This year’s playoff field is very deep. The NFC features the New Orleans Saints with the best air attack in football combined with a defense that can also put up points in bunches. After that there are Minnesota Vikings who have the most balanced roster on paper with their ability to throw based off a strong running game and the best push in the trenches but also a very weak coach in Brad Childress. The Dallas Cowboys are just hitting their stride now that they’ve come to terms with being a run-first team, but they too have coaching problems. The Arizona Cardinals, who won three NFC playoff games last year, have only gotten better as they’ve added a consistent running game and made strides on defense to make up for Kurt Warner’s regression over this season. The Green Bay Packers at the #5 seed are a VERY dangerous team with better statistics over the second half of the season than anybody else in the league and also a surprising number of parallels to the 2007/2008 New York Giants team that won it all. Finally, the Philadelphia Eagles complete the playoff field with the most explosive threat football, but their six game winning streak came to a screeching halt with an injury to center Jamaal Jackson which left more concerns with their interior linemen.
The AFC has less depth than the NFC and an overall weaker field. I have strong doubts about the “14-0 without playing Curtis Painter” Indianapolis Colts and feel that their holes in their pass defense still have yet to be fully exposed. The San Diego Chargers are the hottest team in the league, but they run a one dimensional offense and have a coach in his 12th year as a head coach who has one multiple playoff games exactly once. The injury depleted New England Patriots have lost the dominant defense and coaching edge to which fans grew accustomed last decade. The Cincinnati Bengals have probably the most balanced team on paper and a million reasons to win but must correct their passing woes from the end of the season. The surging New York Jets have rebounded from the brink of elimination at 4-6 and are bursting with confidence. Finally, my preseason pick to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, the Baltimore Ravens, are always a threat come playoff time.
The important thing to remember when the playoffs start is that ANYTHING can happen. The four teams to get a bye last season-including the Defending Super Bowl champions have been eliminated.
It’s time for playoff commercials- lots of them and overweight coaches making stupid challenges. It’s time for some 4th quarter plays that inspire fan bases, facebook statuses, and tweets galore. It’s playoff time.
To spice up my picks, I’m including a player on the team against whom I’m picking who can really change the game.
Regular Season
126-126 (30-36)
My collapse down the stretch mirrored the Giants on my freefall down to a .500 record on the year. Yeah, it was that bad… Anyways
4:30 pm
BENGALS -2 over Jets
Cin 10-6 (4-6) NYJ 7-9 (1-1)
The 23rd ranked team in ESPN’s Week 1 Rankings travels to Cincinnati to take on the 24th ranked team by the same rankings. Both teams are coached by former Baltimore defensive coordinators and feature USC quarterbacks handing the ball off to former Chicago Bears running backs. Two of the best defenses in football square off to open up the playoffs. The Jets are the more complete team. I think they’re good enough to get the upset with a healthy Kris Jenkins playing nose tackle. Rex Ryan has done a great job all season and looks to be a part of a second consecutive team to win a playoff game with a rookie QB and head coach. Then again, I do think his playoff itinerary that includes the Super Bowl parade is too similar to Jerry Jones. However, despite having a stronger offensive line, depth at Wide Receiver, an edge at tight end, and a big play threat in Brad Smith, the Jets bringing Mark Sanchez into Paul Brown stadium gives Cincinnati a big advantage. Carson Palmer has had has struggles but remains one of the best quarterbacks in football whereas Mark Sanchez has struggled in one of the most QB friendly systems in football. The Bengals need to keep pressure on Sanchez and should be able to do so to get the win.
X Factor: Braylon Edwards, Jets: Even though he has a reputation as being prone to dropping passes, Edwards gives the Jets a downfield threat that the Bengals lost with an injury to the late Chris Henry. This is Edwards’s first career playoff game. Expect him to rise to the occasion.
8:00 pm
Eagles +4 over COWBOYS
Phi 7-9 (0-4) Dal 9-7 (5-2)
Frankly, I see the Cowboys winning this game by 3 or 4. Dallas has the commanding edge at the line of scrimmage on offense and on defense. Their three-headed rushing attack should be one of the most dangerous in the league… and will be when the right plays are called. Dallas has multiple weapons at Wide Receiver plus Jason Witten. Also, David Buehler has done a remarkable job as kickoff specialist and will give Philly a long field all game. They’ve been hitting their stride and look really good right now. Even with all the injuries to Philadelphia, the Eagles are never more than one play away from scoring. Brian Westbrook is healthy, though it remains to be seen how effective he can be. Dallas will face quirky wildcat formations and be put to the test against McNabb, Jackson, and Michael Vick. Important stat of the game: Andy Reid is 7-0 in playoff openers, while Wade Phillips is 0-4. Again, all bets are off this year.
X Factor: Shaun Suisham, Cowboys: Suisham can make Jerry Jones a hero but can also turn him into a goat. Suisham has struggled throughout his career as a placekicker. Suisham NEEDS to connect today when Coach Phillips calls his number. Missed field goals kill teams in the playoffs between momentum, field possession, and the missed opportunity to add points. Suisham needs to do his job for Dallas this postseason.
1:00 pm
Ravens +3.5 over PATRIOTS
Bal 10-5 (4-3) NE 10-4 (5-0)
New England did beat Baltimore at home once before earlier in the year but doesn’t have the same team. Baltimore’s rushing attack will wear New England’s defense down and give the Ravens a huge advantage in a late close game. New England doesn’t have the consistency of Wes Welker anymore. Brady’s injuries also put New England in a very tricky situation. I don’t think Belichick has his edge anymore. I said it before the media starting saying it every week. Belichick has lost his edge. I think Baltimore is the better team, weather be damned.
X Factor: Benjamin Watson, Patriots: Welker’s injury changes the dynamic of New England’s offense. Julian Edelman will have to step up and catch a lot of short passes. Randy Moss must make big plays, but Baltimore will probably have him double covered. Fred Taylor’s return will be a nice shot in the arm for New England, but Baltimore’s defense leads the league by allowing only 3.4 yards per carry. It’s Watson who’ll have to step up and make plays in the middle. He’s the most underutilized weapon on the team and will have to step up for New England to advance.
4:40 pm
Packers -1.5 over CARDINALS
GB 6-10 (1-3) Ari 8-8 (5-3)
I mentioned that the Packers have a lot in common with the 2007 Giants. Let’s see. They secured the 5th seed despite being swept in a regular season series against the team who won their division. They have an inconsistent coach who has limited the team all season. They have an elite defense that has really come together down the stretch, including a Week 17 game in which they played their hearts out for no real consequence. Whenever the offense takes the field, their quarterback, through no fault of his own, is compared to one of the best players ever to play the game. The parallels exist, but they mean nothing. Arizona has gotten much better from one year ago but isn’t nearly as fresh as they were last season. Their run defense is by far the weakest of the twelve playoff teams, and they will pay for that. Green Bay should win this game pretty convincingly.
X Factor: Larry Fitzgerald, Adrian Wilson, Cardinals (tie): On offense, Fitzgerald is one of the few receivers who can take over a game on any given play. His work ethic and ability to make a play on the ball against any coverage gives the Cardinals a lot of flexibility. On the other side of the ball, Adrian Wilson has contributed to the defense on many levels. He rarely gets beat, is third on the team in tackles, and second on the team in interceptions. Wilson needs to have a big game to slow down Green Bay’s offense and give Arizona a chance to play their game.
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