The Playoff Chances of the Giants

Big, Blue, and Breathing

While the Cowboys’ upset over the Saints pointed to what many Giants fans believed was the final nail in a well-earned coffin, a win over Washington will put the Giants in a better position to make the playoffs than a quick glance at the standings would lead one to think. Even though Philadelphia held serve with a win against the 49ers to eliminate the Giants from contention for the NFC East, the Giants remain poised to snag a Wild Card spot as the 6th or possibly even the 5th seed.
It remains impossible for the Giants to catch up to New Orleans or Minnesota; even if the Giants do win out, they’ll only reach ten wins. Arizona also has clinched a higher seed than the Giants, having clinched the weak NFC West. This leaves the Giants jostling for playoff position with Dallas and Green Bay.
The playoffs are seeded from the division winner with the best record down to the division winner with the fourth best record. Since the addition of the Houston Texans to the NFL, that leaves room for only two Wild Card teams. In the NFC, those teams will be some combination of two out of the following four teams: Philadelphia, Dallas, Green Bay, and New York- with either Dallas or Philadelphia winning the NFC East. Going into the Monday Night showdown between New York and Washington, the Eagles are 10-4 with an upcoming home game against Denver and season finale in Dallas, the Packers are 9-5 with an upcoming home game against Seattle and season finale in Arizona, the Cowboys are 9-5 with two intradivision games remaining- on the road against a Redskins team on short rest and then finally hosting Philadelphia, and the Giants are 7-6 with tonight’s game in Washington, the last game they’ll play at Giants’ Stadium the week after (barring extraordinary circumstances), and then a road game in Minnesota. There’s a lot of football left.
NFL Wild Card Tiebreaking Procedures are sorted as follows:
1. Head to Head Record
2. Record in games played within Conference
3. Record in Common Games
Several other qualifiers are listed to break ties after the three steps listed above, but none will factor into the NFC this year. In head to head games so far this season, Dallas has beaten Philadelphia but lost once to Green Bay and twice to New York. This means that while the Cowboys control their own destiny within the division, they will lose any Wild Card tiebreaker and are one loss away from needing help to qualify for the playoffs.
Next, we look at Green Bay in comparison to New York. The teams have not played and both finished 2-2 against the AFC which means should the teams have an identical record in their 12 games within the NFC, it comes down to a record in games against opponents they have both faced: Minnesota, Arizona, Dallas, and Tampa Bay. The Giants have yet to face Minnesota but have two wins over Dallas and one over Tampa Bay. The Packers have yet to face Arizona but have a win over Dallas and three losses against these opponents; Brett Favre and the Vikings beat Green Bay twice while Josh Freeman and the Buccaneers won their only game before yesterday against Green Bay. This means that with a 3-1 record against common opponents, the Giants have clinched tiebreakers over the Packers who are 1-3 against the same teams.
For simplicity’s sake, I’m assuming that no remaining game will end in a tie. If you’re genuinely wondering what will happen if at least two of the eight games I listed above do end in ties, just leave a comment below and I’ll humor you. That said, here is every potential win/loss outcome of the above games and the consequences for the Giants in the playoff picture. All games unless otherwise specified are interchangeable.

I. New York wins anything fewer than two of three remaining games
A. New York is eliminated
II. New York wins 2 games and loses 1
A. New York qualifies for the 5th seed IF
1. Dallas and Green Bay both lose remaining games to finish in a three way tie at 9-7 (Green Bay would get the 6th seed)
B. New York qualifies for the 6th seed IF
1. Dallas loses both remaining games AND Green Bay does not OR
2. Green Bay loses both remaining games AND Dallas does not
C. New York is eliminated IF neither Dallas nor Green Bay loses both remaining games
III. New York wins all 3 remaining games
A. New York qualifies for 5th seed IF
1. Green Bay loses at least one game AND
a) Dallas loses to Philadelphia OR
b) Dallas loses to Washington AND Philadelphia beats Denver
B. New York qualifies for 6th seed IF
1. Green Bay loses either game AND
a) Dallas does not lose either game OR
b) Philadelphia loses to Denver and Dallas
2. Dallas loses either game AND Green Bay does not
C. New York is eliminated IF Dallas and Green Bay win both remaining games

Notes: Should New York win out, Philadelphia lose out, and Washington upset Dallas: the Giants, Cowboys, and Eagles will all finish 10-6 atop the NFC East. Dallas’s 3-3 record eliminates them from NFC East contention which gives Philadelphia the division based on a head to head sweep of New York (New York and Philadelphia are 4-2). Otherwise, a two team tie between Dallas and Philadelphia will give Dallas the division based on a better head to head record (if Philadelphia beats Dallas to have an even head to head record, Dallas will have no chance at tying Philadelphia). Finally, the Week 16 showdown between Carolina and New York will be the last game the Giants play at Giants stadium unless Big Blue secures the 5th seed and no home team wins in any of the four games before the Conference Championship game. There is an outside chance that New York will host the NFC Championship game.

Finally, returning to my subjective standpoint- Green Bay is a near lock to beat Seattle next week which puts the Giants in a tricky situation. Assuming Arizona can rest their starters and guarantee they play Green Bay (probably the weakest of the teams still in Wild Card contention) in a rematch with real consequences the next week. By the Cardinals/Packers kickoff (4:15 Eastern), the playoff picture will look very clear.

There’s a lot of good football left. Go Giants!