Picks and Playoff Projections:

CHIEFS -2 over Browns
KC 9-4 (1-1) Cle 7-6 (0-0)
The Chiefs are too good in late season games at Arrowhead. I think Todd Haley is a much better coach in-the-moment than Eric Mangini. The Browns lost a lot of push in their run defense with Shaun Rogers’s injury. I feel that the Chiefs will show flashes of the brilliance that awaits them down the road this week. Play Kansas City with any spread lower than 4-4.5.

RAVENS -10.5 over Bears
Chi 7-6 (1-0) Bal 9-4 (4-3)
I have trouble laying over ten points in this game, partially because I think Chicago will score early. That said, Baltimore ran the ball extremely well against Detroit and likely has figured out their recipe for success. Ray Rice should wear the Bears out and put Baltimore in position to pile on points late in the game. The Ravens are in prime position to put together a run to make the playoffs and make a lot of noise in a weak AFC field come January.

BILLS +7 over Patriots
Buf 4-9 (1-2) NE 10-3 (5-0)
New England is 1-5 against the spread since their Week 7 throttling of Tampa Bay in England earlier this year. Given that Miami faces a tough test this week in stopping Chris Johnson and the new-look Tennessee Titans, New England knows what’s at stake in a divisional game they should win. The Bills matched up very well against New England the last time these teams squared off, Week 1 at Gillette. The Bills have made progress since then while the Patriots have regressed. The Patriots will show up ready to make a statement but will struggle to respond if and when Buffalo catches some breaks. Lee Evans should break out for a huge game in this one.

LIONS +14 over Cardinals
Det 4-8 (0-2) Ari 6-7 (5-3)
I’d like to get a show of hands from everyone who still has any doubt as to the validity of the Madden Curse. Polamalu, Fitzgerald, Favre (and Green Bay last year even in his absence), Vince Young… YOU CAN’T MAKE THIS STUFF UP. I’m taking the points in this game- because I still don’t see Arizona as a 2 touchdown favorite, against anybody. Cards should win by 3-7, courtesy of a garbage time score.

Falcons +7 over JETS
Atl 6-7 (1-1) NYJ 5-8 (1-0)
Four weeks ago, Rex Ryan and his tear-stained speeches were providing me excuse after excuse to make fun of the Jets- as they insisted they’d been disrespected. Four weeks ago, the Falcons were gearing up for an eventual overtime thriller with huge Wild Card implications in the NFC, especially considering tiebreakers. Only a couple QB injuries later, the Jets have a legitimate shot at the final AFC Wild Card spot, and possibly even the AFC East while the Falcons are all but eliminated and doomed for yet another failure to follow up an over .500 season with similar success. Clemens gives the Jets their best chance to win; Ryan gives the Falcons their only chance to win. Neither of these teams have sustained their early season success- just how well these teams play down the stretch is largely a testament to their coaches. Falcons should rush for 200 yards in a win.

49ers +8 over EAGLES
SF 9-3 (4-1) Phi 7-6 (0-3)
In one of the best games we’ve been treated to so far this season, the Eagles scraped a win over the Giants with lots of help. Their defense put forth a really lackluster performance, bailed out by some key turnovers and the disappearing act Bill Sheridan pulled on what was once arguably the most feared defense in the league. San Francisco’s secondary is better than New York’s. Philadelphia should have a lot of trouble moving the ball on the 49ers while the 49ers are coming off a great offensive performance against the Cardinals. Biases aside, this is my upset pick of the week. San Francisco is going to be a contender next season, and they should be a fun team to watch play spoiler as this season concludes.

RAMS +14 over Texans
Hou 6-6 (1-1) Stl 7-6 (2-3)
Yes the Texans have more talent, especially on offense, than at least half of the AFC postseason field, but their season is essentially over, their coach is essentially fired, and they are coming into a game against a St. Louis team determined to give their fans one home win this season. 14 points? I have to take the Rams in this one.

TITANS -4.5 over Dolphins
Ten 7-6 (1-1) Mia 6-7 (3-2)
With some help from the right places, both of these teams still have a shot to qualify for the playoffs. This pick comes down to Tennessee’s ability to run the football and my doubts as to whether Miami will be able to come up with an answer for Chris Johnson. Without taking anything away from Chad Henne and the success that Tony Sparano has had with a really mediocre roster (especially after Ronnie Brown went down), Tennessee has too much firepower for Miami to keep pace. The Titans should win this one handily.

Raiders +14 over BRONCOS
Oak 9-4 (1-1) Den 2-11 (1-3)
A change of home field and twelve points of movement in the point spread aren’t the only difference between this game and the beat down Denver handed the Raiders in Week 3. Charlie Frye is a gritty quarterback who never got a fair shot in Cleveland or Seattle. I think he’ll fill in well for the injured Bruce Gradkowski. Despite my apprehension of picking anybody who needs someone to “fill in well for the injured Bruce Gradkowski,” I need to remember this is 2009. Kyle Orton is leading his team to the playoffs, Ryan Fitzpatrick is the savior in Buffalo, and Charlie Frye is going to cover the spread against Denver.

Bengals +7 over CHARGERS
Cin 9-4 (4-4) SD 7-6 (2-1)
Oh, how I wish this game was played six weeks ago- when the Bengals were the flavor of the week and the Chargers were the team that all the experts overestimated. Cincy is losing believers, but will be playing with emotion after losing Chris Henry this past week. Marvin Lewis is the right coach for a situation like this and should have the Bengals ready to put San Diego to the test.

STEELERS -1.5 over Packers
Pit 9-4 (1-0) GB 6-7 (1-2)
The Packers are taking a five game winning streak to Pittsburgh and trying to see if both their streak and the Steelers’ five game losing streak can survive the weekend. Even in their slump, Pittsburgh has played reasonably well at home, losing only by 6 to the Bengals and by 3 to an uncharacteristically crisp Raiders team. Losing to the Raiders, Chiefs, and Browns has sort of removed the bullseye from the Steelers- which should play to their advantage. While Mike Tomlin is not in jeopardy of losing his job, he could absolutely use a win to quiet down the doubters. The Packers are overrated, especially in this winning streak and will not do 9 or more points better than the Vikings did in Heinz Field.

Buccaneers +7 over SEAHAWKS
TB 7-6 (0-2) Sea 8-5 (2-0)
No, I swear I don’t have an aversion to taking 7 point favorites. The Seahawks are a terrible road team and a much better home team. But, Josh Freeman should have a good game and give the fans a W while giving Steve Spagnuolo a chance to get Ndamukong Suh and build around him. Bucs win this in an “upset”.

Vikings -9 over PANTHERS
Car 5-8 (3-1) Min 5-8 (2-2)
I took the Panthers when I penciled this pick in but am coming up empty with reasons as to why they should win. Their rushing game should be slowed to a halt by Minnesota’s “Williams Wall” and their passing game shouldn’t do all that much better. As a Giants fan, my desire to see Panthers Coach John Fox fired and thus eligible to come back to the Giants as a defensive coordinator (or maybe Head Coach, but I’m not going to get too hopeful) outweighs my concerns that the Vikings will play hard Week 17 to have a shot at home field. Let’s see how the Panthers can stop the Vikings’ offense.

Giants -2.5 over REDSKINS
NYG 5-8 (1-3) Was 3-10 (1-3)
The key to this game will be how well an injured Rich Seubert can hold off Albert Haynesworth. Seubert has the heart of a lion. I can’t doubt him now. Now or Never G-Men, Now or Never.

Projections for Playoff Seedings as of 12:00 am 12/20/09:
AFC
1. Colts
2. Bengals
3. Chargers
4. Dolphins
5. Ravens
6. Broncos

Ravens over Colts
Chargers over Bengals

NFC
1. Saints
2. Vikings
3. Eagles
4. Cardinals
5. Packers
6. Giants

Giants over Saints (Yes I know. Yes I know.)*
Vikings over Packers

SB: Vikings 27 Chargers 13

*- I think the Giants have a realistic chance of winning out and hoping that either Washington or Philly (or both) thwarts Dallas. Is it really that impossible for the Giants to do that and then beat a Philadelphia team they outplayed last week?**

**- To any person superstitious and downright nutty enough to be compared to myself, I assure you that I knocked on wood after writing all of that.