What’s the worst part about going 4-10? For me, someone who takes so much pride in picking winners, it’s the flippant sarcastic remarks from friends and family so proud that my picks couldn’t beat their 20/20 hindsight. I’m not going to lie; last week got to me- so much to the point that I’d bet my friend Tim I’d miss no more than half of what I missed the week before, allowing myself only five incorrect picks in Week 5.
On Saturday, I spent 6 hours in Atlanta’s Hartsfield-Jackson airport and took off for New York with my Yahoo College Pick’em on track to get two out of the first six games correct. By the time I landed, I was 3-3 against the spread. I didn’t get another game wrong. My 14-3 against the spread record catapulted me into the 99th percentile and 8th overall in the state of Connecticut. It also cemented my lead of the group “Fans of Louisiana-Monroe,” the least competitive group I could find.
I wrote my picks last week at Sunday Morning, only about seven hours before planning to leave for the Giants game. Needless to say, this week I did a lot better. Let’s see how I did.
Vikings -10.5 over RAMS
I wouldn’t be surprised if Spagnuolo has a plan to shut down Adrian Peterson right away and give the Vikings trouble in the first half. The Vikings are a much better team though and can only be beaten by themselves in this game.
Peterson and Taylor had come into this game averaging roughly 4.5 yards per carry. Against the woeful Rams, they only averaged 3.7, almost a full yard short. The Vikings cruised to an easy win.
Bengals +8.5 over RAVENS
Palmer’s always done well playing against Baltimore. What about this year’s Bengals team gives any indication that will change? I’m expecting Baltimore to win the game but would be less surprised to see the Bengals win than to see the Ravens win by more than two touchdowns.
Right, right, right, right. I’m patting myself on the back right now.
Redskins +4.5 over PANTHERS
This is a battle of two underrated teams, more specifically two high-potential offenses that haven’t clicked this year. It’s a must-win for two playoff-caliber teams which means that we are going to see both teams looking the best they’ve looked all season. It’s a shame that this game is being played this week, both teams would have been really nice plays. This can go either way.
Though I didn’t watch the game, the Redskins showed up in the first half, but let the Panthers steal the game in the second half. Carolina should have gone for it on fourth and one in Washington territory in the first quarter. They need some big plays around which they can rally. Carolina has a very good running game and could’ve even taken a shot downfield. I really don’t like the ultraconservative play calls when you’re looking at 0-4. They made a better decision by going for the touchdown on a 4th and goal from the 1. Even though they didn’t get it, it led to points. These were two well-matched teams, held back from being great because they need to capitalize on their opportunities.
LIONS +11 over Steelers
I think Detroit is ready to play four quarters of good football against a good team. They got halfway there last week. I’m expecting either Culpepper or Stafford to lead Detroit to at least 20 points, but we’ll see if that’s enough. Also, I strongly caution anyone about taking the Steelers in a survival pool.
Detroit scored the 20 points I predicted and played to the level of the defending Super Bowl Champions. They picked up 3 more first downs than Pittsburgh (converting 11 on third down) and were only outgained by 9 yards on offense. Detroit held the ball longer than Pittsburgh, in two ways. The Lions were on offense for just over 32:30, but Culpepper took 7 sacks for 57 yards because he didn’t get rid of the ball on time. The Lions stood toe-to-toe with Pittsburgh but couldn’t score an offensive touchdown for 55 minutes. Almost, Lions.
CHIEFS +8 over Cowboys
I had the Cowboys penciled in here before remembering that I’d be betting on Tony Romo and Wade Phillips to arrive at Arrowhead Stadium and lay eight points against a team determined to finish their four game streak against the NFC East better than they started it. The Eagles and Giants each destroyed the Chiefs. The Cowboys can be as good as either of them but will not show up to play. Chiefs 24 Cowboys 17.
Bingo. Dallas wasn’t careful with the ball, fumbling four times. I’ve lost my confidence in Jason Garrett. Tashard Choice should’ve had twice as many carries. Even before they dealt Owens, Dallas was built around running the football effectively. It’s inconceivable to me that they’d limit their only healthy running back to eight carries against the Chiefs. Dallas would not have been able to get away with this one in any state outside of Missouri, even with Miles Austin’s 250 yards.
GIANTS -15.5 over Raiders
The two doubts crossing anyone’s mind leading up to this week should have been “Will Eli Manning continue the 2nd longest active NFL streak for starts with the same team?” and “Will Kevin Gilbride pull another backdoor cover out of nowhere?” There is no doubt in my mind that the Giants will have at least a 17 point lead at some point in this game. I trust Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw to run the clock out against Oakland’s defense. Rich Seubert is healthy again, and I personally am going to be giving JaMarcus Russell nightmares in my Osi Umenyiora jersey from the back of Section 107.
The final score really should have been 48-0. The Giants won this game from the time both teams took the field. If you recall in my New York Giants offense season preview, I wrote that the Giants have always misused Brandon Jacobs. I’m convinced I was right. Jacobs needs to become the finisher, as he was back when the offense still featured Tiki Barber. The Giants deserved the shutout and were robbed by poor officiating, but more on that later.
EAGLES -15.5 over Bucs
Even if Tampa Bay puts up a fight in the first half, the Eagles are bound to get some breaks and win this game with long plays.
Tampa Bay put up less of a fight against the Eagles in the first half than Terry McAuley’s crew. McNabb completed touchdown passes of 51, 20, and 40 yards. Tampa Bay ran 27 more plays than Philadelphia. Josh Johnson had an effective game but was responsible for turning the ball over four times in field goal range. The Bucs played the Eagles very well. There is improvement in Tampa Bay.
BILLS -6 over Browns
I wouldn’t be surprised if this turns into a statement game for either one of these teams. We’ll see if Anderson can turn this offense into anything like the 2007 success now that they’ve lost Braylon Edwards along with Kellen Winslow.
My only incorrect 1:00 game. The Bills played a better football game than the Browns. They outgained Cleveland by almost 100 yards and even with the no huddle offense. They were flat-out outcoached. Buffalo committed 10 more penalties, turned the ball over four more times (including missed fourth down conversions). Terrell Owens didn’t catch a ball in the second half. Buffalo picked the wrong fourth downs to go for it. It’s time to give J.P. Losman a second chance and try to salvage the season. Jauron has got to go. Not only has he now in his coaching career gone for a first down in the second quarter on a 4th and 24, he also called for a QB kneel on fourth down back when he was in Chicago. Mr. Wilson, your coach does not understand the sport. Fire him.
Falcons +3 over 49ERS
These are two teams that play the game the same way. I think Matt Ryan is going to rise to the occasion against a very good 49er defense. Michael Turner is due after resting on the bye week. I’m very interested to see what the 49ers do on offense in this game. However, I don’t think either team in this game is going to look as good as Washington and Carolina will look.
Ok, Atlanta looked really good. Ryan won the game for Atlanta by throwing for over 300 yards and posting a QB rating of 110 against what usually is one of the best defenses in football. As I thought, Turner had by far his best game to date by averaging almost a full yard per carry more than he’d averaged coming into the game and scoring three touchdowns, one more than his total in the three previous games. The Falcons are a very well coached team; I think Mike Mularkey is the best play-caller in football right now.
SEAHAWKS -2 over Jaguars
All things being equal, the Jaguars are a better team than Seattle. All things are not going to be equal. Matt Hasselbeck looks to go 2-0 in his return to the team.
If Hasselbeck does not play, however, my pick changes to
Seahawks -2 over Jaguars
Hasselbeck plays: Seattle Wins. Seneca Wallace doesn’t make me quite as secure.
What a return for Matt Hasselbeck. Game ball goes to Seattle’s run defense for shutting down Maurice Jones-Drew and thus silencing Jacksonville’s offense. Jacksonville was held to under 200 yards of total offense, just one week after accumulating 442. Jacksonville looked terrible in the last three quarters.
Texans +5.5 over CARDINALS
Considering Houston beat Tennessee on the road, and I rank the Titans higher than the Cardinals, I’ll stick it out this one with my Texans. They need to show up and win in Arizona. I’ll go out on a limb and say one more thing too.
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals OVER 50.5 (Overall Record will not include Over/Under picks). This game is going to come down to who can score touchdowns instead of field goals.
I wasn’t very comfortable with this pick from the beginning. To Houston’s credit (and my own credit by the transitive property of arrogant sports bettors), the Texans outgained the Cardinals in the air and on the ground, only to come up short by a yard. So many things could have gone differently. Don’t count Houston out yet.
Patriots -3.5 over BRONCOS
The toughest pick of the week. Brady’s always struggled against Denver. What about this year’s Broncos team gives any indication that will change? I really don’t know. New England is nowhere near as good as they have been. I’ll be the first to say that I think Bill Belichick is over the hill. I would be surprised, however, if he doesn’t have Josh McDaniels’s number during this game. My stomach cringes just a little less picking the Patriots to put Denver in the loss column than picking New England to look worse than anybody Denver has beaten so far. It’s midnight, Cinderella.
The Patriots experienced the type of meltdown that I’d never expected to see from a Bill Belichick team. I turned this game on when New England led 17-7 and knew I’d made the wrong pick. I still don’t think Denver is very good. Coach McDaniels has done a terrific job so far, and his celebration was thrilling to watch. New England did not look very good this week.
TITANS +4 over Colts
Peyton Manning is playing better than any other quarterback in football. I said it here. ESPN’s Adam Schefter said it here. I agree with a lot of the article- especially his seventh point which was my tenth prediction going into the season. My fun with hyperlinks aside, Jeff Fisher knows what Peyton Manning can do to his defense. He will not let that happen. It’s time for Indianapolis to come back to earth. Peyton can only do so much. What’s even more convincing, Bill Simmons is picking Indianapolis as his favorite play of the week. Tennessee 30 Indianapolis 13.
The loss of Albert Haynesworth really crippled Tennessee. Last year they were an overrated 13-3 team but a 13-3 team none-the-less. Last season they outgained opponents by a total of 320 yards. As a point of comparison, let’s look at the best teams over the past few years to not make the playoffs.
2008: New England Patriots +903 Dallas Cowboys +803
2007: Philadelphia Eagles +743 and in my opinion the best team in NFL history to not make the playoffs
2005: San Diego Chargers +619
The difference is last year, Tennessee had a turnover ratio of +14, this year, through five games, the Titans are at -5. Tennessee is not an explosive enough team to win with a negative turnover ratio.
Finally, I would like to concede that I was wrong about the AFC South. The Indianapolis Colts are the team to beat in the division (even though they are not a Top 5 team in football). I was wrong. I was wrong. I was wrong.
Jets -2 over DOLPHINS
The only sign not pointing to a blowout here is the history of Jets struggles in Miami. Still, the Jets have the advantage on both sides of the ball and should cruise to a blowout win. The better team has won in every game Al Riveron has refereed so far this season. The Jets will continue that trend.
I went against my gut in this game. The Jets played well. The Dolphins played to the absolute best of their ability. Coach Sparano and offensive coordinator Dan Henning really couldn’t have done any better of a job. Braylon Edwards makes the Jets much better, but the bailout pass interference call in the fourth quarter actually came back to bite the Jets in the back.
Much More Coming this week.
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