Last Week 9-6-1 (0-3)* 2 Losses by half a point. One bold pick failing to cover a 4.5 point spread after being up by 18. GRRRR
Season 116-106 (29-29)
Included is my record picking each team against the spread with my record picking them as a bold pick in parentheses.
DOLPHINS -3 over Texans
Mia 6-8 (3-3) Hou 7-6 (1-1)
Both teams have outside shots to make the playoffs heading into this showdown. Miami has two overwhelming advantages going into this game: the home crowd and the most lopsided coaching matchup we may have seen all season. While I know Houston will have success throwing on the Dolphins, I can’t imagine they sustain it for four quarters. Ricky Williams needs to hold onto the ball and Chad Henne needs to avoid costly mistakes such as last week’s overtime interception. If Houston takes an early lead, Miami still should be able to squeeze the game out late. If Miami takes an early lead, Houston’s playoff chances are done.
Ravens +3 over STEELERS Bal 10-4 (4-3) Pit 9-5 (1-0)
I’d like to give a well-done to the odds-makers who set last week’s Steelers’ line against Green Bay at -1.5. Hats off to both teams for tremendous performances in that game last week, most particularly to Ben Roethlisberger. This week, Pittsburgh again faces elimination against a Ravens team who’d love to avenge last years Conference Championship loss by knocking off the defending champs. Baltimore is coming off of a dismantling of Chicago and has their momentum back. Baltimore needs to center their offensive game plan around Ray Rice to give Pittsburgh a season record of 1-5 in the AFC North. The Ravens are the better team, especially with Pittsburgh’s injuries on defense. Play Baltimore.
BENGALS -13.5 over Chiefs Cin 10-4 (4-4) KC 9-5 (1-2)
The Bengals can’t look past Kansas City, a golden opportunity for them to clinch the AFC North. They played San Diego with a lot of emotion but couldn’t quite end San Diego’s winning streak. The Chiefs put up some points against Cleveland but face a much stiffer Bengals defense this week. On the other hand, Kansas City’s defense has really been terrible. Cedric Benson should wear down Kansas City and give Larry Johnson a chance for revenge against his former team. Cincinnati should have a lot of success on both sides of the ball; this game shouldn’t be close.
SAINTS -14 over Buccaneers NO 8-6 (0-2) TB 8-6 (0-2)
Congratulations to Tampa Bay for closing the Saints’ lead over them from 12 down to only 11 games last week. New Orleans will make it back this week. Tampa Bay’s pass defense is terrible; Brees should have a field day. Interesting note- New Orleans is 13-0 with Jeremy Shockey on the field and 0-1 without him. It’s hard to emphasize just how big of a role Shockey has played in the Saints’ success.
Jaguars +8.5 over PATRIOTS Jax 9-5 (2-0) NE 10-3 (5-0)
Congratulations to the Jaguars (at least on offense) for a well-fought game last week against Peyton Manning’s Colts. Unfortunately well-fought games aren’t quite enough to get them into the playoffs. This week, Jacksonville should have similar success on offense against a mediocre Patriots defense and should be able to muster some stops on defense after failing to get it done last week. The Patriots aren’t looking to get just a win against Jacksonville; they want a blowout with an exclamation point to give them momentum for the playoffs. I think Jacksonville gives them a lot of problems in this game and pulls of an upset to stay alive in the playoffs.
Raiders +3 over BROWNS Oak 10-4 (1-1) Cle 7-7 (0-1)
Expect Charlie Frye to succeed in making Cleveland pay for letting him go. The Browns should get another 100 yard day from Jerome Harrison, but if they’re defense is anywhere near as terrible as they were in Kansas City, then Oakland should win this game easily and secure another year for Tom Cable, especially if he can keep his hands to himself. Derek Anderson and Mohammad Massaquoi vs. Nnamdi Asomugha is a huge mismatch. The amazing thing about this game is oddsmakers are saying that they expect the Cleveland Browns to be on a three game winning streak after this game. I’m slightly less optimistic.
Seahawks +14 over PACKERS Sea 9-5 (2-0) GB 6-8 (1-2)
Oh goody, we’ve got ourselves a battle of the only two teams Tampa Bay has beaten this season. Seattle has played some really awful football over the past few weeks while the Packers can put themselves in position to clinch a playoff berth with a win. I think Seattle comes into this game with the same mentality that Green Bay had after their loss to the Bucs. I don’t think the Seahawks have quite given up on Jim Mora (even though he does not deserve to come back next season). Seattle has been slapped in the face by former coach Mike Holmgren and will come out flying against the Packers. I don’t have quite the chutzpah to pick Seattle to beat the Packers, but I doubt they’re willing to pack up yet. These guys are playing for their jobs. In a game where they can’t be eliminated for playoff contention, I think Green Bay disappoints, especially after last week’s heartbreaker.
GIANTS -7 over Panthers NYG 6-8 (1-3) Car 5-9 (2-2)
I find it very appropriate that John Fox squares off against his old team in the Giants’ last game at Giants’ Stadium. Big Blue put together a very impressive win against Washington last week- so impressive that even I was complimenting Kevin Gilbride for his play-calling. The Giants finally utilized Jacobs and Bradshaw correctly and involved their tight ends early and often. Defensively, the Giants finally succeeded in getting pressure from the middle which set everything else in the right direction. Especially if DeAngelo Williams can’t suit up, the Giants should get the double whammy in this game both by keeping their playoff hopes alive and by throwing some fire under the hot seat on which John Fox finds himself. The battle of Steve Smiths should be interesting, but there is a big difference between a Moore and a Manning. This is a huge game for the NFC playoff picture, and I will be one among a loud many at the stadium.
Bills +9 over FALCONS Buf 4-9 (1-2) Atl 7-7 (1-1)
Give the Falcons their credit for a tremendous defensive performance in a win against the Jets, even after being eliminated from playoff contention. The Falcons were one Braylon Edwards drop from shutting out a team that still can make the playoffs. Buffalo’s defense will be tested especially after losing Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate and team interception leader Paul Byrd. If the Bills can get any push out of their offensive line, I don’t think Atlanta will be able to dominate. The Falcons are the better team but probably won’t cover. This is probably my least confident pick this week (which of course probably means that it’s the only advice you should take).
Lions +13 over 49ERS Det 5-8 (0-2) SF 9-4 (4-2)
Drew Stanton gives Detroit its best chance to move the ball against a still underrated 49ers team. I still think San Francisco has a good team but am now ready to label Alex Smith a bust. I bet the Niners will rely too heavily on Frank Gore’s legs and let Detroit hang around. This won’t be a very good game.
CARDINALS -14.5 over Rams Ari 7-7 (5-3) Stl 8-6 (2-3)
The Rams are the worst team in football. Ndamakong Suh will start to turn their franchise around, but he isn’t there yet. Arizona will put up points in bursts and cover this one easily.
Jets +6 over COLTS NYJ 6-8 (1-0) Ind 4-10 (2-3)
If anyone can stop Peyton Manning (and I clearly believe someone can), it should be the top ranked defense in football. Manning has shown that he can thread tighter coverage than anyone in the league but has yet to face Darrelle Revis. The Jets need to upgrade their effort from last week on offense to give themselves a chance to stay alive in the hunt for the playoffs. Rex Ryan will have them motivated for this game. This will be a game of field possession. Take the points.
EAGLES -7 over Broncos Phi 7-7 (0-4) Den 3-11 (1-3)
Brian Dawkins returns to Philadelphia and should receive a standing ovation followed by a pounding from his former team. The best of the NFC East is too explosive for the Broncos. I don’t remember ever seeing two teams that started 5-0 (Denver and the New York Giants) so close to missing the playoffs. Unfortunately for Giants fans, this game will likely remove Philadelphia’s incentive to play hard against Dallas next week, especially after
REDSKINS +7 over Cowboys Was 4-10 (1-3) Dal 9-5 (5-1)
This is the classic buy low sell high game. Prior to last week’s collapse against the Giants, the Redskins have played hard long after being eliminated from playoff contention. This week, they face their archrivals who happen to be notoriously bad in December. Dallas couldn’t score until the very end the last time they faced Washington because they couldn’t get success running it up the middle. Unless Washington removes Albert Haynesworth from the field, Dallas will have their hands full as they try to hold onto their lead over the Giants. The Redskins would love a win against an NFC East team, and they should get one in their last chance. Don’t expect Washington to embarrass themselves two weeks in a row on prime time.
Vikings -7 over BEARS Min 5-9 (2-2) Chi 8-6 (1-0)
Having lost two of three, the Vikings face a Bears team that is playing for the already slim chances Coach Lovie Smith has of returning next year. Considering they’ve already given up on Jay Cutler, I’d be shocked if the Bears can put anything together. Cutler needs to be benched; he’s been terrible this season. Meanwhile, I think the Vikings should be able to rebound with a big game from Peterson and Brett Favre even more fluently than the media can create a story around Favre and his problems. The Vikings had their wake-up call last week and won’t let their chances at a bye slip away just yet.
Playoff Seedings
AFC
Ind
SD
Cin
Mia
Bal
Jax
NFC
NO
Phi
Min
Ari
GB
NYG
Saturday, December 26, 2009
Thursday, December 24, 2009
Thursday Night Quickpick
Chargers +3 over TITANS
SD 8-6 (2-1) Ten 7-7 (1-2)
What a backdoor cover by Miami last week. In any case, I think the Chargers are the better team and the Titans are already close to being eliminated, purely based on tiebreakers. San Diego is playing terrific football; they should be able to slow down Chris Johnson. Vegas lists this teams as even. San Diego is better.
SD 8-6 (2-1) Ten 7-7 (1-2)
What a backdoor cover by Miami last week. In any case, I think the Chargers are the better team and the Titans are already close to being eliminated, purely based on tiebreakers. San Diego is playing terrific football; they should be able to slow down Chris Johnson. Vegas lists this teams as even. San Diego is better.
Monday, December 21, 2009
The Playoff Chances of the Giants
Big, Blue, and Breathing
While the Cowboys’ upset over the Saints pointed to what many Giants fans believed was the final nail in a well-earned coffin, a win over Washington will put the Giants in a better position to make the playoffs than a quick glance at the standings would lead one to think. Even though Philadelphia held serve with a win against the 49ers to eliminate the Giants from contention for the NFC East, the Giants remain poised to snag a Wild Card spot as the 6th or possibly even the 5th seed.
It remains impossible for the Giants to catch up to New Orleans or Minnesota; even if the Giants do win out, they’ll only reach ten wins. Arizona also has clinched a higher seed than the Giants, having clinched the weak NFC West. This leaves the Giants jostling for playoff position with Dallas and Green Bay.
The playoffs are seeded from the division winner with the best record down to the division winner with the fourth best record. Since the addition of the Houston Texans to the NFL, that leaves room for only two Wild Card teams. In the NFC, those teams will be some combination of two out of the following four teams: Philadelphia, Dallas, Green Bay, and New York- with either Dallas or Philadelphia winning the NFC East. Going into the Monday Night showdown between New York and Washington, the Eagles are 10-4 with an upcoming home game against Denver and season finale in Dallas, the Packers are 9-5 with an upcoming home game against Seattle and season finale in Arizona, the Cowboys are 9-5 with two intradivision games remaining- on the road against a Redskins team on short rest and then finally hosting Philadelphia, and the Giants are 7-6 with tonight’s game in Washington, the last game they’ll play at Giants’ Stadium the week after (barring extraordinary circumstances), and then a road game in Minnesota. There’s a lot of football left.
NFL Wild Card Tiebreaking Procedures are sorted as follows:
1. Head to Head Record
2. Record in games played within Conference
3. Record in Common Games
Several other qualifiers are listed to break ties after the three steps listed above, but none will factor into the NFC this year. In head to head games so far this season, Dallas has beaten Philadelphia but lost once to Green Bay and twice to New York. This means that while the Cowboys control their own destiny within the division, they will lose any Wild Card tiebreaker and are one loss away from needing help to qualify for the playoffs.
Next, we look at Green Bay in comparison to New York. The teams have not played and both finished 2-2 against the AFC which means should the teams have an identical record in their 12 games within the NFC, it comes down to a record in games against opponents they have both faced: Minnesota, Arizona, Dallas, and Tampa Bay. The Giants have yet to face Minnesota but have two wins over Dallas and one over Tampa Bay. The Packers have yet to face Arizona but have a win over Dallas and three losses against these opponents; Brett Favre and the Vikings beat Green Bay twice while Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers won their only game before yesterday against Green Bay. This means that with a 3-1 record against common opponents, the Giants have clinched tiebreakers over the Packers who are 1-3 against the same teams.
For simplicity’s sake, I’m assuming that no remaining game will end in a tie. If you’re genuinely wondering what will happen if at least two of the eight games I listed above do end in ties, just leave a comment below and I’ll humor you. That said, here is every potential win/loss outcome of the above games and the consequences for the Giants in the playoff picture. All games unless otherwise specified are interchangeable.
I. New York wins anything fewer than two of three remaining games
A. New York is eliminated
II. New York wins 2 games and loses 1
A. New York qualifies for the 5th seed IF
1. Dallas and Green Bay both lose remaining games to finish in a three way tie at 9-7 (Green Bay would get the 6th seed)
B. New York qualifies for the 6th seed IF
1. Dallas loses both remaining games AND Green Bay does not OR
2. Green Bay loses both remaining games AND Dallas does not
C. New York is eliminated IF neither Dallas nor Green Bay loses both remaining games
III. New York wins all 3 remaining games
A. New York qualifies for 5th seed IF
1. Green Bay loses at least one game AND
a) Dallas loses to Philadelphia OR
b) Dallas loses to Washington AND Philadelphia beats Denver
B. New York qualifies for 6th seed IF
1. Green Bay loses either game AND
a) Dallas does not lose either game OR
b) Philadelphia loses to Denver and Dallas
2. Dallas loses either game AND Green Bay does not
C. New York is eliminated IF Dallas and Green Bay win both remaining games
Notes: Should New York win out, Philadelphia lose out, and Washington upset Dallas: the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles will all finish 10-6 atop the NFC East. Dallas’s 3-3 record eliminates them from NFC East contention which gives Philadelphia the division based on a head to head sweep of New York (New York and Philadelphia are 4-2). Otherwise, a two team tie between Dallas and Philadelphia will give Dallas the division based on a better head to head record (if Philadelphia beats Dallas to have an even head to head record, Dallas will have no chance at tying Philadelphia). Finally, the Week 16 showdown between Carolina and New York will be the last game the Giants play at Giants stadium unless Big Blue secures the 5th seed and no home team wins in any of the four games before the Conference Championship game. There is an outside chance that New York will host the NFC Championship game.
Finally, returning to my subjective standpoint- Green Bay is a near lock to beat Seattle next week which puts the Giants in a tricky situation. Assuming Arizona can rest their starters and guarantee they play Green Bay (probably the weakest of the teams still in Wild Card contention) in a rematch with real consequences the next week. By the Cardinals/Packers kickoff (4:15 Eastern), the playoff picture will look very clear.
There’s a lot of good football left. Go Giants!
While the Cowboys’ upset over the Saints pointed to what many Giants fans believed was the final nail in a well-earned coffin, a win over Washington will put the Giants in a better position to make the playoffs than a quick glance at the standings would lead one to think. Even though Philadelphia held serve with a win against the 49ers to eliminate the Giants from contention for the NFC East, the Giants remain poised to snag a Wild Card spot as the 6th or possibly even the 5th seed.
It remains impossible for the Giants to catch up to New Orleans or Minnesota; even if the Giants do win out, they’ll only reach ten wins. Arizona also has clinched a higher seed than the Giants, having clinched the weak NFC West. This leaves the Giants jostling for playoff position with Dallas and Green Bay.
The playoffs are seeded from the division winner with the best record down to the division winner with the fourth best record. Since the addition of the Houston Texans to the NFL, that leaves room for only two Wild Card teams. In the NFC, those teams will be some combination of two out of the following four teams: Philadelphia, Dallas, Green Bay, and New York- with either Dallas or Philadelphia winning the NFC East. Going into the Monday Night showdown between New York and Washington, the Eagles are 10-4 with an upcoming home game against Denver and season finale in Dallas, the Packers are 9-5 with an upcoming home game against Seattle and season finale in Arizona, the Cowboys are 9-5 with two intradivision games remaining- on the road against a Redskins team on short rest and then finally hosting Philadelphia, and the Giants are 7-6 with tonight’s game in Washington, the last game they’ll play at Giants’ Stadium the week after (barring extraordinary circumstances), and then a road game in Minnesota. There’s a lot of football left.
NFL Wild Card Tiebreaking Procedures are sorted as follows:
1. Head to Head Record
2. Record in games played within Conference
3. Record in Common Games
Several other qualifiers are listed to break ties after the three steps listed above, but none will factor into the NFC this year. In head to head games so far this season, Dallas has beaten Philadelphia but lost once to Green Bay and twice to New York. This means that while the Cowboys control their own destiny within the division, they will lose any Wild Card tiebreaker and are one loss away from needing help to qualify for the playoffs.
Next, we look at Green Bay in comparison to New York. The teams have not played and both finished 2-2 against the AFC which means should the teams have an identical record in their 12 games within the NFC, it comes down to a record in games against opponents they have both faced: Minnesota, Arizona, Dallas, and Tampa Bay. The Giants have yet to face Minnesota but have two wins over Dallas and one over Tampa Bay. The Packers have yet to face Arizona but have a win over Dallas and three losses against these opponents; Brett Favre and the Vikings beat Green Bay twice while Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers won their only game before yesterday against Green Bay. This means that with a 3-1 record against common opponents, the Giants have clinched tiebreakers over the Packers who are 1-3 against the same teams.
For simplicity’s sake, I’m assuming that no remaining game will end in a tie. If you’re genuinely wondering what will happen if at least two of the eight games I listed above do end in ties, just leave a comment below and I’ll humor you. That said, here is every potential win/loss outcome of the above games and the consequences for the Giants in the playoff picture. All games unless otherwise specified are interchangeable.
I. New York wins anything fewer than two of three remaining games
A. New York is eliminated
II. New York wins 2 games and loses 1
A. New York qualifies for the 5th seed IF
1. Dallas and Green Bay both lose remaining games to finish in a three way tie at 9-7 (Green Bay would get the 6th seed)
B. New York qualifies for the 6th seed IF
1. Dallas loses both remaining games AND Green Bay does not OR
2. Green Bay loses both remaining games AND Dallas does not
C. New York is eliminated IF neither Dallas nor Green Bay loses both remaining games
III. New York wins all 3 remaining games
A. New York qualifies for 5th seed IF
1. Green Bay loses at least one game AND
a) Dallas loses to Philadelphia OR
b) Dallas loses to Washington AND Philadelphia beats Denver
B. New York qualifies for 6th seed IF
1. Green Bay loses either game AND
a) Dallas does not lose either game OR
b) Philadelphia loses to Denver and Dallas
2. Dallas loses either game AND Green Bay does not
C. New York is eliminated IF Dallas and Green Bay win both remaining games
Notes: Should New York win out, Philadelphia lose out, and Washington upset Dallas: the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles will all finish 10-6 atop the NFC East. Dallas’s 3-3 record eliminates them from NFC East contention which gives Philadelphia the division based on a head to head sweep of New York (New York and Philadelphia are 4-2). Otherwise, a two team tie between Dallas and Philadelphia will give Dallas the division based on a better head to head record (if Philadelphia beats Dallas to have an even head to head record, Dallas will have no chance at tying Philadelphia). Finally, the Week 16 showdown between Carolina and New York will be the last game the Giants play at Giants stadium unless Big Blue secures the 5th seed and no home team wins in any of the four games before the Conference Championship game. There is an outside chance that New York will host the NFC Championship game.
Finally, returning to my subjective standpoint- Green Bay is a near lock to beat Seattle next week which puts the Giants in a tricky situation. Assuming Arizona can rest their starters and guarantee they play Green Bay (probably the weakest of the teams still in Wild Card contention) in a rematch with real consequences the next week. By the Cardinals/Packers kickoff (4:15 Eastern), the playoff picture will look very clear.
There’s a lot of good football left. Go Giants!
Saturday, December 19, 2009
Picks and Playoff Projections:
CHIEFS -2 over Browns
KC 9-4 (1-1) Cle 7-6 (0-0)
The Chiefs are too good in late season games at Arrowhead. I think Todd Haley is a much better coach in-the-moment than Eric Mangini. The Browns lost a lot of push in their run defense with Shaun Rogers’s injury. I feel that the Chiefs will show flashes of the brilliance that awaits them down the road this week. Play Kansas City with any spread lower than 4-4.5.
RAVENS -10.5 over Bears
Chi 7-6 (1-0) Bal 9-4 (4-3)
I have trouble laying over ten points in this game, partially because I think Chicago will score early. That said, Baltimore ran the ball extremely well against Detroit and likely has figured out their recipe for success. Ray Rice should wear the Bears out and put Baltimore in position to pile on points late in the game. The Ravens are in prime position to put together a run to make the playoffs and make a lot of noise in a weak AFC field come January.
BILLS +7 over Patriots
Buf 4-9 (1-2) NE 10-3 (5-0)
New England is 1-5 against the spread since their Week 7 throttling of Tampa Bay in England earlier this year. Given that Miami faces a tough test this week in stopping Chris Johnson and the new-look Tennessee Titans, New England knows what’s at stake in a divisional game they should win. The Bills matched up very well against New England the last time these teams squared off, Week 1 at Gillette. The Bills have made progress since then while the Patriots have regressed. The Patriots will show up ready to make a statement but will struggle to respond if and when Buffalo catches some breaks. Lee Evans should break out for a huge game in this one.
LIONS +14 over Cardinals
Det 4-8 (0-2) Ari 6-7 (5-3)
I’d like to get a show of hands from everyone who still has any doubt as to the validity of the Madden Curse. Polamalu, Fitzgerald, Favre (and Green Bay last year even in his absence), Vince Young… YOU CAN’T MAKE THIS STUFF UP. I’m taking the points in this game- because I still don’t see Arizona as a 2 touchdown favorite, against anybody. Cards should win by 3-7, courtesy of a garbage time score.
Falcons +7 over JETS
Atl 6-7 (1-1) NYJ 5-8 (1-0)
Four weeks ago, Rex Ryan and his tear-stained speeches were providing me excuse after excuse to make fun of the Jets- as they insisted they’d been disrespected. Four weeks ago, the Falcons were gearing up for an eventual overtime thriller with huge Wild Card implications in the NFC, especially considering tiebreakers. Only a couple QB injuries later, the Jets have a legitimate shot at the final AFC Wild Card spot, and possibly even the AFC East while the Falcons are all but eliminated and doomed for yet another failure to follow up an over .500 season with similar success. Clemens gives the Jets their best chance to win; Ryan gives the Falcons their only chance to win. Neither of these teams have sustained their early season success- just how well these teams play down the stretch is largely a testament to their coaches. Falcons should rush for 200 yards in a win.
49ers +8 over EAGLES
SF 9-3 (4-1) Phi 7-6 (0-3)
In one of the best games we’ve been treated to so far this season, the Eagles scraped a win over the Giants with lots of help. Their defense put forth a really lackluster performance, bailed out by some key turnovers and the disappearing act Bill Sheridan pulled on what was once arguably the most feared defense in the league. San Francisco’s secondary is better than New York’s. Philadelphia should have a lot of trouble moving the ball on the 49ers while the 49ers are coming off a great offensive performance against the Cardinals. Biases aside, this is my upset pick of the week. San Francisco is going to be a contender next season, and they should be a fun team to watch play spoiler as this season concludes.
RAMS +14 over Texans
Hou 6-6 (1-1) Stl 7-6 (2-3)
Yes the Texans have more talent, especially on offense, than at least half of the AFC postseason field, but their season is essentially over, their coach is essentially fired, and they are coming into a game against a St. Louis team determined to give their fans one home win this season. 14 points? I have to take the Rams in this one.
TITANS -4.5 over Dolphins
Ten 7-6 (1-1) Mia 6-7 (3-2)
With some help from the right places, both of these teams still have a shot to qualify for the playoffs. This pick comes down to Tennessee’s ability to run the football and my doubts as to whether Miami will be able to come up with an answer for Chris Johnson. Without taking anything away from Chad Henne and the success that Tony Sparano has had with a really mediocre roster (especially after Ronnie Brown went down), Tennessee has too much firepower for Miami to keep pace. The Titans should win this one handily.
Raiders +14 over BRONCOS
Oak 9-4 (1-1) Den 2-11 (1-3)
A change of home field and twelve points of movement in the point spread aren’t the only difference between this game and the beat down Denver handed the Raiders in Week 3. Charlie Frye is a gritty quarterback who never got a fair shot in Cleveland or Seattle. I think he’ll fill in well for the injured Bruce Gradkowski. Despite my apprehension of picking anybody who needs someone to “fill in well for the injured Bruce Gradkowski,” I need to remember this is 2009. Kyle Orton is leading his team to the playoffs, Ryan Fitzpatrick is the savior in Buffalo, and Charlie Frye is going to cover the spread against Denver.
Bengals +7 over CHARGERS
Cin 9-4 (4-4) SD 7-6 (2-1)
Oh, how I wish this game was played six weeks ago- when the Bengals were the flavor of the week and the Chargers were the team that all the experts overestimated. Cincy is losing believers, but will be playing with emotion after losing Chris Henry this past week. Marvin Lewis is the right coach for a situation like this and should have the Bengals ready to put San Diego to the test.
STEELERS -1.5 over Packers
Pit 9-4 (1-0) GB 6-7 (1-2)
The Packers are taking a five game winning streak to Pittsburgh and trying to see if both their streak and the Steelers’ five game losing streak can survive the weekend. Even in their slump, Pittsburgh has played reasonably well at home, losing only by 6 to the Bengals and by 3 to an uncharacteristically crisp Raiders team. Losing to the Raiders, Chiefs, and Browns has sort of removed the bullseye from the Steelers- which should play to their advantage. While Mike Tomlin is not in jeopardy of losing his job, he could absolutely use a win to quiet down the doubters. The Packers are overrated, especially in this winning streak and will not do 9 or more points better than the Vikings did in Heinz Field.
Buccaneers +7 over SEAHAWKS
TB 7-6 (0-2) Sea 8-5 (2-0)
No, I swear I don’t have an aversion to taking 7 point favorites. The Seahawks are a terrible road team and a much better home team. But, Josh Freeman should have a good game and give the fans a W while giving Steve Spagnuolo a chance to get Ndamukong Suh and build around him. Bucs win this in an “upset”.
Vikings -9 over PANTHERS
Car 5-8 (3-1) Min 5-8 (2-2)
I took the Panthers when I penciled this pick in but am coming up empty with reasons as to why they should win. Their rushing game should be slowed to a halt by Minnesota’s “Williams Wall” and their passing game shouldn’t do all that much better. As a Giants fan, my desire to see Panthers Coach John Fox fired and thus eligible to come back to the Giants as a defensive coordinator (or maybe Head Coach, but I’m not going to get too hopeful) outweighs my concerns that the Vikings will play hard Week 17 to have a shot at home field. Let’s see how the Panthers can stop the Vikings’ offense.
Giants -2.5 over REDSKINS
NYG 5-8 (1-3) Was 3-10 (1-3)
The key to this game will be how well an injured Rich Seubert can hold off Albert Haynesworth. Seubert has the heart of a lion. I can’t doubt him now. Now or Never G-Men, Now or Never.
Projections for Playoff Seedings as of 12:00 am 12/20/09:
AFC
1. Colts
2. Bengals
3. Chargers
4. Dolphins
5. Ravens
6. Broncos
Ravens over Colts
Chargers over Bengals
NFC
1. Saints
2. Vikings
3. Eagles
4. Cardinals
5. Packers
6. Giants
Giants over Saints (Yes I know. Yes I know.)*
Vikings over Packers
SB: Vikings 27 Chargers 13
*- I think the Giants have a realistic chance of winning out and hoping that either Washington or Philly (or both) thwarts Dallas. Is it really that impossible for the Giants to do that and then beat a Philadelphia team they outplayed last week?**
**- To any person superstitious and downright nutty enough to be compared to myself, I assure you that I knocked on wood after writing all of that.
KC 9-4 (1-1) Cle 7-6 (0-0)
The Chiefs are too good in late season games at Arrowhead. I think Todd Haley is a much better coach in-the-moment than Eric Mangini. The Browns lost a lot of push in their run defense with Shaun Rogers’s injury. I feel that the Chiefs will show flashes of the brilliance that awaits them down the road this week. Play Kansas City with any spread lower than 4-4.5.
RAVENS -10.5 over Bears
Chi 7-6 (1-0) Bal 9-4 (4-3)
I have trouble laying over ten points in this game, partially because I think Chicago will score early. That said, Baltimore ran the ball extremely well against Detroit and likely has figured out their recipe for success. Ray Rice should wear the Bears out and put Baltimore in position to pile on points late in the game. The Ravens are in prime position to put together a run to make the playoffs and make a lot of noise in a weak AFC field come January.
BILLS +7 over Patriots
Buf 4-9 (1-2) NE 10-3 (5-0)
New England is 1-5 against the spread since their Week 7 throttling of Tampa Bay in England earlier this year. Given that Miami faces a tough test this week in stopping Chris Johnson and the new-look Tennessee Titans, New England knows what’s at stake in a divisional game they should win. The Bills matched up very well against New England the last time these teams squared off, Week 1 at Gillette. The Bills have made progress since then while the Patriots have regressed. The Patriots will show up ready to make a statement but will struggle to respond if and when Buffalo catches some breaks. Lee Evans should break out for a huge game in this one.
LIONS +14 over Cardinals
Det 4-8 (0-2) Ari 6-7 (5-3)
I’d like to get a show of hands from everyone who still has any doubt as to the validity of the Madden Curse. Polamalu, Fitzgerald, Favre (and Green Bay last year even in his absence), Vince Young… YOU CAN’T MAKE THIS STUFF UP. I’m taking the points in this game- because I still don’t see Arizona as a 2 touchdown favorite, against anybody. Cards should win by 3-7, courtesy of a garbage time score.
Falcons +7 over JETS
Atl 6-7 (1-1) NYJ 5-8 (1-0)
Four weeks ago, Rex Ryan and his tear-stained speeches were providing me excuse after excuse to make fun of the Jets- as they insisted they’d been disrespected. Four weeks ago, the Falcons were gearing up for an eventual overtime thriller with huge Wild Card implications in the NFC, especially considering tiebreakers. Only a couple QB injuries later, the Jets have a legitimate shot at the final AFC Wild Card spot, and possibly even the AFC East while the Falcons are all but eliminated and doomed for yet another failure to follow up an over .500 season with similar success. Clemens gives the Jets their best chance to win; Ryan gives the Falcons their only chance to win. Neither of these teams have sustained their early season success- just how well these teams play down the stretch is largely a testament to their coaches. Falcons should rush for 200 yards in a win.
49ers +8 over EAGLES
SF 9-3 (4-1) Phi 7-6 (0-3)
In one of the best games we’ve been treated to so far this season, the Eagles scraped a win over the Giants with lots of help. Their defense put forth a really lackluster performance, bailed out by some key turnovers and the disappearing act Bill Sheridan pulled on what was once arguably the most feared defense in the league. San Francisco’s secondary is better than New York’s. Philadelphia should have a lot of trouble moving the ball on the 49ers while the 49ers are coming off a great offensive performance against the Cardinals. Biases aside, this is my upset pick of the week. San Francisco is going to be a contender next season, and they should be a fun team to watch play spoiler as this season concludes.
RAMS +14 over Texans
Hou 6-6 (1-1) Stl 7-6 (2-3)
Yes the Texans have more talent, especially on offense, than at least half of the AFC postseason field, but their season is essentially over, their coach is essentially fired, and they are coming into a game against a St. Louis team determined to give their fans one home win this season. 14 points? I have to take the Rams in this one.
TITANS -4.5 over Dolphins
Ten 7-6 (1-1) Mia 6-7 (3-2)
With some help from the right places, both of these teams still have a shot to qualify for the playoffs. This pick comes down to Tennessee’s ability to run the football and my doubts as to whether Miami will be able to come up with an answer for Chris Johnson. Without taking anything away from Chad Henne and the success that Tony Sparano has had with a really mediocre roster (especially after Ronnie Brown went down), Tennessee has too much firepower for Miami to keep pace. The Titans should win this one handily.
Raiders +14 over BRONCOS
Oak 9-4 (1-1) Den 2-11 (1-3)
A change of home field and twelve points of movement in the point spread aren’t the only difference between this game and the beat down Denver handed the Raiders in Week 3. Charlie Frye is a gritty quarterback who never got a fair shot in Cleveland or Seattle. I think he’ll fill in well for the injured Bruce Gradkowski. Despite my apprehension of picking anybody who needs someone to “fill in well for the injured Bruce Gradkowski,” I need to remember this is 2009. Kyle Orton is leading his team to the playoffs, Ryan Fitzpatrick is the savior in Buffalo, and Charlie Frye is going to cover the spread against Denver.
Bengals +7 over CHARGERS
Cin 9-4 (4-4) SD 7-6 (2-1)
Oh, how I wish this game was played six weeks ago- when the Bengals were the flavor of the week and the Chargers were the team that all the experts overestimated. Cincy is losing believers, but will be playing with emotion after losing Chris Henry this past week. Marvin Lewis is the right coach for a situation like this and should have the Bengals ready to put San Diego to the test.
STEELERS -1.5 over Packers
Pit 9-4 (1-0) GB 6-7 (1-2)
The Packers are taking a five game winning streak to Pittsburgh and trying to see if both their streak and the Steelers’ five game losing streak can survive the weekend. Even in their slump, Pittsburgh has played reasonably well at home, losing only by 6 to the Bengals and by 3 to an uncharacteristically crisp Raiders team. Losing to the Raiders, Chiefs, and Browns has sort of removed the bullseye from the Steelers- which should play to their advantage. While Mike Tomlin is not in jeopardy of losing his job, he could absolutely use a win to quiet down the doubters. The Packers are overrated, especially in this winning streak and will not do 9 or more points better than the Vikings did in Heinz Field.
Buccaneers +7 over SEAHAWKS
TB 7-6 (0-2) Sea 8-5 (2-0)
No, I swear I don’t have an aversion to taking 7 point favorites. The Seahawks are a terrible road team and a much better home team. But, Josh Freeman should have a good game and give the fans a W while giving Steve Spagnuolo a chance to get Ndamukong Suh and build around him. Bucs win this in an “upset”.
Vikings -9 over PANTHERS
Car 5-8 (3-1) Min 5-8 (2-2)
I took the Panthers when I penciled this pick in but am coming up empty with reasons as to why they should win. Their rushing game should be slowed to a halt by Minnesota’s “Williams Wall” and their passing game shouldn’t do all that much better. As a Giants fan, my desire to see Panthers Coach John Fox fired and thus eligible to come back to the Giants as a defensive coordinator (or maybe Head Coach, but I’m not going to get too hopeful) outweighs my concerns that the Vikings will play hard Week 17 to have a shot at home field. Let’s see how the Panthers can stop the Vikings’ offense.
Giants -2.5 over REDSKINS
NYG 5-8 (1-3) Was 3-10 (1-3)
The key to this game will be how well an injured Rich Seubert can hold off Albert Haynesworth. Seubert has the heart of a lion. I can’t doubt him now. Now or Never G-Men, Now or Never.
Projections for Playoff Seedings as of 12:00 am 12/20/09:
AFC
1. Colts
2. Bengals
3. Chargers
4. Dolphins
5. Ravens
6. Broncos
Ravens over Colts
Chargers over Bengals
NFC
1. Saints
2. Vikings
3. Eagles
4. Cardinals
5. Packers
6. Giants
Giants over Saints (Yes I know. Yes I know.)*
Vikings over Packers
SB: Vikings 27 Chargers 13
*- I think the Giants have a realistic chance of winning out and hoping that either Washington or Philly (or both) thwarts Dallas. Is it really that impossible for the Giants to do that and then beat a Philadelphia team they outplayed last week?**
**- To any person superstitious and downright nutty enough to be compared to myself, I assure you that I knocked on wood after writing all of that.
Saturday Night Pick
Season to date stats listed as Total Record with bold picks in parentheses.
This Week: 0-1
Season: 106-101 (29-26)
Cowboys +8 over SAINTS
Dal 8-5 (5-1) NO 7-6 (0-2)
The Saints will face a real challenge tonight in stopping the Cowboys’ rushing attack. The Saints are going to be able to score points through the air in this game. The key for Dallas will be not putting their fate in Tony Romo’s hands too soon. I suspect the Saints will not be able to stop a balanced Dallas rushing attack but have seen Jason Garrett get away from the run too soon before. Barring coaching blunders, Dallas should be able to keep this close and maybe end the Saints’ run at perfection.
6:04 pm update: Jeremy Shockey as a scratch is a huge loss for the Saints. This affords flexibility for Dallas to double cover Colston or bring an extra pass-rusher. Dallas will have every chance to win this one.
This Week: 0-1
Season: 106-101 (29-26)
Cowboys +8 over SAINTS
Dal 8-5 (5-1) NO 7-6 (0-2)
The Saints will face a real challenge tonight in stopping the Cowboys’ rushing attack. The Saints are going to be able to score points through the air in this game. The key for Dallas will be not putting their fate in Tony Romo’s hands too soon. I suspect the Saints will not be able to stop a balanced Dallas rushing attack but have seen Jason Garrett get away from the run too soon before. Barring coaching blunders, Dallas should be able to keep this close and maybe end the Saints’ run at perfection.
6:04 pm update: Jeremy Shockey as a scratch is a huge loss for the Saints. This affords flexibility for Dallas to double cover Colston or bring an extra pass-rusher. Dallas will have every chance to win this one.
Thursday, December 17, 2009
The Somewhat Overdue, Long Awaited, Alisberg Colts-Hating Quick Pick
Last Week: 7-9 Overall 1-3 Bold
Season: 106-100 Overall 29-26 Bold
Colts Games*: 4-9 Overall 2-3 Bold
Jaguars Games: 9-4 Overall 2-0 Bold
*- Stats list my Ravens Colts (bold) pick as incorrect despite me winning the best I'd placed on Baltimore after the line moved to 3... Sigh
Thursday Night Pick:
JAGUARS +3.5 over Colts
This pick comes down to a few factors.
A) I will not let myself pick the Colts on the night of their first loss of the season... Do I see it coming tonight? Well, I honestly see the Colts pulling out the 3 point squeaker. They're still not nearly as good as their record indicates (while admittedly not nearly as bad as my preseason forecast indicated). There's a reason that Vegas is giving such a small spread in a game against arguably the worst team in the AFC South that has achieved .500 results against a very soft schedule. Still, Jacksonville does have playmakers.
B) Nobody's played really well on Thursday Night in a while... Nobody. Pittsburgh didn't play well against Cleveland (who remains incapable of playing well ever). The Giants laid an egg against the Broncos (who accumulated almost as much yardage through false starts as the Giants allowed DeSean Jackson to gain in their subsequent game everytime he touched the ball). Before that, the Bills, Jets and 49ers looked bad. And to say the Bears were anything but terrible would be just wrong. What's my point? In sloppy slugfests- take the crowd and the points.
C) The Colts will have to compensate for their holes in their secondary by giving up some push at the line of scrimmage. In their Week 1 14-12 victory over Jacksonville, David Garrard couldn't quite turn the game around because he had been under pressure. Since then, Jacksonville has learned both pass protection and that getting Maurice Jones-Drew the ball really can pay off. The Jaguars should be able to put up points against a spotty Colts' D. Manning will have to have another gem to match them.
D) This game will come down to the fingertips of Colts' Wide Receivers and Dallas Clark. If Clark can continue to be as consistent catching the ball as he's been in recent games and Manning can keep himself in a rhythm with confidence that receivers won't be dropping easy passes, the Colts will be a very difficult offense to stop. This being a Thursday Night game, I hesitate to say the Colts achieve this... but you know I'm a doubter.
E) Because I'm an arrogant prick who wants nothing more than to look at this post Friday Morning, smile, and say "I told you so"
The Pick: Jags 27 Colts 20
Season: 106-100 Overall 29-26 Bold
Colts Games*: 4-9 Overall 2-3 Bold
Jaguars Games: 9-4 Overall 2-0 Bold
*- Stats list my Ravens Colts (bold) pick as incorrect despite me winning the best I'd placed on Baltimore after the line moved to 3... Sigh
Thursday Night Pick:
JAGUARS +3.5 over Colts
This pick comes down to a few factors.
A) I will not let myself pick the Colts on the night of their first loss of the season... Do I see it coming tonight? Well, I honestly see the Colts pulling out the 3 point squeaker. They're still not nearly as good as their record indicates (while admittedly not nearly as bad as my preseason forecast indicated). There's a reason that Vegas is giving such a small spread in a game against arguably the worst team in the AFC South that has achieved .500 results against a very soft schedule. Still, Jacksonville does have playmakers.
B) Nobody's played really well on Thursday Night in a while... Nobody. Pittsburgh didn't play well against Cleveland (who remains incapable of playing well ever). The Giants laid an egg against the Broncos (who accumulated almost as much yardage through false starts as the Giants allowed DeSean Jackson to gain in their subsequent game everytime he touched the ball). Before that, the Bills, Jets and 49ers looked bad. And to say the Bears were anything but terrible would be just wrong. What's my point? In sloppy slugfests- take the crowd and the points.
C) The Colts will have to compensate for their holes in their secondary by giving up some push at the line of scrimmage. In their Week 1 14-12 victory over Jacksonville, David Garrard couldn't quite turn the game around because he had been under pressure. Since then, Jacksonville has learned both pass protection and that getting Maurice Jones-Drew the ball really can pay off. The Jaguars should be able to put up points against a spotty Colts' D. Manning will have to have another gem to match them.
D) This game will come down to the fingertips of Colts' Wide Receivers and Dallas Clark. If Clark can continue to be as consistent catching the ball as he's been in recent games and Manning can keep himself in a rhythm with confidence that receivers won't be dropping easy passes, the Colts will be a very difficult offense to stop. This being a Thursday Night game, I hesitate to say the Colts achieve this... but you know I'm a doubter.
E) Because I'm an arrogant prick who wants nothing more than to look at this post Friday Morning, smile, and say "I told you so"
The Pick: Jags 27 Colts 20
Saturday, December 12, 2009
Week 14... it's getting juicy
Thursday Night: 0-1
Last Week: 7-9, 1-3 Bold Picks
Season: 99-92, 27-24 Bold Picks
Broncos +7 over COLTS
Picking this game is like picking which movie I liked better between The Dark Knight and the third Lord of the Rings movie- both quality movies but both tremendously overrated by the general public. This is the first game in a while that I think the Colts’ actually have a decent personnel advantage. So why pick Denver-a team I’ve been doubting all year? Easy.
Josh McDaniels has his players playing harder and smarter for him than any other coach in the league (except maybe Ken Whisenhunt and Tony Sparano). He’s the kind of coach I expect Peyton Manning to be ten years from now. I think McDaniels has a game plan to take advantage of the Colts’ depleted secondary and not let them put together unanswered scores. I never thought I’d say this, but Denver made a great move by firing Mike Shanahan last year and replacing him with McDaniels. The Colts’ have beaten better teams, but this will be a great test for them.
Bengals +7 over VIKINGS
I expect the Bengals to win this one outright. Cincinnati has a knack for playing great games against teams that should beat them. Hopefully this is the game Cincinnati trusts Carson Palmer rather than run at the Williams wall. I think the Bengals can have some success running but need a big game from Carson Palmer. On the other side of the ball, expect Minnesota to go back to an offense heavily focused on the run, even though they will play the stingiest run defense in the league. They demonstrated last week that Brett Favre can’t do it all himself when the defense is playing zone coverage (and shouldn’t have to!). The Bengals should take the crowd out by stopping Minnesota on a couple early possessions and play most of the game with a lead. This is a game where it really sucks to have Brad Childress (evil beard not withstanding) on the sidelines.
Jets -3.5 over BUCCANEERS
I think the Bucs will have a lot of trouble moving the football, especially without a healthy Cadillac Williams. Clemens should be a nice fit for the Jets offense and provide a much-needed spark for Braylon Edwards. A long week won’t hurt either.
CHIEFS +2 over Bills
I don’t think Buffalo can get motivated to play in Kansas City, even after ten days rest. The Chiefs have a very dangerous December crowd.
BEARS +4.5 over Packers
This has all the makings of an upset. A Mike McCarthy coached team coming off of four mediocre wins (the Cowboys and Ravens both played terribly) heading into a stadium where the fans loathe them (almost as much as they loathe their own team). I think Forte breaks out for a huge game this week and a couple of questionable decisions (and nondecisions) by Aaron Rodgers tighten up the Wild Card race in the NFC.
Saints -10 over FALCONS
After the Giants started their downhill spiral by losing to the Saints, I penciled this game as the toughest remaining game New Orleans had left in the regular season. A few crucial injuries later and this has blowout written all over it. While I’ve been reading stuff all week such as, “You don’t make money betting on a 12-0 team playing in their division,” I can tell you one thing with a lot of confidence… you sure as hell don’t win a lot of money by betting on Chris Redman against a 12-0 team.
RAVENS -14 over Lions
I really, really hope that Pittsburgh’s collapse isn’t making Baltimore a little jealous. I tweeted during the Steelers Titans game that opened the season that Ben Roethlisberger was making some really bad throws and that Eli would have been slaughtered by the media if he put on a performance like that (who’d have thought those two teams would be a combined 10-13 since that game (I feel like now is a great time to remind everyone I picked neither Pittsburgh nor Tennessee to make the playoffs in my Season Preview)). In any case, I expect Baltimore to get back to the ground and wear Detroit’s defense down easily.
Panthers +14 over PATRIOTS
Before anyone tells me that this is the classic setup of a Patriots’ throttling of a warm-weather opponent to regain momentum for the season, I’d like to look at Carolina’s performances last year in late-season cold weather games. They beat Green Bay in Lambeau 35-31 and lost a thriller in overtime to the Giants 34-28. John Fox is a cold-weather coach and the Panthers (SHOULD) run a cold-weather offense. The most overlooked aspect of this game is Carolina’s rushing offense against a New England defense that while only allowing 3 rushing touchdowns, ranks in the middle of the pack at best in every other run defense category. Don’t get sucked into taking the Pats in this one.
Dolphins +3 over JAGUARS
Miami is in the thick of the AFC East divisional race and heads to Jacksonville for what is almost a ninth home game for them. This is a really interesting game as it will say a lot about where both teams are right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a blowout either way. I hesitate to pick the Dolphins because I really don’t think they’re that good, but I like them here… just enough.
TEXANS -7 over Seahawks
No, I’m not a believer in Houston anymore (sigh, damn you Gary Kubiak and your Romoesque clutch performances to close out games), but Seattle is truly awful on the road. This game will be the AFC South’s payback for Seattle’s 41-0 shellacking of Jacksonville that seems like such a long time ago.
TITANS -13 over Rams
I gambled last week by taking the Rams to cover against the heavily favored Bears, won, and now have decided not to press my luck by doubling down. I can’t see St. Louis coming up with an answer for Chris Johnson, even though Vince Young will be limited this week. Titans win this one easily.
RAIDERS +1 over Redskins
Without De’Angelo Hall and Albert Haynesworth, I don’t see the Redskins having a lot of success on defense. Considering the Redskins have demonstrated beyond a reasonable doubt that they can lose a game better than probably any other team in football, I like going against the grains this week and picking Oakland to stay hot with a win over Washington.
COWBOYS -3 over Chargers
Dallas played one of its best games of the season last week (yes I know they lost). I think the Cowboys will really be playing with intensity as the media continues to doubt their December football. Jason Garrett is definitely going to switch back to a more run-oriented offense. San Diego should expect to be having to keep pace the whole game. I expect this game to go way over the 48.5 over/under.
GIANTS (NL) over Eagles
I can’t emphasize enough how big this game is for both teams. A win for the Giants keeps Big Blue in control of their own destiny and gives them the momentum to hit the playoffs in stride. A win for Philadelphia gives Philadelphia a strong grip on the NFC East and could very well eliminate one of their toughest potential postseason opponents. Last time these teams met, the Giants were flat-out caught off guard and never regained their composure. This time, they’re coming off the most impressive win of the season and under the impression that nobody, Pro Bowlers included, is completely safe in their job. Hopefully Eli’s dump to Boss last week can inspire Gilbride to actually call for Boss to get involved short when the defense is in a deep zone. If the Giants can hold onto the football by catching easy passes and avoiding costly fumbles, the Giants should win this one no problem. I also think that Aaron Ross playing as a safety can take a potential big play away from DeSean Jackson.
49ERS +3.5 over Cardinals
The Niners pulled off an upset of Arizona the last time these two teams played, and I don’t see any reason for them to do the same thing again. San Francisco is a good team. When they figure out how to run the ball and pass the ball well in the same game, they’ll be dangerous.
Last Week: 7-9, 1-3 Bold Picks
Season: 99-92, 27-24 Bold Picks
Broncos +7 over COLTS
Picking this game is like picking which movie I liked better between The Dark Knight and the third Lord of the Rings movie- both quality movies but both tremendously overrated by the general public. This is the first game in a while that I think the Colts’ actually have a decent personnel advantage. So why pick Denver-a team I’ve been doubting all year? Easy.
Josh McDaniels has his players playing harder and smarter for him than any other coach in the league (except maybe Ken Whisenhunt and Tony Sparano). He’s the kind of coach I expect Peyton Manning to be ten years from now. I think McDaniels has a game plan to take advantage of the Colts’ depleted secondary and not let them put together unanswered scores. I never thought I’d say this, but Denver made a great move by firing Mike Shanahan last year and replacing him with McDaniels. The Colts’ have beaten better teams, but this will be a great test for them.
Bengals +7 over VIKINGS
I expect the Bengals to win this one outright. Cincinnati has a knack for playing great games against teams that should beat them. Hopefully this is the game Cincinnati trusts Carson Palmer rather than run at the Williams wall. I think the Bengals can have some success running but need a big game from Carson Palmer. On the other side of the ball, expect Minnesota to go back to an offense heavily focused on the run, even though they will play the stingiest run defense in the league. They demonstrated last week that Brett Favre can’t do it all himself when the defense is playing zone coverage (and shouldn’t have to!). The Bengals should take the crowd out by stopping Minnesota on a couple early possessions and play most of the game with a lead. This is a game where it really sucks to have Brad Childress (evil beard not withstanding) on the sidelines.
Jets -3.5 over BUCCANEERS
I think the Bucs will have a lot of trouble moving the football, especially without a healthy Cadillac Williams. Clemens should be a nice fit for the Jets offense and provide a much-needed spark for Braylon Edwards. A long week won’t hurt either.
CHIEFS +2 over Bills
I don’t think Buffalo can get motivated to play in Kansas City, even after ten days rest. The Chiefs have a very dangerous December crowd.
BEARS +4.5 over Packers
This has all the makings of an upset. A Mike McCarthy coached team coming off of four mediocre wins (the Cowboys and Ravens both played terribly) heading into a stadium where the fans loathe them (almost as much as they loathe their own team). I think Forte breaks out for a huge game this week and a couple of questionable decisions (and nondecisions) by Aaron Rodgers tighten up the Wild Card race in the NFC.
Saints -10 over FALCONS
After the Giants started their downhill spiral by losing to the Saints, I penciled this game as the toughest remaining game New Orleans had left in the regular season. A few crucial injuries later and this has blowout written all over it. While I’ve been reading stuff all week such as, “You don’t make money betting on a 12-0 team playing in their division,” I can tell you one thing with a lot of confidence… you sure as hell don’t win a lot of money by betting on Chris Redman against a 12-0 team.
RAVENS -14 over Lions
I really, really hope that Pittsburgh’s collapse isn’t making Baltimore a little jealous. I tweeted during the Steelers Titans game that opened the season that Ben Roethlisberger was making some really bad throws and that Eli would have been slaughtered by the media if he put on a performance like that (who’d have thought those two teams would be a combined 10-13 since that game (I feel like now is a great time to remind everyone I picked neither Pittsburgh nor Tennessee to make the playoffs in my Season Preview)). In any case, I expect Baltimore to get back to the ground and wear Detroit’s defense down easily.
Panthers +14 over PATRIOTS
Before anyone tells me that this is the classic setup of a Patriots’ throttling of a warm-weather opponent to regain momentum for the season, I’d like to look at Carolina’s performances last year in late-season cold weather games. They beat Green Bay in Lambeau 35-31 and lost a thriller in overtime to the Giants 34-28. John Fox is a cold-weather coach and the Panthers (SHOULD) run a cold-weather offense. The most overlooked aspect of this game is Carolina’s rushing offense against a New England defense that while only allowing 3 rushing touchdowns, ranks in the middle of the pack at best in every other run defense category. Don’t get sucked into taking the Pats in this one.
Dolphins +3 over JAGUARS
Miami is in the thick of the AFC East divisional race and heads to Jacksonville for what is almost a ninth home game for them. This is a really interesting game as it will say a lot about where both teams are right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a blowout either way. I hesitate to pick the Dolphins because I really don’t think they’re that good, but I like them here… just enough.
TEXANS -7 over Seahawks
No, I’m not a believer in Houston anymore (sigh, damn you Gary Kubiak and your Romoesque clutch performances to close out games), but Seattle is truly awful on the road. This game will be the AFC South’s payback for Seattle’s 41-0 shellacking of Jacksonville that seems like such a long time ago.
TITANS -13 over Rams
I gambled last week by taking the Rams to cover against the heavily favored Bears, won, and now have decided not to press my luck by doubling down. I can’t see St. Louis coming up with an answer for Chris Johnson, even though Vince Young will be limited this week. Titans win this one easily.
RAIDERS +1 over Redskins
Without De’Angelo Hall and Albert Haynesworth, I don’t see the Redskins having a lot of success on defense. Considering the Redskins have demonstrated beyond a reasonable doubt that they can lose a game better than probably any other team in football, I like going against the grains this week and picking Oakland to stay hot with a win over Washington.
COWBOYS -3 over Chargers
Dallas played one of its best games of the season last week (yes I know they lost). I think the Cowboys will really be playing with intensity as the media continues to doubt their December football. Jason Garrett is definitely going to switch back to a more run-oriented offense. San Diego should expect to be having to keep pace the whole game. I expect this game to go way over the 48.5 over/under.
GIANTS (NL) over Eagles
I can’t emphasize enough how big this game is for both teams. A win for the Giants keeps Big Blue in control of their own destiny and gives them the momentum to hit the playoffs in stride. A win for Philadelphia gives Philadelphia a strong grip on the NFC East and could very well eliminate one of their toughest potential postseason opponents. Last time these teams met, the Giants were flat-out caught off guard and never regained their composure. This time, they’re coming off the most impressive win of the season and under the impression that nobody, Pro Bowlers included, is completely safe in their job. Hopefully Eli’s dump to Boss last week can inspire Gilbride to actually call for Boss to get involved short when the defense is in a deep zone. If the Giants can hold onto the football by catching easy passes and avoiding costly fumbles, the Giants should win this one no problem. I also think that Aaron Ross playing as a safety can take a potential big play away from DeSean Jackson.
49ERS +3.5 over Cardinals
The Niners pulled off an upset of Arizona the last time these two teams played, and I don’t see any reason for them to do the same thing again. San Francisco is a good team. When they figure out how to run the ball and pass the ball well in the same game, they’ll be dangerous.
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