to go for the 1st (run otherwise), followed by a run on first down (if we get it) and consecutive passes after the run goes nowhere. Personally, I feel like the offensive line’s regression from a strength into a weakness begins with the defense knowing what to expect on virtually every play… and it’s no different on defense. Last night on Denver’s first sustained drive of the game, I remarked to my dad while the Broncos had the ball in field goal range facing a 2nd and 5 that a screen pass to the right would kill our defense. Instead Denver picked up the first down by running the ball, but the play was called back for holding. On the next play, Orton hit Graham to the right on a screen that picked up 17 yards and put Denver in a very good position to take an early lead, a lead that would never be relinquished. If a 20 year old fan who hasn’t played a down of tackle football in seven years and hopes to see every play of the game once at full speed knows what is coming, doesn’t it seem plausible that the people whose job it is to stop whatever’s coming next might somehow have caught on to this pattern?
Finally, the Giants lack leadership on both sides of the ball. I came across this article recently which praised Jeremy Shockey for finally becoming a team player with the New Orleans Saints. While a nice story, I feel Pat Yasinskas completely misses the cause and effect. I view Shockey not too differently than I view Terrell Owens, an ultracompetitive winner who understands the necessity of utilizing his own capabilities in the recipe for success. This season the Saints have won against tough opponents by involving Shockey early and often. In Week 2 against Philadelphia, Shockey caught three passes on the first drive to set the tone. Week 6 against the then undefeated Giants, Shockey caught four balls for 37 yards and a score all in the first half. Against Miami, the Saints were down 24-3 before Shockey’s first catch; they won the game and scored on every drive Shockey caught a ball. To date, Shockey has accumulated 28 of his 39 catches in the first half. Of his 461 yards, 278 have come in the first half (96 second-half yards came in the Miami game in which the Saints offense was dormant during the first half). What’s more, all three of Shockey’s touchdowns this season have come in the first half. Shockey hasn’t complained this year because the Saints have run a successful offense, not because he has matured. He’s thriving, and the team is thriving. As he did in New York, he’s been a presence in the middle that has forced opposing defenses to leave Wide Receivers in man coverage, a recipe for Drew Brees to succeed every time. Shockey wanted to go to the Saints because he knew Sean Payton understands how to get a defense on their heels, an idea Kevin Gilbride has demonstrated zero signs of understanding.
Owens really isn’t much different. In Philadelphia, he killed Donovan McNabb after McNabb failed the team at the end, but imagine putting your own long-term health at risk, working your ass off, and defying all medical expectations for a shot to play in the Super Bowl. Owens did just that and caught nine passes for 122 yards. In the end, quarterback Donovan McNabb’s fatigue stopped Philadelphia from being able to score with enough time left to mount a realistic comeback after a failed onside kick. T.O. has been one of the best competitors the league has seen in this decade. He expects just as much from his teammates and coaches and isn’t afraid to ruffle some feathers when things aren’t going well. It’s also worth mentioning that Owens had been succeeding in Dallas, even with a mediocre quarterback up until Tony Sparano, a coach of the year candidate in my opinion, stopped calling the plays.
Let’s now look at Kevin Boss, one of the best all purpose tight ends in football although with admittedly slightly less potential than Owens and Shockey. Since inheriting Shockey’s job, Boss has been nothing short of a warrior. He kills himself to make a play on every ball and is one heck of a run-blocker. He deserved much of the credit for both the running game and the offensive line’s effectiveness last season. Gilbride’s offense has completely mishandled Kevin Boss and the lack of looks are really the only thing that is keeping him from a well-deserved Pro Bowl bid. He provides the big target for Eli that I’d hoped to see from Ramses Barden (WHERE IS HE?) Boss has failed the Giants by being too much of what the media sees as “a team player.” He’s made the most of every opportunity he’s been given but hasn’t demanded the looks that he and the team needs to be at its best. Just think about how much better every single part of the offense can be when defenses realize just how dangerous the Manning to Boss combination is. Even if this conversation doesn’t happen through Drew Rosenhaus and the media, Boss needs to become a bigger part of the offense. He needs to become a leader and one of the most prolific tight ends as the regular season comes to its conclusion, he’s got the potential- all he needs is the chance.
Eli Manning has been struggling since the 5-0 beginning of the season. While he has been throwing some of the prettiest passes downfield, he has made mistake after mistake around the line of scrimmage. Last night, a miscommunication after a successful play to open the game forced the Giants to burn a timeout. More often than not, he misses running backs on screens. When Denver dropped up to 8 into coverage last night and still was able to apply pressure, Eli should’ve tucked the ball and made a play with his feet- look at all the success the Titans have had with their passing game since defenses were forced to respect the quarterback’s legs. But while Eli hasn’t been terrific, the Giants’ slide is really not his fault.
The Giants desperately need a new play-calling approach. I’ve called for Gilbride to be fired since the middle of last year and continue to insist that last year’s down the stretch collapse can be mainly attributed to him. The man lost out on a coaching vacancy to Tom Cable. That said, I feel like I owe Gilbride some credit. He’s made progress this season as a play-caller but deserves a lot of credit for developing Eli Manning into an elite downfield passer. I attribute Gilbride with correcting Eli’s early career problems under-throwing receivers. That being said, he is the offensive coordinator of an offense that did not look remotely coordinated last night.
Right now, someone needs to step up. The ten day rest leading up to the Dallas game really can’t hurt. 9-7 is not going to cut it this season given the number of atrocious teams in the league. The Giants have back to back home games against Dallas and Philadelphia, followed by a game at Washington. If this isn’t motivation to have the team playing with some fire, then the season is already over. On the other hand, if we can put together some sort of players-only meeting and come out attacking Dallas at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, then the NFC East is within Big Blue’s grasp. We’re not healthy, we’re not well-coached, and we’re not playing with the swagger and the spunk that we’ve had for the 113 weeks leading up to last night (for those counting at home that brings us back to halftime of Week 3 of the 2007 season). You can see it starting at the line of scrimmage on almost every play. Three intradivision wins will virtually guarantee a playoff birth. It’s the regular season, but if we don’t win here than there won’t be any such thing as “our Super Bowl,” although the choke job against San Diego could sum up the season very well.
Final Note: Lots of fans thought Sinorice Moss was going to be cut this preseason because he wasn't as explosive a threat as the other young Giants WRs. Moss ended the preseason with 2 touchdown catches against New England. Since then, he has a touchdown against Tampa Bay but has been a healthy scratch for most of the season. Please give him a chance to show what he can do!
Wednesday, November 25, 2009
Thanksgiving Special
For those of you last week who took my advice on the Ravens game, I sincerely hope you waited until the spread had risen to 3. If you did, then my Sunday picks were a sexy 12-2 including 4-0 on my bold picks, but reality is reality- I went 11-5 last week and 3-1 on my bold picks bringing me to 84-74 overall and 23-20 on the bold picks so far this season.
I'd like to wish everybody a Happy Thanksgiving. Now for a few special people I'd like to thank.
My parents, especially my dad- not only did my dad get me started as a football fan, but this blog would never be possible if it weren't for everything he's given and taught me.
The Giants' 17-14 Super Bowl Win over New England- I've had the upper hand in trash-talking against every Massachusetts friend ever since that glorious, glorious night. Thank you Football Gods.
The Number 27- If the New York Giants had a mascot, he would look a lot like #27, Brandon Jacobs. Past that, the Yankees just won their 27th world series. Multiple family members grew up on #27 of various streets and my grandfather from World War II came home on a ship numbered 27. The number has been in the family for generations... until I was born on February 7, 1989. The sum of the digits in the year is 27. February 7 equates to 2-7. This year the Super Bowl is on February 7, as I turn 21. I'll stop now to save karma points.
All of the readers and commenters on the blog both on the website and off- You guys give me motivation to keep writing.
Carol Ann, Leigh, and Stef- haven't met you, but thanks... A LOT
Bill Simmons- You gave me motivation to start writing.
My friends and family and the fact that we are in good health.
Finally, to everyone like the Tuohy family featured in The Blind Side. For those of you who have made a difference in someone's life, especially those of you unrewarded for doing that, you make the world a better place.
Now for the picks
LIONS +12.5 over Packers
With all the talk about whether or not Detroit is still worthy of hosting a Thanksgiving game, I feel like a fire has been lit under several Lions players. They're coming off a great comeback win over a Browns team that played one of their best games of the season. Compare that to Green Bay who let San Francisco almost sneak away with a game that should've been over at halftime. I think Green Bay comes out flat in this one.
COWBOYS -13.5 over Raiders
Oakland has won three games this season. After beating Kansas City, the Raiders laid an egg at home against Denver and lost by 20. After beating Philadelphia, the Raiders laid a bigger egg at home and lost 38-0 against a Jets team minus Kris Jenkins that gave the Jets their only win since September. Tom Cable is not the coach to teach a team how to handle prosperity, especially on a short week. Expect lots of penalties with Cable and Phillips on the sidelines.
Giants -6 over BRONCOS
May the Kurse of Kern kontinue! Broncos and Titans are a combined 10-0 (Against The Spread and straight up) with Brett Kern and a dismal 0-10 (ATS and SU) without him. Kevin Gilbride called his best game of the year last week for the Giants although Bill Sheridan is still making it too easy. I'd much rather see the Giants keep 7 back in coverage and give the deepest and most dangerous D-Line in the league a couple more seconds to get to Kyle Orton. It will work. I'm waiting to see it happen. I'd also like to inform those of you who think I'm biased by ranking the Giants 4th, let me remind you that the Giants have been the underdog according to the Vegas point spread only twice, against Dallas and New Orleans. Both games were on the road; adjusting to a neutral field would have made the Giants one point favorites in each. This team is never more than a couple breaks away from a solid win, against anybody.
Happy Thanksgiving to all.
I'd like to wish everybody a Happy Thanksgiving. Now for a few special people I'd like to thank.
My parents, especially my dad- not only did my dad get me started as a football fan, but this blog would never be possible if it weren't for everything he's given and taught me.
The Giants' 17-14 Super Bowl Win over New England- I've had the upper hand in trash-talking against every Massachusetts friend ever since that glorious, glorious night. Thank you Football Gods.
The Number 27- If the New York Giants had a mascot, he would look a lot like #27, Brandon Jacobs. Past that, the Yankees just won their 27th world series. Multiple family members grew up on #27 of various streets and my grandfather from World War II came home on a ship numbered 27. The number has been in the family for generations... until I was born on February 7, 1989. The sum of the digits in the year is 27. February 7 equates to 2-7. This year the Super Bowl is on February 7, as I turn 21. I'll stop now to save karma points.
All of the readers and commenters on the blog both on the website and off- You guys give me motivation to keep writing.
Carol Ann, Leigh, and Stef- haven't met you, but thanks... A LOT
Bill Simmons- You gave me motivation to start writing.
My friends and family and the fact that we are in good health.
Finally, to everyone like the Tuohy family featured in The Blind Side. For those of you who have made a difference in someone's life, especially those of you unrewarded for doing that, you make the world a better place.
Now for the picks
LIONS +12.5 over Packers
With all the talk about whether or not Detroit is still worthy of hosting a Thanksgiving game, I feel like a fire has been lit under several Lions players. They're coming off a great comeback win over a Browns team that played one of their best games of the season. Compare that to Green Bay who let San Francisco almost sneak away with a game that should've been over at halftime. I think Green Bay comes out flat in this one.
COWBOYS -13.5 over Raiders
Oakland has won three games this season. After beating Kansas City, the Raiders laid an egg at home against Denver and lost by 20. After beating Philadelphia, the Raiders laid a bigger egg at home and lost 38-0 against a Jets team minus Kris Jenkins that gave the Jets their only win since September. Tom Cable is not the coach to teach a team how to handle prosperity, especially on a short week. Expect lots of penalties with Cable and Phillips on the sidelines.
Giants -6 over BRONCOS
May the Kurse of Kern kontinue! Broncos and Titans are a combined 10-0 (Against The Spread and straight up) with Brett Kern and a dismal 0-10 (ATS and SU) without him. Kevin Gilbride called his best game of the year last week for the Giants although Bill Sheridan is still making it too easy. I'd much rather see the Giants keep 7 back in coverage and give the deepest and most dangerous D-Line in the league a couple more seconds to get to Kyle Orton. It will work. I'm waiting to see it happen. I'd also like to inform those of you who think I'm biased by ranking the Giants 4th, let me remind you that the Giants have been the underdog according to the Vegas point spread only twice, against Dallas and New Orleans. Both games were on the road; adjusting to a neutral field would have made the Giants one point favorites in each. This team is never more than a couple breaks away from a solid win, against anybody.
Happy Thanksgiving to all.
Saturday, November 21, 2009
Week 11 Picks
Week 11 Picks: The Way Too Much Work for Details Edition
Week 10: 6-8-1, 3-1 Bold
Thursday Night: 0-1
Season: 74-70, 21-20 Bold
Bills +9 over JAGUARS
Dick Jauron needed to go a long time ago.
CHIEFS +10 over Steelers
Kansas City has been playing well, and Pittsburgh has a few injuries on defense.
RAVENS +1.5 over Colts
I wish this pick could count for 10 picks. Easiest pick of the week.
VIKINGS -11 over Seahawks
Vikings have been playing really well; don’t expect Seattle to compete.
GIANTS -6.5 over Falcons
As the line increases my confidence decreases (weird, I know). Hate to say it, but I think Antonio Pierce’s injury is a blessing in disguise for the Giants. Provides the right motivation for some guys to really step it up. Big test.
Saints -11 over BUCS
Don’t think I haven’t noticed how good Tampa Bay has looked since starting Josh Freeman. Don’t think New Orleans hasn’t noticed either.
Browns +3.5 over LIONS
Browns defense has been looking good and Rams game taught me never to lay points with the Lions.
49ers +6.5 over PACKERS
I like San Francisco’s team too much to lay this spread against them. Green Bay is a much better underdog than favorite.
Redskins +11 over COWBOYS
This could be that game that is punctuated at the end by a Dallas “eff-you” touchdown to seal the deal for the guys in Vegas... but it could also be another Romo choke job down the stretch against an NFC East opponent. Could Washington really put two wins together?
RAMS +9.5 over Cardinals
Upset special.
Jets +11 over Patriots
I don’t expect the Patriots to lose, but I think the Jets aren’t as bad as they’ve been playing recently.
RAIDERS +9.5 over Bengals
Let’s see if Bruce Gradkowski can let Darrius Heyword-Bey show fans why Al Davis drafted him.
Chargers -4 over BRONCOS
It's midnight Cinderella.
Eagles -3 over BEARS
I see the Eagles winning this one by 3, so this is my least confident pick.
TEXANS -4.5 over Titans
Weirdest game of the week. The two best teams right now in the AFC South (Indy would not beat either team on a neutral field). Speaking of which, the Colts sure are lucky they get their two toughest games to date against teams coming off back to back Monday night games (Baltimore this week, Houston next week).
Week 10: 6-8-1, 3-1 Bold
Thursday Night: 0-1
Season: 74-70, 21-20 Bold
Bills +9 over JAGUARS
Dick Jauron needed to go a long time ago.
CHIEFS +10 over Steelers
Kansas City has been playing well, and Pittsburgh has a few injuries on defense.
RAVENS +1.5 over Colts
I wish this pick could count for 10 picks. Easiest pick of the week.
VIKINGS -11 over Seahawks
Vikings have been playing really well; don’t expect Seattle to compete.
GIANTS -6.5 over Falcons
As the line increases my confidence decreases (weird, I know). Hate to say it, but I think Antonio Pierce’s injury is a blessing in disguise for the Giants. Provides the right motivation for some guys to really step it up. Big test.
Saints -11 over BUCS
Don’t think I haven’t noticed how good Tampa Bay has looked since starting Josh Freeman. Don’t think New Orleans hasn’t noticed either.
Browns +3.5 over LIONS
Browns defense has been looking good and Rams game taught me never to lay points with the Lions.
49ers +6.5 over PACKERS
I like San Francisco’s team too much to lay this spread against them. Green Bay is a much better underdog than favorite.
Redskins +11 over COWBOYS
This could be that game that is punctuated at the end by a Dallas “eff-you” touchdown to seal the deal for the guys in Vegas... but it could also be another Romo choke job down the stretch against an NFC East opponent. Could Washington really put two wins together?
RAMS +9.5 over Cardinals
Upset special.
Jets +11 over Patriots
I don’t expect the Patriots to lose, but I think the Jets aren’t as bad as they’ve been playing recently.
RAIDERS +9.5 over Bengals
Let’s see if Bruce Gradkowski can let Darrius Heyword-Bey show fans why Al Davis drafted him.
Chargers -4 over BRONCOS
It's midnight Cinderella.
Eagles -3 over BEARS
I see the Eagles winning this one by 3, so this is my least confident pick.
TEXANS -4.5 over Titans
Weirdest game of the week. The two best teams right now in the AFC South (Indy would not beat either team on a neutral field). Speaking of which, the Colts sure are lucky they get their two toughest games to date against teams coming off back to back Monday night games (Baltimore this week, Houston next week).
Friday, November 20, 2009
Midseason Awards and Power Rankings
Each of the following awards are dedicated either to someone’s 2008 season or some recent news.
Corey Webster Most Improved Award
1. Cedric Benson
2. Steve Smith (NYG)
3. Sidney Rice
4. Vernon Davis
5. Kyle Orton
HM: Elvis Dumervil
LaDainian Tomlinson Most Regressed Award
1. Steve Slaton
2. Kerry Collins
3. Matt Forte
4. Jake Delhomme
5. Jason Elam
HM: Le’Ron McClain
HM: Derek Anderson
Terrell Owens (Philadelphia Version) Comeback Player Award
1. Carson Palmer
2. Tom Brady
3. Reggie Bush
4. Brett Favre
5. Osi Umenyiora
Dick Jauron Worst Employed Coach Award
1. Wade Phillips
2. Tom Cable
3. Mike McCarthy
4. Tom Coughlin
5. Eric Mangini
HM: Raheem Morris
HM: Norv Turner
Pre-2008 Bill Belichick Best Coach Award
1. Marvin Lewis
2. Josh McDaniels
3. Sean Payton
4. Tony Sparano
5. Mike Smith
HM: Steve Spagnuolo
HM: Gary Kubiak
Chris Johnson Rookie of the Year Award
1. Clay Matthews (GB)
2. Percy Harvin (Min)
3. Beanie Wells (Ari)
4. Josh Freeman (TB)
5. Jeremy Maclin (Phi)
Nnadmi Asomugha Hidden Gem Award (Guy not getting credit for his play)
1. Aubrayo Franklin, SF
2. Curtis Lofton, Atl
3. Darrelle Revis, NYJ
4. David Garrard, Jax
5. Shaun Rogers, Cle
Postseason Larry Fitzgerald MVP Award
1. Peyton Manning
2. Matt Schaub
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Darren Sharper
5. Chris Johnson
HM: DeAngelo Williams
HM: Brett Favre
Memphis Kansas Championship Game that never happened Game of the Year Award
1. Patriots 34 Colts 35
2. 49ers 24 Vikings 27
3. Steelers 20 Bengals 23
4. Giants 33 Cowboys 31
5. Vikings 38 Packers 26
HM: Vikings 17 Steelers 27
And now…
Power Rankings
32. Cleveland Browns
31. Detroit Lions
30. St. Louis Rams
29. Oakland Raiders
28. Kansas City Chiefs
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
26. Seattle Seahawks
25. Buffalo Bills
24. Washington Redskins
23. Carolina Panthers
22. Miami Dolphins
21. Jacksonville Jaguars
20. Chicago Bears
19. New York Jets
18. Denver Broncos
17. Tennessee Titans
16. San Francisco 49ers
15. Arizona Cardinals
14. Atlanta Falcons
13. Dallas Cowboys
12. Green Bay Packers
11. Pittsburgh Steelers
10. San Diego Chargers
9. Indianapolis Colts
8. Houston Texans
7. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Baltimore Ravens
5. Cincinnati Bengals
4. New York Giants
3. New England Patriots
2. New Orleans Saints
1. Minnesota Vikings
These Power Rankings reflect how good I think these teams can be at full potential (60% weight) and how good these teams can be week in and week out (40% weight).
Corey Webster Most Improved Award
1. Cedric Benson
2. Steve Smith (NYG)
3. Sidney Rice
4. Vernon Davis
5. Kyle Orton
HM: Elvis Dumervil
LaDainian Tomlinson Most Regressed Award
1. Steve Slaton
2. Kerry Collins
3. Matt Forte
4. Jake Delhomme
5. Jason Elam
HM: Le’Ron McClain
HM: Derek Anderson
Terrell Owens (Philadelphia Version) Comeback Player Award
1. Carson Palmer
2. Tom Brady
3. Reggie Bush
4. Brett Favre
5. Osi Umenyiora
Dick Jauron Worst Employed Coach Award
1. Wade Phillips
2. Tom Cable
3. Mike McCarthy
4. Tom Coughlin
5. Eric Mangini
HM: Raheem Morris
HM: Norv Turner
Pre-2008 Bill Belichick Best Coach Award
1. Marvin Lewis
2. Josh McDaniels
3. Sean Payton
4. Tony Sparano
5. Mike Smith
HM: Steve Spagnuolo
HM: Gary Kubiak
Chris Johnson Rookie of the Year Award
1. Clay Matthews (GB)
2. Percy Harvin (Min)
3. Beanie Wells (Ari)
4. Josh Freeman (TB)
5. Jeremy Maclin (Phi)
Nnadmi Asomugha Hidden Gem Award (Guy not getting credit for his play)
1. Aubrayo Franklin, SF
2. Curtis Lofton, Atl
3. Darrelle Revis, NYJ
4. David Garrard, Jax
5. Shaun Rogers, Cle
Postseason Larry Fitzgerald MVP Award
1. Peyton Manning
2. Matt Schaub
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Darren Sharper
5. Chris Johnson
HM: DeAngelo Williams
HM: Brett Favre
Memphis Kansas Championship Game that never happened Game of the Year Award
1. Patriots 34 Colts 35
2. 49ers 24 Vikings 27
3. Steelers 20 Bengals 23
4. Giants 33 Cowboys 31
5. Vikings 38 Packers 26
HM: Vikings 17 Steelers 27
And now…
Power Rankings
32. Cleveland Browns
31. Detroit Lions
30. St. Louis Rams
29. Oakland Raiders
28. Kansas City Chiefs
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
26. Seattle Seahawks
25. Buffalo Bills
24. Washington Redskins
23. Carolina Panthers
22. Miami Dolphins
21. Jacksonville Jaguars
20. Chicago Bears
19. New York Jets
18. Denver Broncos
17. Tennessee Titans
16. San Francisco 49ers
15. Arizona Cardinals
14. Atlanta Falcons
13. Dallas Cowboys
12. Green Bay Packers
11. Pittsburgh Steelers
10. San Diego Chargers
9. Indianapolis Colts
8. Houston Texans
7. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Baltimore Ravens
5. Cincinnati Bengals
4. New York Giants
3. New England Patriots
2. New Orleans Saints
1. Minnesota Vikings
These Power Rankings reflect how good I think these teams can be at full potential (60% weight) and how good these teams can be week in and week out (40% weight).
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