Week 14... it's getting juicy

Thursday Night: 0-1
Last Week: 7-9, 1-3 Bold Picks
Season: 99-92, 27-24 Bold Picks


Broncos +7 over COLTS

Picking this game is like picking which movie I liked better between The Dark Knight and the third Lord of the Rings movie- both quality movies but both tremendously overrated by the general public. This is the first game in a while that I think the Colts’ actually have a decent personnel advantage. So why pick Denver-a team I’ve been doubting all year? Easy.
Josh McDaniels has his players playing harder and smarter for him than any other coach in the league (except maybe Ken Whisenhunt and Tony Sparano). He’s the kind of coach I expect Peyton Manning to be ten years from now. I think McDaniels has a game plan to take advantage of the Colts’ depleted secondary and not let them put together unanswered scores. I never thought I’d say this, but Denver made a great move by firing Mike Shanahan last year and replacing him with McDaniels. The Colts’ have beaten better teams, but this will be a great test for them.

Bengals +7 over VIKINGS

I expect the Bengals to win this one outright. Cincinnati has a knack for playing great games against teams that should beat them. Hopefully this is the game Cincinnati trusts Carson Palmer rather than run at the Williams wall. I think the Bengals can have some success running but need a big game from Carson Palmer. On the other side of the ball, expect Minnesota to go back to an offense heavily focused on the run, even though they will play the stingiest run defense in the league. They demonstrated last week that Brett Favre can’t do it all himself when the defense is playing zone coverage (and shouldn’t have to!). The Bengals should take the crowd out by stopping Minnesota on a couple early possessions and play most of the game with a lead. This is a game where it really sucks to have Brad Childress (evil beard not withstanding) on the sidelines.

Jets -3.5 over BUCCANEERS

I think the Bucs will have a lot of trouble moving the football, especially without a healthy Cadillac Williams. Clemens should be a nice fit for the Jets offense and provide a much-needed spark for Braylon Edwards. A long week won’t hurt either.

CHIEFS +2 over Bills

I don’t think Buffalo can get motivated to play in Kansas City, even after ten days rest. The Chiefs have a very dangerous December crowd.

BEARS +4.5 over Packers

This has all the makings of an upset. A Mike McCarthy coached team coming off of four mediocre wins (the Cowboys and Ravens both played terribly) heading into a stadium where the fans loathe them (almost as much as they loathe their own team). I think Forte breaks out for a huge game this week and a couple of questionable decisions (and nondecisions) by Aaron Rodgers tighten up the Wild Card race in the NFC.

Saints -10 over FALCONS

After the Giants started their downhill spiral by losing to the Saints, I penciled this game as the toughest remaining game New Orleans had left in the regular season. A few crucial injuries later and this has blowout written all over it. While I’ve been reading stuff all week such as, “You don’t make money betting on a 12-0 team playing in their division,” I can tell you one thing with a lot of confidence… you sure as hell don’t win a lot of money by betting on Chris Redman against a 12-0 team.

RAVENS -14 over Lions

I really, really hope that Pittsburgh’s collapse isn’t making Baltimore a little jealous. I tweeted during the Steelers Titans game that opened the season that Ben Roethlisberger was making some really bad throws and that Eli would have been slaughtered by the media if he put on a performance like that (who’d have thought those two teams would be a combined 10-13 since that game (I feel like now is a great time to remind everyone I picked neither Pittsburgh nor Tennessee to make the playoffs in my Season Preview)). In any case, I expect Baltimore to get back to the ground and wear Detroit’s defense down easily.

Panthers +14 over PATRIOTS

Before anyone tells me that this is the classic setup of a Patriots’ throttling of a warm-weather opponent to regain momentum for the season, I’d like to look at Carolina’s performances last year in late-season cold weather games. They beat Green Bay in Lambeau 35-31 and lost a thriller in overtime to the Giants 34-28. John Fox is a cold-weather coach and the Panthers (SHOULD) run a cold-weather offense. The most overlooked aspect of this game is Carolina’s rushing offense against a New England defense that while only allowing 3 rushing touchdowns, ranks in the middle of the pack at best in every other run defense category. Don’t get sucked into taking the Pats in this one.

Dolphins +3 over JAGUARS

Miami is in the thick of the AFC East divisional race and heads to Jacksonville for what is almost a ninth home game for them. This is a really interesting game as it will say a lot about where both teams are right now. I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a blowout either way. I hesitate to pick the Dolphins because I really don’t think they’re that good, but I like them here… just enough.

TEXANS -7 over Seahawks

No, I’m not a believer in Houston anymore (sigh, damn you Gary Kubiak and your Romoesque clutch performances to close out games), but Seattle is truly awful on the road. This game will be the AFC South’s payback for Seattle’s 41-0 shellacking of Jacksonville that seems like such a long time ago.

TITANS -13 over Rams

I gambled last week by taking the Rams to cover against the heavily favored Bears, won, and now have decided not to press my luck by doubling down. I can’t see St. Louis coming up with an answer for Chris Johnson, even though Vince Young will be limited this week. Titans win this one easily.

RAIDERS +1 over Redskins

Without De’Angelo Hall and Albert Haynesworth, I don’t see the Redskins having a lot of success on defense. Considering the Redskins have demonstrated beyond a reasonable doubt that they can lose a game better than probably any other team in football, I like going against the grains this week and picking Oakland to stay hot with a win over Washington.

COWBOYS -3 over Chargers

Dallas played one of its best games of the season last week (yes I know they lost). I think the Cowboys will really be playing with intensity as the media continues to doubt their December football. Jason Garrett is definitely going to switch back to a more run-oriented offense. San Diego should expect to be having to keep pace the whole game. I expect this game to go way over the 48.5 over/under.

GIANTS (NL) over Eagles

I can’t emphasize enough how big this game is for both teams. A win for the Giants keeps Big Blue in control of their own destiny and gives them the momentum to hit the playoffs in stride. A win for Philadelphia gives Philadelphia a strong grip on the NFC East and could very well eliminate one of their toughest potential postseason opponents. Last time these teams met, the Giants were flat-out caught off guard and never regained their composure. This time, they’re coming off the most impressive win of the season and under the impression that nobody, Pro Bowlers included, is completely safe in their job. Hopefully Eli’s dump to Boss last week can inspire Gilbride to actually call for Boss to get involved short when the defense is in a deep zone. If the Giants can hold onto the football by catching easy passes and avoiding costly fumbles, the Giants should win this one no problem. I also think that Aaron Ross playing as a safety can take a potential big play away from DeSean Jackson.

49ERS +3.5 over Cardinals
The Niners pulled off an upset of Arizona the last time these two teams played, and I don’t see any reason for them to do the same thing again. San Francisco is a good team. When they figure out how to run the ball and pass the ball well in the same game, they’ll be dangerous.