Week 9 Picks

Last Week: 8-5 overall, 3-1 bold picks

Season: 63-52 overall, 16-15 bold picks

Between Week 5 and Week 8: 32-21 overall, 9-6 bold picks

In a season that has been limited to very few upsets and more cellar-dwellers than the league has seen in a long time, Week 9 should provide a nice refreshing dose of upsets that will shock the experts on the pregame show. The Colts/Falcons/Patriots teaser this week will get crushed.

Hats off to Fox for taking the pregame show to Afghanistan this week, right before Veteran's day. That being said, it goes without saying that we owe a lot more of an appreciation to the troops abroad that the show is hoping to visit. Thank you to the men and women who are serving our country. Please don't think for a moment that we don't appreciate you.

Happy 21st Birthday today to my grade school buddy, Tommy Melly. Congratulations on the news from last week too.

To the picks:

Chiefs +7 over JAGUARS

Drama such as the hoopla surrounding Larry Johnson’s criticism of Coach Todd Haley and anti-homosexual (I took too much Classics in High School to use the word “homophobic.” By bringing up a word with homosexual connotations doesn’t it mean you are not afraid of the issue. Just because one associates homosexual connotations as negative connotations, doesn’t mean he or she fears gays) slurs on twitter has Bill Simmons’s Ewing Theory written all over it. Johnson’s been the workhorse of the team; Smith and Charles’s fresh legs should keep Jacksonville on their heels all game. Factor in the coaching mismatch, Kansas City should keep this within a score.

Ravens -3 over BENGALS

I continue to think Baltimore is the best team in the AFC. #1. Players are going to be coming out with a sense of purpose from the beginning. I’d be astonished if the Ravens allowed Cincinnati to sweep them in the season series. A couple Bengal mistakes will be all the Ravens need to make this one turn ugly. But the Bengals are at home? This game was almost blacked out because the fan base is so nonchalant. There’s more love for the Bengals last year’s on campus poker game than there is on Sundays in Paul Brown stadium. Because I feel it’s more important to gloat than to actually continue my success without jinxing it, let me add that I’m a combined 12-2 in picking games with either of these teams.

Texans +9 over COLTS

My two leading MVP candidates, Matt Schaub and Peyton Manning, square off in a game that will have huge implications in January. I continue to be unimpressed by the victories the Colts have racked up this season. San Francisco should have beaten Indianapolis after they were slaughtered by Houston in the first half, 21-0. The Texans have a +51 scoring differential in the past five games including a win in Cincinnati against a Bengals team that is also better than the Colts and were very close to sneaking away with a win in Arizona too. Unfortunately for Houston and for my blog, this game comes at a terrible time; Houston just lost Owen Daniels for the season and past history indicates they are due for a letdown game. Moreover, unfortunately for Indianapolis, these games against divisional opponents are the games in which you actually need a coach. The Colts are losing players on defense too. This spread is 5 points too high. Don’t be surprised if Houston comes out of this one with the win. They’re the better team, even though they’re on the road.

Redskins +10 over FALCONS

The Redskins have had two weeks to think about the woeful state of their franchise. Clinton Portis has had some much needed rest, and the Skins are playing a Falcon team that is coming off of a short week after a dramatic performance against the best team in the league. Also, Washington’s getting 10 points. Atlanta’s advantage on defense against the Washington offensive line will be somewhat neutralized. Michael Turner is going to really struggle, prompting several “What’s going on in Atlanta” articles all over the internet this week. Be ready.

Packers -10 over BUCCANEERS

This year’s Tampa Bay offense reminds me of a gentleman for whom I caddied two summers ago. We all know people like him. He was trying out a new set of top of the line golf clubs. For some reason, all round he was sending balls straight into the ground. Obviously, this infuriated him and prompted him to complain to the other golfers and to me about what crap the clubs were. It never occurred to him that he might need to change his swing. As the round progressed and more alcohol was consumed, the other golfers started to heckle him. After one of them hit a good shot, they’d sarcastically quip something about being so fortunate to not be stuck with his clubs. He caught on that they were making fun of him, and in the end I went home frustrated with a lousy tip.

Tampa Bay has had significantly better quarterback play from Leftwich and Johnson than I expected from them; Johnson in particular has surprised me. They have multiple quality running backs too. Their offensive line, however, has been horrendous. By switching to Josh Freeman, Coach Morris is essentially demoing the new, sexy set of golf clubs. It doesn’t matter what the technology is; without a competent golfer, don’t expect great results. Instead of playing musical chairs at quarterback, Tampa Bay should try to find a way to get some resemblance of a push from their offensive line. I can’t wait for him to be surprised once Freeman finds a Packer cornerback for his first interception right after being flushed out of the pocket. A good coach would know this, but Tampa Bay fired Jon Gruden last year. The Packers should win this by 20.

BEARS -3 over Cardinals

An overrated team with an easy schedule against an underrated team with a hard schedule. All three of Chicago’s losses have come on the road, against potential playoff teams. Arizona, as I predicted last week, lost to a struggling Carolina team. Barring a three-plus interception performance from Jay Cutler, the Bears should cruise through this one.

Dolphins +10.5 over PATRIOTS

Miami is 3-0 in games against AFC East opponents, whereas New England is 1-1 with a minus-6 point differential. Expect 200 yards rushing from the Dolphins and maybe 30 from the Patriots. It’s time also for me to say the unthinkable, in as drawn out a way as possible. The most important storyline from the AFC East this season has nothing to do with new faces such as Terrell Owens and Mark Sanchez. I’ve decided to be the one to break some sobering news to New England fans. For dramatic effect, I’m going to ask for a drumroll… wait for it… wait for it… wait for it… ok ready?

Bill Belichick, once the consensus best coach in football is past his prime and has been figured out. Let me restate that. The Patriots have lost the coaching advantage to which fans have grown so accustomed with the hoodie. They’ve been outcoached in multiple games this season. Wow that feels like a huge burden off my chest. I’d be more surprised to see the Patriots cover this one than I would to see the Dolphins pull off the upset. I can’t wait.

SAINTS -13 over Panthers

The Saints are going to have one of their biggest tests of the season against the Panthers, but it would be crazy to suggest that that will happen in New Orleans. As I’ve been saying, the Panthers are not as bad as many people have suggested, but they still won’t keep this one close. Drew Brees is due for another very big game this week.

SEAHAWKS -10 over Lions

There’s a reason that a team can be blown out by 22 points only to return home and lay a double digit line. If you have Matt Hasselbeck on a fantasy team, please start him- you will be handsomely rewarded. The Lions’ defense won’t be able to stop Seattle at all. I think this final looks something like 34-16.

49ERS -4 over Titans

San Francisco gets a chance to try out their new and improved offense against a defense that allowed 59 points the last time they were on the road. Vince Young succeeded last week because the Jaguars gave him coverage that Kerry Collins would have shredded. Don’t expect Mike Singletary to make the same mistake. This is a mismatch in San Francisco’s favor on both sides of the ball.

GIANTS -4.5 over Chargers

Disappointing stretch of games in a season with lofty expectations? Check. Quarterback named Manning? Check. Old coach who looks like he’s a threat to charge the referees every time the camera shows his face? Check. Conclusion? The Giants could very well only have to lay one or two more eggs before Tom Coughlin one ups Jim Mora’s legendary “Playoffs?!” rant. I do feel like at some point early in this game, the Chargers will catch the Giants off guard with a Tomlinson pass or a reverse. That being said, I feel like this is finally the game that the Giants win after allowing the other team a brief lead. I think San Diego’s defense isn’t good enough to stop the Big Blue attack and sincerely hope that the same isn’t true on the other side of the ball.

EAGLES -3 over Cowboys

The Eagles are a much better coached and overall much more dangerous team than Dallas. The last time these teams squared off, Tony Romo collapsed in the shower. Since then, Philly has gotten better and Dallas has gotten worse. Philadelphia is going to break multiple big rushes and cruise to a win over Dallas. The Romo/Phillips connection in Dallas has about as much potential to win a big one as a Joe Biden/Howard Dean ticket does of winning in 2012.

BRONCOS +3 over Steelers

My first time picking Denver with the spread all season corresponds not to me thinking highly of them, rather to my expectations that Ben Roethlisberger will have a TERRIBLE game. I suspect the Steelers are going to rely too much on the pass in the beginning and play from behind for three quarters. This is one of the toughest games for me to pick this week, because I feel that both teams are overrated. We will see.