Last Week: 7-9 Overall 1-3 Bold
Season: 106-100 Overall 29-26 Bold
Colts Games*: 4-9 Overall 2-3 Bold
Jaguars Games: 9-4 Overall 2-0 Bold
*- Stats list my Ravens Colts (bold) pick as incorrect despite me winning the best I'd placed on Baltimore after the line moved to 3... Sigh
Thursday Night Pick:
JAGUARS +3.5 over Colts
This pick comes down to a few factors.
A) I will not let myself pick the Colts on the night of their first loss of the season... Do I see it coming tonight? Well, I honestly see the Colts pulling out the 3 point squeaker. They're still not nearly as good as their record indicates (while admittedly not nearly as bad as my preseason forecast indicated). There's a reason that Vegas is giving such a small spread in a game against arguably the worst team in the AFC South that has achieved .500 results against a very soft schedule. Still, Jacksonville does have playmakers.
B) Nobody's played really well on Thursday Night in a while... Nobody. Pittsburgh didn't play well against Cleveland (who remains incapable of playing well ever). The Giants laid an egg against the Broncos (who accumulated almost as much yardage through false starts as the Giants allowed DeSean Jackson to gain in their subsequent game everytime he touched the ball). Before that, the Bills, Jets and 49ers looked bad. And to say the Bears were anything but terrible would be just wrong. What's my point? In sloppy slugfests- take the crowd and the points.
C) The Colts will have to compensate for their holes in their secondary by giving up some push at the line of scrimmage. In their Week 1 14-12 victory over Jacksonville, David Garrard couldn't quite turn the game around because he had been under pressure. Since then, Jacksonville has learned both pass protection and that getting Maurice Jones-Drew the ball really can pay off. The Jaguars should be able to put up points against a spotty Colts' D. Manning will have to have another gem to match them.
D) This game will come down to the fingertips of Colts' Wide Receivers and Dallas Clark. If Clark can continue to be as consistent catching the ball as he's been in recent games and Manning can keep himself in a rhythm with confidence that receivers won't be dropping easy passes, the Colts will be a very difficult offense to stop. This being a Thursday Night game, I hesitate to say the Colts achieve this... but you know I'm a doubter.
E) Because I'm an arrogant prick who wants nothing more than to look at this post Friday Morning, smile, and say "I told you so"
The Pick: Jags 27 Colts 20
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment