I went four for Four!

To My Readers,

I provided a truly awful set of picks for this week. I went 4-10, successfully predicting as many games as the week of this awfully short season. This record was so bad it equaled that of ESPN's Bill Simmons as he begins reverting back to his usual self. He tried to get people to buy into a Nobody Believed in Me Season in Week 3 and is now suffering the consequences.

Why did I mess up so badly this week?

1. Home Team Dominance

Including the point spread, road teams had outscored home teams so far this season by over 100 points leading into Week 4. I convinced myself to abandon my gut and side with the better team on the road. Home teams went 12-2 with the spread this week.

2. Arrogance and Pride

My insistence on trusting my preseason assessments and rationale over the individual weekly matchups. I'm off the mark on way too many teams, and that's why I've dropped back down to .500 on the season.

3. Expecting the Out of Nowheres

I think that speaks for itself.

Now for a few comments on each of my picks from last week.

Raiders +9 over TEXANS

Dead wrong. I didn't think Oakland had a snowball's chance in hell to beat Houston. Still, Houston had been destroyed by the Jets and upset by the Jaguars in Reliant Stadium. Against my better judgment, I decided to take the points.

Titans -3 over JAGUARS

Again, dead wrong. I'm a big fan of David Garrard, believing that he could easily be a Top 5 quarterback on a better team. Jacksonville is one of the most interesting 2-2 teams in the league. I feel they could've won the home game against Arizona 8 times out of 10. I made mistake #1 and picked the "better team" rather than the team I liked to win the game.

PATRIOTS -2 over Ravens

I am 4-0 in Patriots games this season and 3-0 in bold picks involving them. They are one of the teams I understand best. The Patriots will beat any team when the other team can apply more pressure than the other team can get on Tom Brady. This was one of my few correct games. Thanks officials.

BROWNS +6.5 over Bengals

Again, one of my correct picks. I figured 6.5 points would be too much for two teams who typically play each other so close. Had Quinn started, I'd have laid 11 with Cincy in a heartbeat.

Giants -9 over CHIEFS

The Giants are the team to beat in the NFL. Props to Gilbride for calling his best game of the year. The most interesting storyline for the Giants this weekend will be whether or not Eli extends his consecutive games streak in an easy win over Oakland.

Lions +10 over BEARS

Lions played a really good first half again. While I was right about the Lions being much better than last year, I was wrong about the ways in which they've improved. As we've seen this improvement in Detroit's offense, the Lions' Defense has gotten even worse. Detroit can only win games with some huge breaks on defense, such as dropped passes and takeaways. Props to Jay Cutler for adding so much to Chicago's offense.

REDSKINS -7 over Buccaneers

The Redskins turned a HUGE corner this weekend. The 10-0 halftime deficit reminded me of Week 3 of the 2007 regular season when the Redskins led the then 0-2 Giants 17-3. Before I knew it, the Giants were 6-2 going into a rematch against Dallas. That could be Washington this year. I still have faith in Zorn and offer three pieces of advice: Don't count out Washington. Don't count out Washington. Don't count out Washington.

Seahawks +10.5 over COLTS

Mistake #2. The Seahawks suck. I knew they wouldn't cover. I even said "I feel that either Seattle will beat Indianapolis or get blown out." Even though I'm two weeks away from my "I was wrong" column where I own up to all my preseason mistakes, I'm not ready to throw support behind the Colts. Manning's been great, but he will NOT be able to continue to be this good. To see them at the top of ESPN's Power Rankings makes me question Sando and Clayton's sanity.

SAINTS -7 over Jets

Two contenders. Two Top 10 teams. The Saints look really good this year, but the game wouldn't have gone the same way in the Meadowlands. 

Bills -1 over DOLPHINS

Stupid pick. Nothing left to say. Mistakes #1 and #2. The Bills will kill the Dolphins in Buffalo but this game was too obvious to pick incorrectly. The Bills couldn't execute and Chad Henne looked like Dan Marino.

Rams +10 over 49ERS

The 49ers had played to the level of their competition for the first three weeks, so I'd half-expected the same thing. Steve Spagnuolo is doing a nice job building the Rams' defense. If the Rams can figure out a way to get some resemblance of a balanced offense, they will be able to win a couple games in the division.

Cowboys -3 over BRONCOS

Mistake #1. Cowboys are the better team, but the Broncos showed up for this game. Jon Kitna would have won this game for Dallas. Romo has been nothing better than a product of the system throughout his career. Take away the big play receiver, and Dallas suddenly looks very average. Romo doesn't keep losing playoff games because he "can't win the big one." He's just in over his head.

Chargers +7 over STEELERS

Mistake #1 and Mistake #2 again. I actually genuinely thought the Chargers would win this game. My bad.

Packers +3.5 over VIKINGS

Mistake #2 especially on this one. I overlooked Minnesota in my season preview. I figured Chicago, Detroit, and Green Bay all improved from last year- which would leave the Vikings as they odd man out. What I forgot, the Vikings improved more than any of them. The Vikings are not going to win their first Super Bowl this year. I predicted Hutchinson to regress and am still comfortable with that prediction. Favre has made Bernard Berrian and Sidney Rice look like Pro Bowlers. Still, Brad Childress won't coach in the Super Bowl this year. Seriously.

Stay tuned this week for my new Power Rankings and my QB Power Rankings.