Conference Championship Picks

NFC Domination

Before I mention that my 2-2 record and loss in my bold pick last week means I need three consecutive wins to finish with a winning record on the season, allow me this sentence to gloat about going 4/4 on prop picks in last week's entry.

Jets +8 7-11 (1-2) over COLTS 5-12 (2-3)

By my standards, the AFC Championship game pits Rex Ryan, the best active defensive mastermind in football, against the one mind capable of thwarting his best laid plans, Peyton Manning. While Manning has gradually regressed from his best football of the season, he still is playing at a remarkable level. Peyton has turned the tightest coverages on the field into high percentage throws. Occasionally, Manning’s aggressive throws have translated into interceptions and given the opposing team a chance to keep pace.

I predicted that this would be the season where the Colts’ streak of postseason appearances would finally come to an end. Indianapolis has made a mockery out of my forecast by rolling to 15 wins in the 15 games in which they’ve played to win…. And yet I’m still not ready to group them with the class of the NFL. In their division, the Colts were given two games despite being outplayed by the more talented Texans, squeaked by the Jaguars twice, and demolished the Titans with Kerry Collins while still handily defeating them with Vince Young. The Colts finished 2^nd in their division last year which gave them an easy win over Denver and amazingly also a win over the Baltimore Ravens who had plenty of opportunities to win. The Colts played four games against the AFC East; they miraculously came back from way behind to beat the New England Patriots in the memorable “4^th and 2” Sunday Night showdown and squeaked by against a then winless Miami Dolphins team to cover the 3.5 point spread by half a point. Both Buffalo and the Jets defeated Curtis Painter. Finally, the Colts were blessed with four relatively easy games against the NFC West. Only San Francisco came close.

Despite having a losing record against their counterparts in the AFC, I feel the NFC has been a much stronger and more dangerous conference this season. The four top five teams by my power rankings who do not play in Indianapolis all come from the NFC. It’s also worth mentioning that in their seven games against the top half of my rankings, the Colts only beat the 14^th ranked Cardinals by a convincing margin. Against the 7^th ranked Ravens, 8^th ranked Jets, 10^th ranked Patriots, twice against the 13^th ranked Texans, and against the 15^th ranked 49ers, the Colts faced problems.

Today, Darrelle Revis will really test Manning with his coverage on Reggie Wayne. It’s up to Rex Ryan to find a way for the Jets to contain Clark, Garcon, Collie, and Addai. Brian Schottenheimer has to help out by avoiding three-and-outs and situations where Mark Sanchez can let the Colts back into the game. I envision a defensive struggle and thus can’t lay eight points against the Jets. The third and fourth best team remaining will put on an exciting show.

Jets 17 Colts 16

SAINTS -4 10-7 (0-2) over Vikings 6-11 (2-3)

The Dallas Cowboys had been rolling on the wheels of their running game and came to a sudden halt when they faced the dangerous defensive line of the Vikings. Don’t expect the Saints to face the same problem. Unlike Dallas, New Orleans has the personnel for a pass-first offense and needs a running game to maintain the balance of the offense rather than to set the tone. The Saints remain undefeated with Jeremy Shockey, who should play despite injury. I don’t think Minnesota can match up with New Orleans’s offensive firepower. If they do somehow manage to contain every Wide Receiver, look for the running backs to pick up first down after first down.

There are a number of factors that lead me to pick New Orleans.

1. Sean Payton vs. Brad Childress

2. Superdome Crowd Noise

3. Saints WRs too overwhelming for Vikings CBs

Minnesota has an outstanding team complete with a veteran playmaking quarterback, dangerous running backs who can score on any play, a number of capable Wide Receivers (though somewhat depleted without Percy Harvin at full strength), and a defense that has kept them among the league’s elite. On paper they are the most complete team in the NFL. In Minnesota, this game would be a lot closer. I expect New Orleans to beat Minnesota in the biggest game to ever be played in New Orleans before defeating the winner of the AFC Championship by multiple scores.

Saints 31 Vikings 17

NFC Winner -3.5 over AFC Winner