The Super Bowl

February 7, 2010 marks the first time that the NFL #1 seed plays since the city of Los Angeles had not one, but two football teams. Just a few short weeks ago, the Indianapolis Colts and the New Orleans Saints were a combined 26-0 and their coaches (of course) were brilliant. Then the Dallas Cowboys came to the Superdome, on the shoulders of their rushing attack… and the streak was history. The Colts and Saints then rested their players and threw in the towel to close out the regular season and their coaches (of course) were crazy. Since then, the Colts have won back to back games convincingly while the Saints took the Arizona Cardinals apart before Brett Favre threw the Vikings’ season right into Terry Porter’s hands. Yet it’s the Saints, not the Colts who’ll leave Miami with the title.

New Orleans has the best passing offense in the league. Drew Brees has fallen off from his 2008 season but can still take advantage of mismatches downfield. The Saints are still undefeated when Jeremy Shockey plays a down and have a plethora of weapons with Reggie Bush, Marques Colston, and anyone else Brees picks as the key to beat his opponents. Indianapolis hasn’t demonstrated an ability to stop the pass this season, and the Saints will expose them.

Now I know what anybody who has read my blog is thinking right now. I’ve knocked the Colts all season, predicting them to miss the playoffs after about a .500 season. So let me use some statistics to make my case. Of the teams with the top 10 highest passing yardage totals this season, the Colts have only faced the #1 ranked Texans and the #3 ranked Patriots (Manning, Curtis Painter & Co rank 2^nd). Everyone remembers how well the Patriots threw the ball against Indianapolis- accumulating a 20 point lead before their lack of a running game caught up to them. What some people may be forgetting, however, is just how effective Matt Schaub and the Houston Texans were at certain parts of both contests. The Texans took over for the first time in the 2^nd quarter down 13-0 and outplayed the Colts for almost the entire rest of the game. Houston put together 3 drives that accumulated over 80 yards and had an equally promising 61 yard drive cut short by the clock. Indianapolis needed two interceptions and a goal line fumble to beat the Texans at home… and still could only squeak out a win by the skin of their teeth as Kris Brown missed a 42 yard field goal that would’ve forced overtime. Three weeks later, the Texans jumped out to a 17-0 lead and gradually gave it away as their offense evaporated for 34 minutes of football. Houston exposed Indianapolis’s weak pass defense even after the Texans lost Tight End Owen Daniels for the season. New England exposed them too. The Colts’ relatively perfect season would not have held up against Newi Orleans’s schedule.

Let’s take a look at how the Saints and Colts have done against common opponents. Both teams played the Rams, Cardinals, and the AFC East (though the Colts didn’t really play against Buffalo). The Colts were clearly more impressive against St. Louis; they won 42-6 while the Saints were a few feet from being handed their first loss. The Colts beat the Cardinals 31-10 while the Saints slaughtered Arizona in the playoffs 45-14. Considering Arizona was coming off a playoff win when they played New Orleans compared to having a still-developing developing running game when they played Indianapolis. Onto the AFC East. Even though there was a 43 point differential between the two final scores, we’ll count Buffalo as a wash because the one position (QB) at which the Colts typically have the best player in the league was occupied by Curtis Painter. The Colts traded possessions with Miami and won on the last play of the game… back when Chad Pennington had yet to be replaced. On the other hand, the Saints surrendered a 24-3 lead to the Dolphins by the 2 minute mark of the first half (Saints were to kick off to start the second half too), before rallying to win 46-34. They showed heart and resilience that separated them from other top teams such as the Vikings and Cowboys. Against the Jets, the Saints got a few lucky breaks and ran out the clock against the best defense in the league when they still had a healthy nose tackle, their key to stopping the run. Last week, Indianapolis was outplayed by the Jets in the first half and saved by the disappearing act that was the Jets’ offense in the second half… not to mention some VERY questionable officiating. Finally, who can forget the late games each team had when the Patriots came to town. Until the Patriots abandoned their downfield passing game, the Colts had been getting crushed; the Saints on the other hand, put together four consecutive touchdown drives. So while the Colts looked much better against St. Louis, it was the Saints who were more impressive against Arizona, New England, Miami, Buffalo*, and Rex Ryan’s Jets. Advantage New Orleans.

Again, Manning’s been playing some really incredible football this year. When Indianapolis finally decided to beat the Jets through the air, the Jets’ lack of healthy depth at cornerback was exposed. The Saints do not have the same problem. On the other side of the ball, I really can’t imagine the Colts putting up much of a fight against the Saints’ passing attack. The Saints have too much firepower. We’ll see Dwight Freeney as a pass-rushing specialist on 3^rd and long, but he won’t make enough of a difference to slow down the Saints. Don’t expect the Saints to need turnovers to keep it close either. I’m certain that Jim Caldwell realizes how often the Saints have stripped their opponents and emphasized that to his team during practices.

Saints +6 over Colts

Final Score: Saints 41 Colts 24

Best Value Bets for:

MVP

1. Jeremy Shockey (25/1)

2. Devery Henderson (22/1)

3. Drew Brees (43/20)

4. Dallas Clark (12/1)

5. Donald Brown (28/1)

HM: Field (12/1)

Other bets I like:

Completion Percentage: Peyton Manning UNDER 67.5

NO Safety -1200

I’d like to caution anybody thinking of betting on Reggie Bush for game MVP. Only do it if you think these assumptions will be met:

1. Player has a reasonable shot at making the key difference in the game

2. You believe the player has a better chance at being the difference than any professional analysts suggest

Ok, #1 is met without question. Reggie Bush can change the pace of the game on a single play… but there will be huge public money on him. It’s not a great bet.

It’s going to be a great game. Enjoy it.