Week 4 Preview

We are now three weeks into one of the most interesting and yet perplexing football seasons in recent memory. Let’s take a look at what we’ve got.

1. New Jersey 6-0 Missouri 0-6

Not enough can be said by how good the Giants and the Jets have looked this year. I’m not surprised by the Giants’ Wide Receivers pulling their weight and certainly not surprised with how effective the defense has been. The Jets are another story. Props to Rex Ryan for putting together so much success for the Jets especially given the way last year ended and the injury report controversy. Kansas City and St. Louis are in rebuilding stages. The Chiefs made a big mistake by dealing their best quarterback to Miami this week. St. Louis does have the defense to win a couple of games, but they are still a truly terrible football team.

2. Another Washington bailout of Detroit

As people are jumping off the Washington bandwagon faster and faster, I strongly urge them to reconsider. Washington hasn’t executed well once so far this season. That will change. I like Jim Zorn and think that he is the right man for the job in Washington. The Redskins need to figure out how to involve Portis, Moss, and Cooley together on offense. Once they can get some production from each of them, Zorn can open up the playbook and try what he’s been trying to do. * They were incredibly fortunate to pick up the backdoor cover Week 1 in the Meadowlands. Detroit, on the other hand, hasn’t played that badly. They put up almost 30 points against New Orleans and went into halftime ahead of the undefeated Vikings. The Lions have played three games. They’ve lost to two undefeated teams and beaten a team whose only other loss was to an undefeated team. The Lions are getting ten points in Chicago this week, which is awfully tempting.

I feel it is worth mentioning that the day after I wrote this, Clinton Portis announced that he is due for a 200 yard game. We will see.

3. Field Goal Failures

Field goal kickers are kicking just over 81% so far this year. There have already been THIRTEEN misses from under 40 yards. That’s terrible. When your offense can get the ball in the Red Zone, put it through the uprights.

4. San Francisco

What happens to Bill Simmons’s Ewing Theory when the Tiki or the Ewing on the team never even shows up to camp? They win back to back games against their biggest competition in the division before being seconds away from 3-0. Singletary has done a really nice job putting a competitive team back in San Francisco, but the 49ers will not be much of a threat to any team outside their division. Just how bad is the NFC West? The best metaphor I could come up with involves a quote from Waiting, when Mitch calls out Monty yelling “We get it, man. You're fuckin' edgy and cool. Yeah! You're the coolest fuckin' guy at Shenaniganz! WHOOO! That's like being the smartest kid with Down syndrome!” Throw Mike Singletary in for Ryan Reynolds and we may very well have our next line of Coors Lite Commercials.

5. Stories About No Stories

If you were to ask a member of the media today what Terrell Owens could do to be considered in their mind a good teammate, they’d look at you as if you had three heads. Terrell Owens? A good teammate? The reality is that T.O. is in the same situation to which Allen Iverson alluded the other day. If the Bills lose without involving Owens in the offense, T.O. isn’t living up to his contract. If the Bills lose games where Owens puts up breakout numbers, Owens is too much of a distraction to the rest of the offense. So far it’s been the former. The same also applies for postgame press conferences. He is either apathetic or selfish. T.O. has found himself in a situation where he’s been working hard every down and is still being knocked by the media. There is nothing he can say or do right now to change public perception. Hopefully, Buffalo can put together a good couple drives and get a key division win in Miami this week.

6. 123 0-3

A 1 seed, a 2 seed, and a 3 seed from last year’s playoffs have started the year a combined 0-9. What’s more, both Conference Champions from last year are 1-2. Ben Roethlisberger lost his first game in Ohio and the Cardinals lost a divisional game at home after going 6-0 in the NFC West last season. What’s going on?

7. Cupcake Schedules

From day one of this season, I have criticized the Colts and said that they do not belong with the contenders this season. The Colts have started the season with a home win against a divisional rival in the Jacksonville Jaguars and have since defeated defending division champions Miami and Arizona. They are 3-0 and leapfrogged the Giants for the number 2 spot in ESPN’s power rankings. Still, as I’ve said before, the Colts are not a very good football team. As the schedule stands right now, the Colts are not slated to play a better than .500 team until the current NFC West leaders, the San Francisco 49ers come to Indianapolis in November. And guess what? They won’t be undefeated come November.

The Denver Broncos have been very impressive in their ascent to the top of the AFC West. They were fortunate to squeak by Cincinnati but were very impressive in their manhandling of the Browns and Raiders. The Broncos’ schedule is about to get harder and fast. I see Denver winning at most three out of their next eight games, and would be very impressed if they can do so. They’re already better than I expected.

8. Brown Days

I feel like the disappointment felt by the city of Cleveland after the LeBrons lost to the Magic has been contagious so much to the fact that the Browns don’t feel like they have anything to play for. Last week, I said on Sports Talk Cleveland (Check ITunes for the By The Numbers podcast on 9/23/09 at around the 25 minute mark) that I love Mangini’s decision to play Anderson over Quinn. Anderson is already a playmaker, and the only shot the Browns have of putting together a fight at this point is giving Anderson a chance to air it out to Edwards. I still have faith that Cleveland can look like a Top 30 team this year (yes that is a joke).

9. Giant Struggles

Despite putting together one of the best defensive performances in recent memory and moving the ball with ease against Tampa Bay, I have some serious concerns with the way the Giants are playing. Brandon Jacobs is having his worst season to date, so much to the point that he’s mentioned a possible retirement if his production can’t increase. Last year, it took Jacobs 33 carries to reach the 200 yard mark in the fourth quarter of Week 2. This year, he needs to start off Week 4 with at least a four yard gain just to make 200 yards without needing 60 carries. Especially considering just how good the Giants’ run-blocking is, Jacobs has no excuse for his lack of production. The thing is, however, he doesn’t need one. Jacobs has yet to return to true form because the defense expects him to get the ball when he gets the ball. My buddy Tim, one of the few true Big Blue fans on campus, and I can call out the plays the Giants decide to rush the ball. The defense knows what’s coming too. It never feels like the Giants catch the defense off guard and on their heels with running plays this year. On the contrary, the defense swarms the backfield almost instantaneously, more so than they would against any other team. The current routine of “dropped pass by the back on first down, three yard run on second down, and completion of third and long for a chance to run nowhere on first down” doesn’t lead to Championships. Gilbride can’t call plays for the team anymore, and also Eli needs to be trickier behind Center.

10. My Numbers

So far this season, I’ve gotten off to an average 27-21 start. I’m a mediocre 6-6 in my bold picks so far. I’m 0-2 in games where the spread is off by half a point. I’m also winless in my picks of games involving the Broncos, Browns, Lions, Panthers, and Redskins for a 27-8 record on all other games. Another interesting fact about this season: road teams have beaten the spread by a combined total of over 100 points more than the home teams have this year. It averages to over a point per quarter.

The Picks

Raiders +9 over TEXANS

Titans -3 over JAGUARS

PATRIOTS -2 over Ravens

BROWNS +6.5 over Bengals

Giants -9 over CHIEFS

Lions +10 over BEARS

REDSKINS -7 over Buccaneers

Seahawks +10.5 over COLTS

SAINTS -7 over Jets

Bills -1 over DOLPHINS

Rams +10 over 49ERS

Cowboys -3 over BRONCOS

Chargers +7 over STEELERS

Packers +3.5 over VIKINGS

Bet of the Week: I feel that either Seattle will beat Indianapolis or get blown out. I like a two bet out of four Round Robin taking the Rams, Chargers, Seahawks, and Lions with the money-lines. Most likely the bet will not hit, but if it does- the payout can be HUGE. This week I feel like we will see several upsets.