Week 16 Picks

Last Week 9-6-1 (0-3)* 2 Losses by half a point. One bold pick failing to cover a 4.5 point spread after being up by 18. GRRRR
Season 116-106 (29-29)

Included is my record picking each team against the spread with my record picking them as a bold pick in parentheses.
DOLPHINS -3 over Texans
Mia 6-8 (3-3) Hou 7-6 (1-1)
Both teams have outside shots to make the playoffs heading into this showdown. Miami has two overwhelming advantages going into this game: the home crowd and the most lopsided coaching matchup we may have seen all season. While I know Houston will have success throwing on the Dolphins, I can’t imagine they sustain it for four quarters. Ricky Williams needs to hold onto the ball and Chad Henne needs to avoid costly mistakes such as last week’s overtime interception. If Houston takes an early lead, Miami still should be able to squeeze the game out late. If Miami takes an early lead, Houston’s playoff chances are done.
Ravens +3 over STEELERS Bal 10-4 (4-3) Pit 9-5 (1-0)
I’d like to give a well-done to the odds-makers who set last week’s Steelers’ line against Green Bay at -1.5. Hats off to both teams for tremendous performances in that game last week, most particularly to Ben Roethlisberger. This week, Pittsburgh again faces elimination against a Ravens team who’d love to avenge last years Conference Championship loss by knocking off the defending champs. Baltimore is coming off of a dismantling of Chicago and has their momentum back. Baltimore needs to center their offensive game plan around Ray Rice to give Pittsburgh a season record of 1-5 in the AFC North. The Ravens are the better team, especially with Pittsburgh’s injuries on defense. Play Baltimore.
BENGALS -13.5 over Chiefs Cin 10-4 (4-4) KC 9-5 (1-2)
The Bengals can’t look past Kansas City, a golden opportunity for them to clinch the AFC North. They played San Diego with a lot of emotion but couldn’t quite end San Diego’s winning streak. The Chiefs put up some points against Cleveland but face a much stiffer Bengals defense this week. On the other hand, Kansas City’s defense has really been terrible. Cedric Benson should wear down Kansas City and give Larry Johnson a chance for revenge against his former team. Cincinnati should have a lot of success on both sides of the ball; this game shouldn’t be close.
SAINTS -14 over Buccaneers NO 8-6 (0-2) TB 8-6 (0-2)
Congratulations to Tampa Bay for closing the Saints’ lead over them from 12 down to only 11 games last week. New Orleans will make it back this week. Tampa Bay’s pass defense is terrible; Brees should have a field day. Interesting note- New Orleans is 13-0 with Jeremy Shockey on the field and 0-1 without him. It’s hard to emphasize just how big of a role Shockey has played in the Saints’ success.
Jaguars +8.5 over PATRIOTS Jax 9-5 (2-0) NE 10-3 (5-0)
Congratulations to the Jaguars (at least on offense) for a well-fought game last week against Peyton Manning’s Colts. Unfortunately well-fought games aren’t quite enough to get them into the playoffs. This week, Jacksonville should have similar success on offense against a mediocre Patriots defense and should be able to muster some stops on defense after failing to get it done last week. The Patriots aren’t looking to get just a win against Jacksonville; they want a blowout with an exclamation point to give them momentum for the playoffs. I think Jacksonville gives them a lot of problems in this game and pulls of an upset to stay alive in the playoffs.
Raiders +3 over BROWNS Oak 10-4 (1-1) Cle 7-7 (0-1)
Expect Charlie Frye to succeed in making Cleveland pay for letting him go. The Browns should get another 100 yard day from Jerome Harrison, but if they’re defense is anywhere near as terrible as they were in Kansas City, then Oakland should win this game easily and secure another year for Tom Cable, especially if he can keep his hands to himself. Derek Anderson and Mohammad Massaquoi vs. Nnamdi Asomugha is a huge mismatch. The amazing thing about this game is oddsmakers are saying that they expect the Cleveland Browns to be on a three game winning streak after this game. I’m slightly less optimistic.
Seahawks +14 over PACKERS Sea 9-5 (2-0) GB 6-8 (1-2)
Oh goody, we’ve got ourselves a battle of the only two teams Tampa Bay has beaten this season. Seattle has played some really awful football over the past few weeks while the Packers can put themselves in position to clinch a playoff berth with a win. I think Seattle comes into this game with the same mentality that Green Bay had after their loss to the Bucs. I don’t think the Seahawks have quite given up on Jim Mora (even though he does not deserve to come back next season). Seattle has been slapped in the face by former coach Mike Holmgren and will come out flying against the Packers. I don’t have quite the chutzpah to pick Seattle to beat the Packers, but I doubt they’re willing to pack up yet. These guys are playing for their jobs. In a game where they can’t be eliminated for playoff contention, I think Green Bay disappoints, especially after last week’s heartbreaker.
GIANTS -7 over Panthers NYG 6-8 (1-3) Car 5-9 (2-2)
I find it very appropriate that John Fox squares off against his old team in the Giants’ last game at Giants’ Stadium. Big Blue put together a very impressive win against Washington last week- so impressive that even I was complimenting Kevin Gilbride for his play-calling. The Giants finally utilized Jacobs and Bradshaw correctly and involved their tight ends early and often. Defensively, the Giants finally succeeded in getting pressure from the middle which set everything else in the right direction. Especially if DeAngelo Williams can’t suit up, the Giants should get the double whammy in this game both by keeping their playoff hopes alive and by throwing some fire under the hot seat on which John Fox finds himself. The battle of Steve Smiths should be interesting, but there is a big difference between a Moore and a Manning. This is a huge game for the NFC playoff picture, and I will be one among a loud many at the stadium.
Bills +9 over FALCONS Buf 4-9 (1-2) Atl 7-7 (1-1)
Give the Falcons their credit for a tremendous defensive performance in a win against the Jets, even after being eliminated from playoff contention. The Falcons were one Braylon Edwards drop from shutting out a team that still can make the playoffs. Buffalo’s defense will be tested especially after losing Defensive Rookie of the Year candidate and team interception leader Paul Byrd. If the Bills can get any push out of their offensive line, I don’t think Atlanta will be able to dominate. The Falcons are the better team but probably won’t cover. This is probably my least confident pick this week (which of course probably means that it’s the only advice you should take).
Lions +13 over 49ERS Det 5-8 (0-2) SF 9-4 (4-2)
Drew Stanton gives Detroit its best chance to move the ball against a still underrated 49ers team. I still think San Francisco has a good team but am now ready to label Alex Smith a bust. I bet the Niners will rely too heavily on Frank Gore’s legs and let Detroit hang around. This won’t be a very good game.
CARDINALS -14.5 over Rams Ari 7-7 (5-3) Stl 8-6 (2-3)
The Rams are the worst team in football. Ndamakong Suh will start to turn their franchise around, but he isn’t there yet. Arizona will put up points in bursts and cover this one easily.
Jets +6 over COLTS NYJ 6-8 (1-0) Ind 4-10 (2-3)
If anyone can stop Peyton Manning (and I clearly believe someone can), it should be the top ranked defense in football. Manning has shown that he can thread tighter coverage than anyone in the league but has yet to face Darrelle Revis. The Jets need to upgrade their effort from last week on offense to give themselves a chance to stay alive in the hunt for the playoffs. Rex Ryan will have them motivated for this game. This will be a game of field possession. Take the points.
EAGLES -7 over Broncos Phi 7-7 (0-4) Den 3-11 (1-3)
Brian Dawkins returns to Philadelphia and should receive a standing ovation followed by a pounding from his former team. The best of the NFC East is too explosive for the Broncos. I don’t remember ever seeing two teams that started 5-0 (Denver and the New York Giants) so close to missing the playoffs. Unfortunately for Giants fans, this game will likely remove Philadelphia’s incentive to play hard against Dallas next week, especially after
REDSKINS +7 over Cowboys Was 4-10 (1-3) Dal 9-5 (5-1)
This is the classic buy low sell high game. Prior to last week’s collapse against the Giants, the Redskins have played hard long after being eliminated from playoff contention. This week, they face their archrivals who happen to be notoriously bad in December. Dallas couldn’t score until the very end the last time they faced Washington because they couldn’t get success running it up the middle. Unless Washington removes Albert Haynesworth from the field, Dallas will have their hands full as they try to hold onto their lead over the Giants. The Redskins would love a win against an NFC East team, and they should get one in their last chance. Don’t expect Washington to embarrass themselves two weeks in a row on prime time.
Vikings -7 over BEARS Min 5-9 (2-2) Chi 8-6 (1-0)
Having lost two of three, the Vikings face a Bears team that is playing for the already slim chances Coach Lovie Smith has of returning next year. Considering they’ve already given up on Jay Cutler, I’d be shocked if the Bears can put anything together. Cutler needs to be benched; he’s been terrible this season. Meanwhile, I think the Vikings should be able to rebound with a big game from Peterson and Brett Favre even more fluently than the media can create a story around Favre and his problems. The Vikings had their wake-up call last week and won’t let their chances at a bye slip away just yet.

Playoff Seedings
AFC
Ind
SD
Cin
Mia
Bal
Jax

NFC
NO
Phi
Min
Ari
GB
NYG