Week 12 Preview

Turkey Day: 1-2, 1-0 Bold

Season: 85-76, 24-20 Bold

TEXANS +4 over Colts

I continue to think that the Texans are a better team than the Colts. Indianapolis is a .500 team against the spread and have only the fourth highest point differential despite four games against the very weak NFC West. Houston, on the other hand, should have beaten the Colts in Indianapolis and looked like a Super Bowl contender in the Monday Night thriller against Tennessee. The Colts lasting undefeated this long reminds me of the Hawks lasting against the Celtics in the first round of the 2008 playoffs. It’s been time for two months for the Colts to lose a game. This is going to be a memorable game in years to come of the AFC South.

Browns +14 over BENGALS

Cleveland played Cincinnati very well last time these two teams squared off. I think the Browns can carry some momentum from last week’s performance against the Lions. This intra-state rivalry is rarely separated by a couple of touchdowns. The Browns will keep this close. Only once this season has this Cincinnati team won by more than two touchdowns.

EAGLES -9 over Redskins

It’s amazing to think about just how close Washington was last week from being only two games behind the NFC East lead. Unfortunately, that was not the case. Centered around the big play for a quick strike, Philadelphia’s offense is too explosive for Washington’s defense. There’s going to be an awful lot of pressure on the Redskins’ secondary in this one.

BILLS +4 over Dolphins

Last time these teams met, Ronnie Brown, Dick Jauron, and the game being in Florida put the Dolphins at a significant advantage over Buffalo. Each of those advantages is gone. Buffalo has played good first halves in back-to-back weeks, and I expect them to beat Miami on Sunday.

RAMS +4.5 over Seahawks

I expect Seattle to win this one by under a touchdown but really wouldn’t be surprised if Kyle Boller can lead St. Louis to a win. The NFL’s worst teams have made a lot of progress since the season began while Seattle’s offense has been an absolute mess for weeks.

Panthers +3 over JETS

Memo to Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan: You are leading a team in the National Football League. If you want to play tough against Bill Belichick, then you better expect him to try to not only beat you, but to try to humiliate you. You don’t have the right to be offended if you allow yourself to get into a situation where the other team has the game in their control as early as the Patriots did last Sunday. Ryan needs to start letting his team talk for him. While the Giants have dropped five of the last 6, the Jets have dropped 6 of 7. The only way the Jets stop Williams and Stewart without Kris Jenkins is with the help of Carolina’s coaching staff. So who knows?

FALCONS -12 over Buccaneers

Atlanta’s been waiting to get back to the Georgia dome, and Tampa Bay could be just what the doctor ordered. The Falcons have two tough home games after this one and need to demonstrate that they are not ready to fold the season yet. Tampa Bay is going to try to run the ball all day. This should be over by halftime.

Bears +11 over Vikings

If Chicago can stay close long enough in this one, they have a very real shot of upsetting the Vikings. The Bears have really been struggling but remain a much better team than their record. This is going to be a coaching struggle, and that will never bode well for the Vikings.

TITANS -2 over Cardinals

Could this really be the long-awaited Vince Young vs. Matt Leinart rematch? Probably not. I expect Warner to play, but I expect Tennessee to continue to look like they are one of the best teams in football right now. Since starting Young, the Titans have looked really, really good. While Arizona’s success passing the ball should continue against Tennessee’s average pass defense, I’d like to remind you that the Titans limited an even better passing team to 17 points last Monday.

49ERS -3 over Jaguars

I don’t think San Francisco is quite done. Jacksonville has an awfully long trip to get ready for this one. Maybe this will be the week that San Francisco shows its potential on both sides of the ball. Don’t look now, but Jacksonville is 6-2 in their last eight.

CHARGERS -13.5 over Chiefs

The best part about being in the AFC West is that you get to play against other teams in the AFC West. Kansas City has played some tough games at home, but the Chargers should blow them out of the water. Props to Chief’s coach Todd Haley. Despite Larry Johnson’s criticisms about his inexperience, he has done a remarkable job of keeping Chiefs games interesting. If he’s not careful, my tenth preseason prediction might end up not coming true after all… but I like my odds.

RAVENS +3 over Steelers…

But Dennis Dixon scares me. I feel like Baltimore could play him completely the wrong way. A Ravens win here can really put Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes in jeopardy, especially with some help around the conference. Baltimore’s had a lot of bad luck this season between dropped passes and awful special teams play. I expect the Ravens to outplay Pittsburgh in this one from start to finish.

SAINTS -1.5 over Patriots

I think the Saints’ defense matches up much better against New England’s passing attack than vice versa. As I mentioned in my recent article about the Giants' struggles, the Saints need to get Jeremy Shockey involved early and often. That opens up the whole field for Drew Brees. This game will show just how much better the Saints are than the Colts. Memo to Bill Belichick: Next time you run up the score against somebody, remember how much people loved seeing Stanford run it up against USC.

NYG 6-5

As the reeling 5-3 Giants prepared to face a resurgent San Diego Chargers team in a game that Tom Coughlin would ultimately gift-wrap for the Chargers in the final two minutes, talk out of the Giants locker room suggested that Big Blue viewed the upcoming game as “Their Super Bowl.” Maybe I read too much into it, but the description of the San Diego game as the Super Bowl was one of the most disheartening quotes that I had read this season. The Giants had been coming off of one of the worst losses to the rival Philadelphia Eagles in recent memory, and yet a game with little to no tie-breaking implications was all the sudden the Super Bowl? Granted, the Giants experienced a nine game long preseason that ended with them sitting atop the NFC East with a 5-0 record, but the need to hype the game against the Chargers highlighted to me just how lackadaisically the G-Men had been going through the 2009 campaign. To me, the problems plaguing the Giants are a product of 1. Injuries 2. Coaching and 3. (which goes back to 1 and 2) Attitude. For a season that doesn’t end in December, some of these problems must be fixed immediately.

The Giants have unfortunately been crippled by injuries throughout this entire season. Half the offense has been playing with diagnosed injuries, while almost nobody on defense has been playing at full strength. The Giants do not have a healthy running back better than Gartrell Johnson, who suffice to say is not championship-caliber. Our line play on both sides of the ball, the bread and butter for the last two years of success, has been mediocre at best and put us at a disadvantage, especially on almost every running play on offense and every passing play on defense.

I’ve made my frustration that has been accumulating with the Giants’ coaching staff no secret. Bill Sheridan has called a defense that often looks like an eleven-year-old Madden player who blitzes the kitchen sink on almost every down. On offense, we’ve developed probably the most predictable scheme in football, which I criticized in my preview of this year's offense, Week 3, Week 7, and Week 10. The Giants offense consists of a quick pass on 1^st down, usually a run on 2nd down, a pass on 3^rd down with anything longer than two yards to go for the 1^st (run otherwise), followed by a run on first down (if we get it) and consecutive passes after the run goes nowhere. Personally, I feel like the offensive line’s regression from a strength into a weakness begins with the defense knowing what to expect on virtually every play… and it’s no different on defense. Last night on Denver’s first sustained drive of the game, I remarked to my dad while the Broncos had the ball in field goal range facing a 2^nd and 5 that a screen pass to the right would kill our defense. Instead Denver picked up the first down by running the ball, but the play was called back for holding. On the next play, Orton hit Graham to the right on a screen that picked up 17 yards and put Denver in a very good position to take an early lead, a lead that would never be relinquished. If a 20 year old fan who hasn’t played a down of tackle football in seven years and hopes to see every play of the game once at full speed knows what is coming, doesn’t it seem plausible that the people whose job it is to stop whatever’s coming next might somehow have caught on to this pattern?

Finally, the Giants lack leadership on both sides of the ball. I came across this article recently which praised Jeremy Shockey for finally becoming a team player with the New Orleans Saints. While a nice story, I feel Pat Yasinskas completely misses the cause and effect. I view Shockey not too differently than I view Terrell Owens, an ultracompetitive winner who understands the necessity of utilizing his own capabilities in the recipe for success. This season the Saints have won against tough opponents by involving Shockey early and often. In Week 2 against Philadelphia, Shockey caught three passes on the first drive to set the tone. Week 6 against the then undefeated Giants, Shockey caught four balls for 37 yards and a score all in the first half. Against Miami, the Saints were down 24-3 before Shockey’s first catch; they won the game and scored on every drive Shockey caught a ball. To date, Shockey has accumulated 28 of his 39 catches in the first half. Of his 461 yards, 278 have come in the first half (96 second-half yards came in the Miami game in which the Saints offense was dormant during the first half). What’s more, all three of Shockey’s touchdowns this season have come in the first half. Shockey hasn’t complained this year because the Saints have run a successful offense, not because he has matured. He’s thriving, and the team is thriving. As he did in New York, he’s been a presence in the middle that has forced opposing defenses to leave Wide Receivers in man coverage, a recipe for Drew Brees to succeed every time. Shockey wanted to go to the Saints because he knew Sean Payton understands how to get a defense on their heels, an idea Kevin Gilbride has demonstrated zero signs of understanding.

Owens really isn’t much different. In Philadelphia, he killed Donovan McNabb after McNabb failed the team at the end, but imagine putting your own long-term health at risk, working your ass off, and defying all medical expectations for a shot to play in the Super Bowl. Owens did just that and caught nine passes for 122 yards. In the end, quarterback Donovan McNabb’s fatigue stopped Philadelphia from being able to score with enough time left to mount a realistic comeback after a failed onside kick. T.O. has been one of the best competitors the league has seen in this decade. He expects just as much from his teammates and coaches and isn’t afraid to ruffle some feathers when things aren’t going well. It’s also worth mentioning that Owens had been succeeding in Dallas, even with a mediocre quarterback up until Tony Sparano, a coach of the year candidate in my opinion, stopped calling the plays.

Let’s now look at Kevin Boss, one of the best all purpose tight ends in football although with admittedly slightly less potential than Owens and Shockey. Since inheriting Shockey’s job, Boss has been nothing short of a warrior. He kills himself to make a play on every ball and is one heck of a run-blocker. He deserved much of the credit for both the running game and the offensive line’s effectiveness last season. Gilbride’s offense has completely mishandled Kevin Boss and the lack of looks are really the only thing that is keeping him from a well-deserved Pro Bowl bid. He provides the big target for Eli that I’d hoped to see from Ramses Barden (WHERE IS HE?) Boss has failed the Giants by being too much of what the media sees as “a team player.” He’s made the most of every opportunity he’s been given but hasn’t demanded the looks that he and the team needs to be at its best. Just think about how much better every single part of the offense can be when defenses realize just how dangerous the Manning to Boss combination is. Even if this conversation doesn’t happen through Drew Rosenhaus and the media, Boss needs to become a bigger part of the offense. He needs to become a leader and one of the most prolific tight ends as the regular season comes to its conclusion, he’s got the potential- all he needs is the chance.

Eli Manning has been struggling since the 5-0 beginning of the season. While he has been throwing some of the prettiest passes downfield, he has made mistake after mistake around the line of scrimmage. Last night, a miscommunication after a successful play to open the game forced the Giants to burn a timeout. More often than not, he misses running backs on screens. When Denver dropped up to 8 into coverage last night and still was able to apply pressure, Eli should’ve tucked the ball and made a play with his feet- look at all the success the Titans have had with their passing game since defenses were forced to respect the quarterback’s legs. But while Eli hasn’t been terrific, the Giants’ slide is really not his fault.

The Giants desperately need a new play-calling approach. I’ve called for Gilbride to be fired since the middle of last year and continue to insist that last year’s down the stretch collapse can be mainly attributed to him. The man lost out on a coaching vacancy to Tom Cable. That said, I feel like I owe Gilbride some credit. He’s made progress this season as a play-caller but deserves a lot of credit for developing Eli Manning into an elite downfield passer. I attribute Gilbride with correcting Eli’s early career problems under-throwing receivers. That being said, he is the offensive coordinator of an offense that did not look remotely coordinated last night.

Right now, someone needs to step up. The ten day rest leading up to the Dallas game really can’t hurt. 9-7 is not going to cut it this season given the number of atrocious teams in the league. The Giants have back to back home games against Dallas and Philadelphia, followed by a game at Washington. If this isn’t motivation to have the team playing with some fire, then the season is already over. On the other hand, if we can put together some sort of players-only meeting and come out attacking Dallas at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, then the NFC East is within Big Blue’s grasp. We’re not healthy, we’re not well-coached, and we’re not playing with the swagger and the spunk that we’ve had for the 113 weeks leading up to last night (for those counting at home that brings us back to halftime of Week 3 of the 2007 season). You can see it starting at the line of scrimmage on almost every play. Three intradivision wins will virtually guarantee a playoff birth. It’s the regular season, but if we don’t win here than there won’t be any such thing as “our Super Bowl,” although the choke job against San Diego could sum up the season very well.

Final Note: Lots of fans thought Sinorice Moss was going to be cut this preseason because he wasn't as explosive a threat as the other young Giants WRs. Moss ended the preseason with 2 touchdown catches against New England. Since then, he has a touchdown against Tampa Bay but has been a healthy scratch for most of the season. Please give him a chance to show what he can do!

Thanksgiving Special

For those of you last week who took my advice on the Ravens game, I sincerely hope you waited until the spread had risen to 3. If you did, then my Sunday picks were a sexy 12-2 including 4-0 on my bold picks, but reality is reality- I went 11-5 last week and 3-1 on my bold picks bringing me to 84-74 overall and 23-20 on the bold picks so far this season.

I'd like to wish everybody a Happy Thanksgiving. Now for a few special people I'd like to thank.

My parents, especially my dad- not only did my dad get me started as a football fan, but this blog would never be possible if it weren't for everything he's given and taught me.

The Giants' 17-14 Super Bowl Win over New England- I've had the upper hand in trash-talking against every Massachusetts friend ever since that glorious, glorious night. Thank you Football Gods.

The Number 27- If the New York Giants had a mascot, he would look a lot like #27, Brandon Jacobs. Past that, the Yankees just won their 27th world series. Multiple family members grew up on #27 of various streets and my grandfather from World War II came home on a ship numbered 27. The number has been in the family for generations... until I was born on February 7, 1989. The sum of the digits in the year is 27. February 7 equates to 2-7. This year the Super Bowl is on February 7, as I turn 21. I'll stop now to save karma points.

All of the readers and commenters on the blog both on the website and off- You guys give me motivation to keep writing.

Carol Ann, Leigh, and Stef- haven't met you, but thanks... A LOT

Bill Simmons- You gave me motivation to start writing.

My friends and family and the fact that we are in good health.

Finally, to everyone like the Tuohy family featured in The Blind Side. For those of you who have made a difference in someone's life, especially those of you unrewarded for doing that, you make the world a better place.

Now for the picks

LIONS +12.5 over Packers
With all the talk about whether or not Detroit is still worthy of hosting a Thanksgiving game, I feel like a fire has been lit under several Lions players. They're coming off a great comeback win over a Browns team that played one of their best games of the season. Compare that to Green Bay who let San Francisco almost sneak away with a game that should've been over at halftime. I think Green Bay comes out flat in this one.

COWBOYS -13.5 over Raiders
Oakland has won three games this season. After beating Kansas City, the Raiders laid an egg at home against Denver and lost by 20. After beating Philadelphia, the Raiders laid a bigger egg at home and lost 38-0 against a Jets team minus Kris Jenkins that gave the Jets their only win since September. Tom Cable is not the coach to teach a team how to handle prosperity, especially on a short week. Expect lots of penalties with Cable and Phillips on the sidelines.

Giants -6 over BRONCOS
May the Kurse of Kern kontinue! Broncos and Titans are a combined 10-0 (Against The Spread and straight up) with Brett Kern and a dismal 0-10 (ATS and SU) without him. Kevin Gilbride called his best game of the year last week for the Giants although Bill Sheridan is still making it too easy. I'd much rather see the Giants keep 7 back in coverage and give the deepest and most dangerous D-Line in the league a couple more seconds to get to Kyle Orton. It will work. I'm waiting to see it happen. I'd also like to inform those of you who think I'm biased by ranking the Giants 4th, let me remind you that the Giants have been the underdog according to the Vegas point spread only twice, against Dallas and New Orleans. Both games were on the road; adjusting to a neutral field would have made the Giants one point favorites in each. This team is never more than a couple breaks away from a solid win, against anybody.

Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Week 11 Picks

Week 11 Picks: The Way Too Much Work for Details Edition

Week 10: 6-8-1, 3-1 Bold
Thursday Night: 0-1
Season: 74-70, 21-20 Bold

Bills +9 over JAGUARS
Dick Jauron needed to go a long time ago.

CHIEFS +10 over Steelers
Kansas City has been playing well, and Pittsburgh has a few injuries on defense.

RAVENS +1.5 over Colts
I wish this pick could count for 10 picks. Easiest pick of the week.

VIKINGS -11 over Seahawks
Vikings have been playing really well; don’t expect Seattle to compete.

GIANTS -6.5 over Falcons
As the line increases my confidence decreases (weird, I know). Hate to say it, but I think Antonio Pierce’s injury is a blessing in disguise for the Giants. Provides the right motivation for some guys to really step it up. Big test.

Saints -11 over BUCS
Don’t think I haven’t noticed how good Tampa Bay has looked since starting Josh Freeman. Don’t think New Orleans hasn’t noticed either.

Browns +3.5 over LIONS
Browns defense has been looking good and Rams game taught me never to lay points with the Lions.

49ers +6.5 over PACKERS
I like San Francisco’s team too much to lay this spread against them. Green Bay is a much better underdog than favorite.

Redskins +11 over COWBOYS
This could be that game that is punctuated at the end by a Dallas “eff-you” touchdown to seal the deal for the guys in Vegas... but it could also be another Romo choke job down the stretch against an NFC East opponent. Could Washington really put two wins together?

RAMS +9.5 over Cardinals
Upset special.

Jets +11 over Patriots
I don’t expect the Patriots to lose, but I think the Jets aren’t as bad as they’ve been playing recently.

RAIDERS +9.5 over Bengals
Let’s see if Bruce Gradkowski can let Darrius Heyword-Bey show fans why Al Davis drafted him.

Chargers -4 over BRONCOS
It's midnight Cinderella.

Eagles -3 over BEARS
I see the Eagles winning this one by 3, so this is my least confident pick.

TEXANS -4.5 over Titans
Weirdest game of the week. The two best teams right now in the AFC South (Indy would not beat either team on a neutral field). Speaking of which, the Colts sure are lucky they get their two toughest games to date against teams coming off back to back Monday night games (Baltimore this week, Houston next week).

Midseason Awards and Power Rankings

Each of the following awards are dedicated either to someone’s 2008 season or some recent news.

Corey Webster Most Improved Award
1. Cedric Benson
2. Steve Smith (NYG)
3. Sidney Rice
4. Vernon Davis
5. Kyle Orton

HM: Elvis Dumervil

LaDainian Tomlinson Most Regressed Award
1. Steve Slaton
2. Kerry Collins
3. Matt Forte
4. Jake Delhomme
5. Jason Elam

HM: Le’Ron McClain
HM: Derek Anderson

Terrell Owens (Philadelphia Version) Comeback Player Award
1. Carson Palmer
2. Tom Brady
3. Reggie Bush
4. Brett Favre
5. Osi Umenyiora

Dick Jauron Worst Employed Coach Award
1. Wade Phillips
2. Tom Cable
3. Mike McCarthy
4. Tom Coughlin
5. Eric Mangini

HM: Raheem Morris
HM: Norv Turner

Pre-2008 Bill Belichick Best Coach Award
1. Marvin Lewis
2. Josh McDaniels
3. Sean Payton
4. Tony Sparano
5. Mike Smith

HM: Steve Spagnuolo
HM: Gary Kubiak

Chris Johnson Rookie of the Year Award
1. Clay Matthews (GB)
2. Percy Harvin (Min)
3. Beanie Wells (Ari)
4. Josh Freeman (TB)
5. Jeremy Maclin (Phi)

Nnadmi Asomugha Hidden Gem Award (Guy not getting credit for his play)
1. Aubrayo Franklin, SF
2. Curtis Lofton, Atl
3. Darrelle Revis, NYJ
4. David Garrard, Jax
5. Shaun Rogers, Cle

Postseason Larry Fitzgerald MVP Award
1. Peyton Manning
2. Matt Schaub
3. Adrian Peterson
4. Darren Sharper
5. Chris Johnson

HM: DeAngelo Williams
HM: Brett Favre

Memphis Kansas Championship Game that never happened Game of the Year Award
1. Patriots 34 Colts 35
2. 49ers 24 Vikings 27
3. Steelers 20 Bengals 23
4. Giants 33 Cowboys 31
5. Vikings 38 Packers 26

HM: Vikings 17 Steelers 27

And now…

Power Rankings
32. Cleveland Browns
31. Detroit Lions
30. St. Louis Rams
29. Oakland Raiders
28. Kansas City Chiefs
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
26. Seattle Seahawks
25. Buffalo Bills
24. Washington Redskins
23. Carolina Panthers
22. Miami Dolphins
21. Jacksonville Jaguars
20. Chicago Bears
19. New York Jets
18. Denver Broncos
17. Tennessee Titans
16. San Francisco 49ers
15. Arizona Cardinals
14. Atlanta Falcons
13. Dallas Cowboys
12. Green Bay Packers
11. Pittsburgh Steelers
10. San Diego Chargers
9. Indianapolis Colts
8. Houston Texans
7. Philadelphia Eagles
6. Baltimore Ravens
5. Cincinnati Bengals
4. New York Giants
3. New England Patriots
2. New Orleans Saints
1. Minnesota Vikings

These Power Rankings reflect how good I think these teams can be at full potential (60% weight) and how good these teams can be week in and week out (40% weight).

Ten Cents on Week 10

Ten Cents on Week 10

1. Big Weekend for Big Blue
The New York Giants had their best week since Lawrence Tynes’s field goal in the closing seconds of the Week 2 game in Dallas. Losses by Atlanta, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Dallas once again gave the Giants control of their own destiny in the NFC East Divisional race and the NFC Wild Card race. What’s more, Washington appears to be clicking at the perfect time for the Giants, just before the Skins head to Dallas. The Giants got some much needed rest and should come out of their bye week with the healthiest defense they’ve had since losing Kenny Phillips. Ross, Canty, Boley, and Tuck will be able to make the defense more dangerous and hopefully give Bill Sheridan a chance to send in some different looks against Matt Ryan.

2. Don’t forget Carolina
The Carolina Panthers are 4-2 since their bye week with three consecutive winnable games ahead of them. It is very conceivable that the Panthers could be 7-5 heading into the toughest stretch any team will face this season (@NE, vs. Min, @NYG, vs. NO). I expect the Panthers to beat New Orleans Week 17 and most likely end the Jake Delhomme era on a relatively high note, given the way the season started.

3. AFC WOWth
A 3-0 weekend by the AFC South teams leaves little doubt as to which division is the deepest in the NFL. While the NFC East still has the most talent in the league, the abysmal coaching in the division (Really? Jim Zorn may be the best four quarter coach in the division???) has made it too difficult for me to insist that the NFC East is the toughest division in football anymore. On the other hand, the AFC South has an overrated Colts team that seems to get luckier by the week, a Top 5 passing attack in Houston, a Jacksonville Jaguars team that had the sneakiest climb over .500 of the season, and a resurgent Titans team with a quarterback who has somehow been labeled a bust despite being 21-11 as a starter with the Titans. Another interesting fact: since the Titans drafted Young, there have been clear turning points in their seasons. In 2006, the Titans rebounded from an 0-5 start to finish 8-8. In 2007, the Titans fell from a 6-2 start, down to 7-6, before winning three straight (including a game against the Jim Sorgi led Colts) to make the playoffs at 10-6. Last year, we all remember the Titans’ 10-0 start, before they lost four of their next seven including the home playoff game against Baltimore. It looks like this year will not be an exception.

4. The Least Defensible Coaching Decision of the Year...
Week 10 featured the worst coaching blunder of the year, and it didn’t come in the Pats Colts game. Mike McCarthy made an absolute idiot of himself in Green Bay’s victory over Dallas. Not only were Green Bay and Dallas completely undisciplined in each racking up double digit numbers of penalties, but McCarthy absolutely squandered his last challenge in a situation that had little-to-no chance of having the play overturned and that had little-to-no benefit of the play being reversed. With the Packers leading 3-0, Aaron Rodgers completed a 3rd down pass to Jordy Nelson, whose knee was down about one foot from the Cowboys’ goal line. McCarthy thought about the situation and decided that it was less likely that Green Bay could move a foot on four plays than it was that Jeff Triplette’s crew would make another mistake in the Cowboys’ favor which Green Bay would need to challenge. The rest goes without saying. Green Bay lost the challenge, scored on Aaron Rodgers’s sneak on first down, and ultimately threw another challenge flag up 17-0 two possessions later- in a situation which the play actually may have been overturned. Luckily, Charles Woodson sealed the game with an end zone interception. McCarthy looked like an out-of-place idiot in this entire sequence. The Packers need to let him go, as soon as this week. They should be much better.

5. Brooms out in Cincinnati
I predicted that Cincinnati would make the playoffs in my NFL Preview. I never imagined they’d sweep both Baltimore and Pittsburgh to do so. It looks like there is going to be an odd man out between the Bengals, Ravens, and Steelers, probably the three top teams in the AFC. Before Patriots fans remind me that Baltimore lost to New England, let’s remember that that game was in New England and also that Baltimore beat the Broncos 30-7 and never lost to the Jets. Marvin Lewis deserves a ton of credit for the resurgent Bengals, and Chad Ochocinco’s checkbook has paid for a lot of the fun in the NFL over the past few weeks.

6. “THEY ARE WHO HE THOUGHT THEY WERE”
For the first six weeks, I insisted that the Broncos and the Colts were beneficiaries of weak opponents or opponents giving a weak performance. Most odds-makers agreed with my assessment of the Broncos and agreed that their wins over Dallas, New England, and San Diego were upsets. The Chargers are once again the clear-cut favorite to win the AFC West.
Indianapolis, on the other hand, was the #1 ranked team by ESPN’s power rankings ever since Baltimore’s first loss. The Colts are 9-0; nobody can take that away from them, but they are far from the juggernaut that many experts have considered them. Five of their nine games have been decided by four points or less. The others: three NFC West opponents and the Titans before their renaissance. Don’t get fooled by the Colts. Even though he has still been playing better than any other quarterback, Peyton Manning has regressed from his astounding start back to a level of mere mortals. Baltimore will make mincemeat of Indianapolis next week, especially with the injury problems now plaguing their secondary.

7. Beware Betting against Brett Kern
Despite utterly average stats, the one player who remains undefeated against the spread has been punter Brett Kern, waived by the then 6-0 Denver Broncos and signed by the then 0-6 Tennessee Titans. Since then, Denver is 0-3 against the spread and in their games themselves, while the Titans have improved from 0-6 (in general and against the spread) to 3-0 (ditto). If this ever happened with a player at a skill position on offense, or a middle linebacker or defensive end, a lot more chatter would discuss this phenomenon. I view this as a coincidence, because football is a team sport, but Brett Kern may be the best locker room guy in the NFL

8. Rebirth of Parity
While the Browns have been relentless in their pursuit of the #32 spot in the Power Rankings, the Bucs, Rams, Chiefs, Raiders, Redskins, and Bills have leapfrogged the Lions back into the category of respectability. Tonight sets up a huge trap game for the Ravens, who have to be more focused about their upcoming game against Indianapolis than they are about their game tonight against Brady Quinn and the Jets’ cast-offs. Beware the backdoor cover tonight. Quinn will be on a mission. This game has choke written all over it. This is a true test for John Harbaugh who should beat Mangini’s Browns by 20.
That said, I feel George Kokonis was fired very prematurely. He inherited a disaster and tried to stockpile draft picks and build a contender in years to come rather than go the route of say a Vinny Cerrato or Isiah Thomas. Mangini should’ve been fired long before Kokonis.

9. Belichick blows his biggest lead
I’ve mentioned that I felt Bill Belichick has lost his edge over the past two seasons and feel that last night’s blown lead against the Colts testifies to that very well. The Patriots lost a 17 point fourth quarter lead and Belichick made some terrible decisions on the Patriots’ last drive that could’ve put the game away. He faced a decision to either play for the first down and win the game or to put the fate of the game in the hands of Peyton Manning and trust his defense to stop the Colts from completing the two minute drill. After burning a timeout before the drive even began, it appeared he chose the latter.
On first down, he forced the Colts to burn a timeout after a Kevin Faulk draw went nowhere. That was a bread and butter call that the Bill Belichick of old would never have made. Since acquiring Moss and Welker, the Patriots’ offense has been defined by quick slants. If you’re going to trust your quarterback to complete a pass on 4th and 2, then you better damn well be ready to trust him to complete a pass on first down. I have no qualms with the call on second down- a smart high percentage pass to Welker that worked. Timeout #2 by the Colts. Now, with eight seconds before the two minute warning, Belichick needed to make the decision again on whether to go for the win or to take time off the clock and put pressure on Peyton. 3rd and 2, what do you do?
The only time I witnessed the 2007 Patriots live, they cemented their perfect regular season against a Giants team that outplayed them in the Meadowlands. That game, on the Patriots’ very first offensive possession, Brady hit Moss for a five yard gain to pick up a first down on 4th and 2. The play before, Kevin Faulk picked up an eight yard gain because the defense (and crowd) was too concerned with stopping Moss and Welker. That game, the Patriots thrived with passes to Welker and Faulk on 3rd downs (and a couple lucky breaks with some key penalties)… but here’s the thing: defenses now expect Faulk to be a first look for Brady.
So 3rd and 2, Belichick dials up the same play looking for a quick pass to Welker. That was the blunder of the game. If you’re in two down territory, that’s the play you try to run it with Faulk up the middle or look at Moss or Edelman down the field. Worst case scenario? Nobody’s open, and Brady tries to pick up the first down with his feet. Assuming he fails (as he probably would have), the clock ticks down past the 2 minute warning and Peyton has only one timeout to pick up 70 yards in under two minutes. Brady threw a bad pass and Belichick made yet another bad decision by burning the Patriots’ final timeout, essentially giving his offense zero chance of winning if the Colts had managed to score. Then came 4th down: Faulk cuts his route too soon, Brady hesitates before throwing the ball, Bullitt makes the play of the game by forcing Faulk back behind the line. Belichick weighed his options out on 4th down and decided that the 40 yards a punt would’ve gained wasn’t worth the chance to end the game right there. He dialed up a play that had worked for them before, but Brady and Faulk were not synchronized enough for the first down. It was inconceivable to me that the booth failed to review the spot, but what do I know? After all, as I wrote, most leagues want us to believe that their officiating is perfect.
Belichick made the right call on second down and fourth down. Given that the Patriots lost, he can never get the credit for making the call so few coaches would have made. He defied conventional wisdom even though the Colts, instead of rushing to score when they took over on downs, tried to milk the clock as long as possible. Had they faced a 70 yard field, there’s really no reason to think Manning would have failed. Monday night, in Indianapolis? There’s a reason that unlucky 13 is the most dangerous lead a team can hold late in the game. It puts just enough pressure on the other team to score two quick touchdowns and win the game. I place the blame for the Patriots loss squarely on Brady’s shoulders. He threw a bad pass on 3rd down and hesitated on 4th down. Manning would never have made those mistakes.

10. What’s new this week on the blog?
Mideseason awards. I’m planning Top 5s in:

MVP, Comeback Player, Most Improved, Most Regressed, Coach of the Year, Worst Coach of the Year, Rookie of the Year, and Game of the Year. Also, we’re about ready for a new Power Rankings and it’s about time to compare my Week 2 Power Rankings and ESPN’s to their new rankings… or maybe I’ll wait until Baltimore dismantles Indianapolis next week.

Thanks for reading, if there’s anything else you want me to add for my midseason awards, let me know either by commenting on the blog or at http://twitter.com/alisberg


Late Update: PANTHERS -3 over Dolphins

Week 10 Picks

Week 9: 4-9, 1-3 Bold
Week 10: 1-0 so far
Season: 68-61, 17-18 Bold

JETS -7 over Jaguars

I like the Jets on both sides of the ball in this one. If Rex Ryan can devise a plan to force David Garrard to get the ball down the field on the Jets, Jacksonville will be in serious trouble. Revis should neutralize Mike Sims-Walker. Even with the substantial loss of Kris Jenkins, I like the Jets to get a big win here and stay alive in the wild card chase.

Broncos -3.5 over REDSKINS

A very out of character pick considering I think the Broncos are still overrated while the Redskins (by default considering how bad everyone thinks they are) are overrated. The Redskins really don’t have any fire anymore; look at the way the team responded when DeAngelo Hall was surrounded on the Falcons sideline. The Atlanta coaches had their players backs while even the commentators noticed that the Redskins ignored Hall. That said, I think Washington needs a 9+ play drive to open up the game, get some points on the board, and play with a lead to protect. Do you see that coming? Denver’s D-Line is going to hound Jason Campbell all day. This is a game where a Washington win can get their players behind Zorn and maybe even get him enough momentum to finish around 7-9 and keep his job, but at this point, it’s already too late. Zorn has lost the Redskins.

Bengals +7 over STEELERS

Cincinnati keeps getting better every week. I think that this game comes down to turnovers and expect that Roethlisberger will throw at least a couple of picks. I’d love the Bengals to come out throwing on a Pittsburgh defense that is on short rest and going to key in on neutralizing comeback player of the year candidate, Cedric Benson. On the other side of the ball, I feel that Pittsburgh’s offense isn’t as good as the Baltimore offense that was held scoreless by three quarters. If Cincinnati can keep Pittsburgh’s 3rd down conversions anywhere near the Ravens last week (1/10), the Bengals can fasten their seat belts into the driver’s seat of the AFC North race. That’s a lot of “ifs”, but Cincinnati has been very impressive, way too impressive to pass up seven points.

Bills +7 over TITANS

I’m definitely leaning over 50/50 that the Titans will win this one straight up but lack the confidence to lay seven against a Bills team that should be getting Trent Edwards back. I think Tennessee’s defense is exactly the type of opponent the Bills passing attack needs to get going. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo will be able to afford to bring an eighth guy into the box to stop Chris Johnson and allow Vince Young to try to beat them downfield. This is a textbook matchup that the Bills can definitely win. If Buffalo had almost any other coach, I’d take them to win straight up.

17 + Lions over VIKINGS

Because this pick has nothing to do with the game, only the spread. Detroit’s going to put together one solid half that makes everybody think, “Hey, maybe these Lions are putting something together” but one half in which Minnesota scores twice in 2:00 and reminds everyone how silly that idea really is. I penciled this game in as picking the Vikings but got a queasy feeling in my stomach when I realized that I’d be starting out a game down 17 points and with Brad Childress. I doubt the Vikings play this one 100%.

Saints -14 over RAMS

I can’t understand this spread being so low and am thus scared of it. I’d feel a lot more comfortable taking New Orleans if Vegas was offering a thirty point spread here. I’m picking Saints 24 Rams 3… by the end of the first quarter (kind of).

PANTHERS +2 over Falcons

The Panthers have been making strides since their awful start. Carolina has been playing the way I’d been suggesting they start playing. Williams is right up there with Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, and Chris Johnson as the scariest running back in football. I hesitate to add Benson to that list, because I feel that Jackson, Johnson, and Williams would do even better than Benson with Carson Palmer keeping the defense spaced out. My knuckles are pounding the wood on my desk as I add that home teams are 7-1 in Falcons games.

DOLPHINS -10 over Bucs

I don’t like picking either team in this matchup, because Josh Freeman will not have the same success that he had last week and because that I couldn’t advertise this blog in good conscience if I bet on Tampa Bay’s defense to stop anybody, let alone the Dolphins’ Wildcat formation. How many rushing yards will Miami get? 200? 250?

RAIDERS -2 over Chiefs

This is despite Kansas City’s momentum that may carry over from the 4th quarter against Jacksonville. Oakland is just a better team than KC. Darren McFadden and Robert Gallery returning to Oakland’s offense definitely won’t hurt. Chambers will help KC more than last week, especially since Nnamdi Asomugha should be on Dwayne Bowe.

Seahawks +9 over CARDINALS

Please, Coach Mora, please listen to TJ Houshmendzadeh. It’s really not a bad idea to give him the ball, early and often. Julius Jones will be able to run all over the Cardinals if Hasselbeck gets going early. Please, Coach, please.

Eagles -1 over CHARGERS

Philadelphia’s offense is way too dangerous for San Diego’s defense, especially with the return of Brian Westbrook. I expect this to be a three touchdown, two interception contest for Donovan McNabb. The Chargers got off easy last week by playing against a defensive gameplan that played them with less variety than Lance Reddick’s acting roles. (Inhale, exhale, inhale, exhale… okay I’m changing the subject). I do expect Tomlinson to have his best game to date this year and would be very surprised if the game doesn’t go over the 47 point over/under. San Diego lost me as a true believer a couple weeks ago, but this is the game that they could win me back.

Random side note: Does anybody else feel weird to hear “Donovan McNabb”? There are some first name quarterbacks: “Peyton, Eli, Ben, Drew” and the occasional exasperated “JaMarcus!” There are some quarterbacks whose first name would never be used- I’ll include last names when I feel it’s necessary, “David (Garrard), Kyle, Trent (for obvious reasons), Alex (Smith), Jason (Campbell), Jay (Cutler)” the list goes on. Then there are the guys whose first and last name are inseparable, “Brett Favre, Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner (only when Warner’s being mentioned on a list, otherwise ‘Warner’ suffices), Tom Brady, Matt Schaub” et cetera, et cetera. I feel like McNabb moved from the third group a while ago and can’t really remember when… anyways

PACKERS +3 over Cowboys

Attention Green Bay! Your season is NOT over. The Packers have lost so far this year to the Bengals, Vikings (twice), and now the Bucs. Everyone has a bad week where they don’t show up. The Cowboys provide the perfect opponent for Green Bay to face: a poorly coached, undisciplined team that will give Green Bay second and third chances with penalties. Romo in Lambeau? Take the Packers.

Patriots +3 over COLTS

This is a battle of the two teams whose quarterbacks are unquestionably the faces of their franchise. The Manning or Brady debate isn’t even close in my opinion. Brady can’t hold a candle next to what Manning’s done with limited talent. The Colts finally have a defense that is better than their offense, but they are about to be exposed. If you were planning on taking a futures bet against the Colts doing well in the playoffs, this is the time. They were lucky to scrape by against Houston and will not do it again. This game begins a three game losing streak for Indy.

Ravens -11 over BROWNS

Baltimore is one of the best teams; Cleveland is one of the worst. If there were a game for Cleveland’s team to come together behind Eric Mangini, this would be it… but I don’t see that happening. Baltimore has had a brutal schedule this season, and I expect them to make a huge statement against Cleveland that they still belong at the top. One red flag, however coach John Harbaugh isn’t stupid. He understands the benefits of resting his starters if the Ravens get an early start with a huge game next week on short rest against Indianapolis. It’s a shame that this is our Monday night game though... bummer.

Catching Our Breath Part III

The way overdue Part III

Reminder, these rankings were last updated after Week 6. A lot has changed. Please enjoy.

16. San Diego Chargers

What I thought: San Diego was loaded with talent in a division where talent is hard to come by. Offensively, I projected the Chargers to be pretty much just as effective as they were in 2008. Defensively, I’d thought Shawn Merriman would provide a huge boost from last season, enough to bring them back up to 2007 status. Coasting through an easy division, I suspected San Diego could win a couple games in January with a healthy postseason roster, just like Arizona did last year.

What I think: It truly is a shame that San Diego hasn’t found a way to utilize Chris Chambers. Their offense has far too many weapons for this team to be ranked twelfth in yards per game, especially with such a soft schedule. Moreover, somebody needs to remind San Diego that they have someone on the roster with a career passer rating of 154.4 who hasn’t thrown a pass since 2007, LaDainian Tomlinson. Even an incomplete pass by Tomlinson would force defensive backs to give him a little more room at the line. I’m shocked that nobody else even brings this up anymore. Defensively, San Diego is just not as good as they need to be to remain competitive against the best teams. Basically, Norv Turner has crippled San Diego in the way I expected Brad Childress to cripple Minnesota. They’ve yet to beat anyone over .500; I’d be surprised if San Diego makes the playoffs, barring a Denver collapse down the stretch.

Alisberg Evaluation: C-

Who are they? Cosmo Kramer, Seinfeld. The Chargers have what it takes to be successful, but somehow remain disheveled and disorganized. They continue to try borderline manic ideas only to end up failing. The Chargers have some tough games ahead, but they also have some very easy games ahead. If they can split games against the Giants and Eagles before beating Denver, San Diego will regain status as the favorite to win the AFC West once again.

15. Cincinnati Bengals

What I thought: The Bengals would rebound from a dismal 2008 campaign and get out to a strong enough start to edge Pittsburgh for a Wild Card spot. The rejuvenated offense with the return of Carson Palmer would open some holes up for Cedric Benson and allow Cincinnati to be one of the best teams in the league against the spread. I believed Cincinnati would be very competitive in a very competitive division.

What I think: The tipped ball to Brandon Stokley infuriated me; it gave a win to a team I believed would struggle and it gave a sleeper pick a potentially season derailing loss. It was not the case. Cincinnati rebounded by winning four straight games including a game against the defending Super Bowl Champions and three other games on the road, including two potential playoff teams. On a side note, I have correctly picked 6 consecutive Bengals games. TJ Houshmandzadeh’s (spelled that right first try) departure has been a non-issue, and the holdout of Andre Smith as well as legal issues as they had in previous seasons have been forgotten with Cincinnati’s great start. The Bengals are not a top 8 team, but they can sure win games.

Alisberg Evaluation: A+

Who are they? Rocky Balboa Rocky. It’s perfect. They fight down to the wire. They lost the first game due to misfortune (the judges gave Apollo Creed the decision in the original move) and came back with a vengeance, the eye of the black and orange striped tiger… No matter what the records indicate, the Bengals are not the best team in their division, but may very well win it. Can anyone actually tell me that Rocky was a better fighter than Drago? After all, they are 3-0 against division opponents, including a win in Baltimore, against the best team in the division.

14. Pittsburgh Steelers

What I thought: The defending champions were by no means the best team last season and would be worse this year. Troy Polamalu, after all, was on the Madden cover. A vicious division, games against Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota, and San Diego would be enough to keep them out of the playoffs, or so I thought.

What I think: Ben Roethlisberger has made some big strides this season, which I credit to Mike Tomlin doing one heck of a job in getting the most out of his personnel. Never-the-less, I’d be a fool to suggest that the Madden Curse means nothing, as irrational as that sounds. Pittsburgh has too many hard games left for me to abandon my preseason prediction. I EXPECT Pittsburgh to struggle with injuries down the stretch and ultimately be the best AFC team to miss the playoffs.

Alisberg Evaluation: B

Who are they: Teddy KGB, Rounders. The Steelers entered the season as the intimidating favorite, despite being not that much better than the rest of the field (in my opinion as a card player, KGB is actually a VERY weak player.) To play them on their home field, people must travel to a neighborhood to which nobody really wants to go (if you’ve spent the last nine months begging for a trip to Pittsburgh, please let me know and I will stand corrected). Steeler football is enforced by physical play, not too much unlike KGB’s card game. The biggest difference between the Steelers and Rounders? John Malkovich can’t quite pull off the aviators look like Mike Tomlin.

13. Dallas Cowboys Vinny Chase, Entourage

What I thought: Similar to San Diego, Dallas’s weaknesses at coaching would impede their plethora of talent on both sides of the ball. The departure of volatile receiver Terrell Owens would hurt the rushing game more than the passing game. Even with a powerful offensive line and several weapons on offense, Tony Romo would continue to hold the Cowboys back, so much so that they would not make the playoffs with him at quarterback. Jason Garrett is an overrated coordinator. Defensively, Dallas would also take a step back. Despite being one of the most dangerous teams in the league, Dallas would be an odd man out, come January in the brutal NFC East.

What I think: Dallas still has yet to perform up to potential, but has cruised to easy wins over the last few weeks. The Cowboys are not the most resilient team; they still commit stupid penalties which hurt them. I still feel that TO opened up the running game, Romo’s worse than Kitna, and Dallas’s defense isn’t as good as it was in 2007 when they ultimately disappointed all their fans when they were upset by the Giants in the playoffs. Dallas is good. They can beat any team, but they will not win the NFC East.

Alisberg Evaluation: A-

Who are they: Vinny Chase (Season 4), Entourage. This has a lot to do with Jerry Jones’s mentality running the team. Dallas has potential to be one of the best. Yet instead of bringing in a seasoned veteran who can make the right decisions to advance the team to the top, he relies on a familiar face whom he trusts. Rather than running the ball (or taking roles in less than stellar movies) and making their presence felt, the Cowboys have relied far too much on Tony Romo’s arm. As Vince insisted on Medellin which ultimately took him off the A-List, Jones insists on Romo and Phillips. They won’t continue to succeed playing the way they are, not against better teams. Even though signs are up, Dallas will never win the big one with Romo and Phillips.

12. Houston Texans

What I thought: This year the Texans would take the next step, and cement themselves as the best team in the AFC South. Slaton would build off of a stellar rookie campaign while a healthy Matt Schaub with a star receiver and a dangerous TE would make Houston one of the most dangerous offenses in football. Defensively, Houston would be strong enough for a great regular season, but a short-lived postseason.

What I think: Houston is the better of the two teams in Texas. I was shocked in Week 1 when the Jets manhandled the Texans, but have been very pleased to see Houston come together in the weeks since. The loss of Owen Daniels is big, but not huge. Matt Schaub is playing even better than I’d anticipated, although Steve Slaton has been very ineffective. His fumble problems have really gotten in the way of Houston being as good as I thought they’d be. Defensively, Houston has been among the top half of the NFL which has been enough to put them in position to snag a Wild Card spot, at least.

Alisberg Evaluation: B+

Who are they? John McClane, Die Hard. The Texans are winning games by airing the ball out downfield successful. Houston is ranked third in the league in passing yards per game, second in the league in passes resulting in gains of over 20 yards, tied for first in passing touchdowns, and first in first downs passing. They’re playing with McClane’s “Yippee kay-eh mothafuckah” mentality consequences be damned. They need to gain some balance to the offense but are headed to a place where they will be able to beat anyone with a few big breaks.

11. Green Bay Packers

What I thought: Aaron Rodgers would have another monster year which would allow a dominant Green Bay defense to keep the Packers in contention for the NFC North and ultimately allow them to snag a wild card spot. AJ Hawk would have a Pro Bowl caliber season. Charles Woodson and Al Harris would on occasion get burned, but they would combine for at least 12 interceptions.

What I think: I truly underestimated Green Bay’s issues with their pass protection and clearly overestimated Mike McCarthy’s capacity to coach a football team. Until their loss to Tampa Bay, the teams beating Green Bay had only combined for three losses (Minnesota twice and Cincinnati once). Still, Green Bay has had some very real struggles including their inability to run the football and protect Aaron Rodgers. They have a brutal three week stretch to open December that may very well put them out of the playoffs again.

Alisberg Evaluation: B-

Who are they? Sheila Keefe, Rescue Me. This metaphor works most for the fan base. As Sheila obsesses over getting control over the seemingly untamable Tommy Gavin, so do the Packers wish to get revenge on… you guessed it, Brett Favre. Their season is already considered a failure by many of the Packer faithful after the consecutive losses to Favre and the Vikings. Even my buddy from Wisconsin wrote a blog and spent four consecutive columns featuring insults at the man he grew up viewing in the same way I look at Michael Strahan. The sad thing is that Green Bay has become football’s equivalent of the Red Sox before needles invaded the heart of their lineup. Fans would rather see Minnesota (aka the Yankees) lose than see Green Bay win.

10. Atlanta Falcons

What I thought: Just like last year, the Falcons would be able to look like a top team while beating up on the dregs of the NFL, but have a lot of trouble stopping playmakers. They’d play some of the most consistent football in the league under the direction of Coach Mike Smith. I predicted Michael Turner would be significantly less productive than last year forcing Matt Ryan to keep the offense going. With the help of Tony Gonzalez, I expected Atlanta to be able to move the ball very consistently.

What I think: As expected, Atlanta has done just what they are supposed to do- losing only road games to three teams with a combined five losses. The home team is 7-1 in Falcons games. Atlanta stands as one of the toughest obstacles remaining on New Orleans’s schedule from a perfect regular season, especially now that Matt Ryan has become a Top 10 QB. That being said, several tough games remain that should stop Atlanta from making the playoffs. They are a well coached team, but they don’t quite have the talent to make a splash in January.

Alisberg Evaluation: B-

Who are they: Hermione Granger, Harry Potter. Maximizing her potential, Hermione is the best student in her class despite not being a very talented witch. Atlanta is the equivalent as a football team. Their coaching has been clearly been excellent; only Tampa Bay (with three field goals) has a higher touchdown to field goal ratio, which speaks volumes about Atlanta’s red zone efficiency. Great play-calling, a ferocious pass-rush from Abraham, and enough talent to get by, has been the recipe for an over .500 first half and a lot of positive talk in Atlanta.

9. Denver Broncos

What I thought: The Broncos were in serious trouble after losing a lot of Brandon Marshall’s value by trading Jay Cutler and seemed poised to lose Marshall after a weak start. Knowshon Moreno would be one of the most explosive rookies this season. That being said, Kyle Orton would not be able to stretch the defense in the way that had led to a successful Bronco rushing attack. Defensively, Denver would be average. A talented San Diego team and an improved Oakland team would bring Denver to a third place finish in the AFC West.

What I think: Denver got out to as easy a schedule as almost anybody in the league. Every good team on the schedule, before the Baltimore game, had played Denver very poorly. They caught Cincinnati, Dallas, New England, and San Diego at the perfect times. Unless Denver wins the next two back-to-back games, at Washington and at home against San Diego, they will not qualify for the playoffs. San Diego will win the AFC West, and Denver’s hot start will be lost in the Wild Card fray. I’m 1-7 in picking Broncos games, but insist that Denver is not a Top 10 team. Josh McDaniels is a top coach, but Denver does not have the personnel to beat a good team when it executes, especially when they figure out how to neutralize Denver’s kickoff returning threat, Eddie Royal.

Alisberg Evaluation: D

Who are they: Lloyd Lee, Entourage. Despite a promising start in which the Broncos did everything they were supposed to do, they still haven’t gotten their due. I must admit, that I first thought of this analogy watching McDaniels pump his fist and celebrate after beating the Patriots and imagining how Lloyd would feel after beating Ari at his own game. Denver hasn’t demonstrated that they can play playoff caliber football yet; they’ve needed a fluke play and lots of luck to be where they are now. Admittedly, I underrated them, but I underrated the Broncos a lot less than some experts overrated them after their hot start. It’s easy to forget how close Denver is to a 3-5 or even 2-6 start.

Bears at 49ers Pick

Two underachieving teams square off in the first Thursday Night Football game of the year. The Bears have been struggling, especially on defense with the loss of Brian Urlacher. Offensively, Matt Forte hasn't produced anywhere close to my expectations given the addition of Jay Cutler. On the other hand, Michael Crabtree has provided a spark for 49ers despite their 0-3 record since joining the team. Alex Smith has not reached my expectations since regaining the starting job, but he has played better than he'd played since college. Both of these teams still have potential to make the playoffs. The Bears, as strange as it sounds, have weapons on offense while the 49ers are more dangerous than they've been since trading Terrell Owens to Baltimore. San Francisco especially is far from a Top 6 NFC team, but anything is possible in the NFC West.

Vegas has the 49ers as 3 point favorites, giving them the home-field edge. I think the line is perfect. It's a must-win game for both teams' playoff chances. Unfortunately, this is not the year for Chicago. The Vikings are too good, and the combination of 2 teams from the NFC East, the Packers, the Falcons, and possibly even the Panthers who aren't as far away from 7-5 as one may think make the Wild Card race way too congested for the Bears to make a major push without Urlacher. I think San Francisco wins this game, by 3 points. Obviously, I have to make a pick though, one way or the other... so:

49ERS -3 over Bears

Last Week

4-9 Overall 1-3 Bold Picks

Season

67-61 Overall 17-18 Bold Picks

The Consequences of Super Bowl XLII

Living with the Consequences

Amidst the euphoria building through us as we watched the 2008 NFC Divisional playoff game conclude in Dallas as Tony Romo threw three consecutive incompletions and ultimately an interception to seal the game, my friends and I slowly came to a sad realization. The upset of the Cowboys essentially gave Tom Coughlin, a truly inept in-game coach, immunity and tenure with the Giants. Admittedly, I started to come around when I saw Coughlin get frostbite during the NFC Championship game; I genuinely think that he helped the team more than he hurt them in Lambeau. Unfortunately, Coughlin got credit for Steve Spagnuolo’s brilliant gameplan to stop New England’s offense in the Super Bowl and the Giants were doomed to two more years (at least) of underachieving with late game coaching that could best be described as comical. Despite all his mistakes and questionable decisions, such as Week 17 when we played with no sense of urgency down by two scores late in the game, Coughlin’s job was safe for at least another year.

Don’t get me wrong, Tom Coughlin has done wonders for the Giants’ franchise. He deserves credit for fixing Tiki Barber’s fumbling problem. He deserves perhaps even more credit for understanding that his disciplinarian style was causing more problems than it was solving and adapting to the players’ needs. He contributed to a decision that ultimately led to a Super Bowl when he hired Steve Spagnuolo to replace Tim Lewis as the teams’ defensive coordinator. Lastly, Coughlin deserves a lot of credit for sticking with Eli Manning, even when he was at his most unpopular (even though with the price the Giants made to get Manning, Coughlin didn’t have much of a choice).

I’ve made no secret about my disdain for many of the decisions made by New York’s coaching staff. In my preview of what I expected from the offense I wrote, “I remain in the small minority of fans by maintaining that Eli did not fold down the stretch last season. I place the blame on a harder schedule than the Giants had been facing during their 11-1 start and the abysmal play calling of Kevin Gilbride.” And I was right. I think play calling is measured best by third down and red zone efficiency, because obviously there are no statistics to measure play calling separately from execution, but clearly a team with as many weapons as the Giants should not be ranked in the bottom 5 in red zone offense. As last year’s season came to a close and Gilbride and Spags were contacted about head coaching vacancies around the league, I held the unrealistic hope that Jerry Reese would realize who was the only championship caliber coach on his staff and promote him. Instead, the Rams landed Spagnuolo- the single biggest offseason loss the Giants have experienced this decade.

This year’s Giants coaching staff has looked lost week in and week out and has routinely made head-scratching decisions. After the Week 1 victory against Washington, I questioned almost everything the Giants ran. The game was over after the first half, but I wrote “Kevin Gilbride called pretty much the only plays that guaranteed a 4th down situation: slow-developing rushes by Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw” about the first possession and “Facing 2nd and 3 on Washington's 5, the Giants faced a situation where they'd really love to have 3rd round draft choice Ramses Barden. Instead, the Giants gave the ball to Jacobs three times in a row. Everyone and their brother knew what was coming; the Giants turned the ball over on downs.” In my list of heroes and goats from the game, I listed as the biggest goat: “Kevin Gilbride- Gilbride showed some creativity in the beginning of the game but called a truly terrible game, especially in short yardage situations. The Giants were a paltry 2/10 on situations with three or fewer yards to go for a first down. That's pathetic. The Giants need to do a lot better in Dallas.” Unfortunately, two months later there hasn’t been improvement.

In Week 2, the Giants barely scraped by with a win despite catching break after break and dominating the turnover battle. Kenny Phillips played his last game of the season and I wrote, “Corey Webster will now be overwhelmed once the Giants play against New Orleans, Arizona, Philadelphia, and San Diego on consecutive Sundays.” A convincing Week 3 win over Tampa Bay didn’t have me convinced that the Giants were playing up to their potential either. The ninth point I listed illustrated my concerns with the Giants' coaching staff. Most recently, I blamed the Giants’ first two of their now four consecutive losses squarely, on the shoulders of the coaching staff. Nothing has changed.

The most frustrating part of the loss against San Diego was undoubtedly that the Giants showed flashes of how good they can really be. I remarked multiple times throughout the game that this had been the best play-calling I’d seen by the Giants since the Kansas City game. Unfortunately, Bill Sheridan took over right where Gilbride left off with possibly the worst defensive scheme the Giants have run since losing to Dallas and Green Bay to kickoff the 2007 season. Justin Tuck on Antonio Gates? Six or seven guys blitzing on every third down? A quarterback with Vince Young’s intelligence could’ve figured out who’d be open the moment he stepped to the line against this gameplan. Spagnuolo knew how to mix it up and keep the linemen guessing. That’s why the Giants would rack up sacks. As linemen wouldn’t figure out their assignments, our defense would be able to reach the quarterback untouched in some situations.

The offensive gameplan wasn’t perfect, but it was definitely a step in the right direction. Ok, on the 2^nd and 2 near the end of the first drive, anybody with a football IQ over 85 would’ve realized that a screen pass to Kevin Boss would’ve been almost a guaranteed first down… same thing on the 3^rd and 1 play right afterwards. But in fairness to Kevin Gilbride, the 10 minute drive in the 2^nd quarter was brilliantly drawn up and well executed- exactly what I’d expect from this Giants team. In the second half, the Giants once again demonstrated their ineptitude on short yardage situations by failing to convert a 2^nd and 3 after Michael Johnson’s interception. Why they’ve yet to try a dumpout screen to Boss is beyond me. Finally, Tom Coughlin’s clock management at the end of the game was the worst football I’ve seen since witnessing JaMarcus Russell in the flesh and illustrated his same incapacity to understand clock-management as the 2007 Week 17 game against New England.

The players are really not at fault for the current slump. Eli hasn’t been perfect, but he’s done more right than wrong for the team. I feel that the best way to fix Brandon Jacobs’s “tiptoeing” issue is to bench him for a game, consequences be damned. Hopefully the bye week can have the same effect. Obviously, C.C. Brown’s play in the secondary had been unacceptable, but these players demonstrate the exceptions to otherwise solid play all-around. Had the Giants played Arizona and Philadelphia like they played San Diego, the team would be at least 6-3, possibly even better. Kevin Boss has impressed me every time Manning’s looked his way; only Gilbride and Manning stand in his way from a well-deserved spot in the Pro Bowl. Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks have done their jobs very consistently. Antonio Pierce hasn’t been able to be the force to which Giants fans have grown accustomed because with the kindergarten level sophistication of the defensive gameplan, linemen are able to pick him up on virtually every running play.

In the three losses leading up to the San Diego game, the Giants lost their swagger on both sides of the ball. Instead of trying to stick it to the other team and win the game early on, the Giants have switched to an ultra-conservative keep the game close and win it at the end philosophy. They demonstrated this on fourth down after Michael Johnson’s interception when instead of going for a chance to take the lead, Coughlin elected to punt. Jim Nantz and Phil Simms praised the call; I hated it. First of all, it should never have come to that 4^th down, but give the line a chance to make a push and keep the drive alive. Coughlin said after the game, “many, many times the game should’ve been over.” Well guess what Tom, that’s your fault. You could’ve made the call to stick the nail in the coffin… more than once. Guess who scored the next points after that punt? San Diego.

Finally, Tom Coughlin’s strategic blunder after Terrell Thomas’s interception absolutely has to be addressed. Coughlin demonstrated less of a killer instinct on that drive than Rocky Balboa during his first fight with Clubber Lang. By choosing to try to run out the clock with the fourteen yards (post-holding call), the Giants guaranteed that San Diego would have enough time to efficiently march down the field, score, and give the Giants the ball back with practically no time. In fact, the 3^rd and 4^th down playcall especially did two things for San Diego; it ensured the defense wouldn’t have to worry about surrendering another touchdown and put the offense 16 yards closer to paydirt. Let’s put all the cards on the table.

Coughlin lamented after the game, “[A Giants win] wasn’t to be, you can second-guess it all you want. A field goal at that point in time forced them to have a touchdown and score a touch down.” EXCUSE ME? How the hell would Coughlin respond if after Eli Manning gave him this response after he floated up a pass that was picked off by triple coverage. As a fan, I can’t defend a man who responds like that to blowing a game he’d described as a playoff game. As for forcing San Diego to try for a touchdown? Whether San Diego was down by three points going into their last drive or six points going into their last drive, the Chargers were going to play for the touchdown. Even Norv Turner understands the benefits of winning in regulation vs. relying on a coin toss to gain an edge in overtime. The Giants had all the momentum on their side. Moreover, factoring in the Giants’ average kickoff coverage compared to a failed fourth down play from the 4, Coughlin actually expected to give San Diego 20-25 yards of better field position than they may have had otherwise. Assuming San Diego had taken over on their own four, down by 3, they still would have played for the win. Even if San Diego decided to play for the field goal, the Chargers would have had to drive fifty-six yards for Nate Kaeding to attempt to match his career long in the swirling winds of the Meadowlands. The 24 yard difference between that field and the eighty yard field that the Giants ultimately were left to defend matches right up with the 20-25 what Coughlin had to expect the kickoff gave the Chargers. Had the Giants made the stop and forced the field goal, they probably would’ve had time to take over on offense. Coughlin was right the game should’ve been over, but he didn’t even give the team a chance to end it on our terms.

So how good are the Giants? Clearly their coaching staff has been horrendous. Still, I feel that a healthy Giants team can compete with absolutely anybody in this league. If they can execute their game plan, the Giants are as good as anybody, if not the best in the league. Right now, it’s up to the coaching staff to make that happen instead of taking a lesson from Plaxico Burress and shooting the team in the foot. There has been progress. My grade of Gilbride’s playcalling this season has increased from a solid F up to about a C-. When the Giants are not outcoached every week, they will be neck and neck with New Orleans as the Super Bowl favorite. Until then, the immunity Tom Coughlin and Kevin Gilbride earned from the Super Bowl run in 2007 may be waning by the minute.

Week 9 Picks

Last Week: 8-5 overall, 3-1 bold picks

Season: 63-52 overall, 16-15 bold picks

Between Week 5 and Week 8: 32-21 overall, 9-6 bold picks

In a season that has been limited to very few upsets and more cellar-dwellers than the league has seen in a long time, Week 9 should provide a nice refreshing dose of upsets that will shock the experts on the pregame show. The Colts/Falcons/Patriots teaser this week will get crushed.

Hats off to Fox for taking the pregame show to Afghanistan this week, right before Veteran's day. That being said, it goes without saying that we owe a lot more of an appreciation to the troops abroad that the show is hoping to visit. Thank you to the men and women who are serving our country. Please don't think for a moment that we don't appreciate you.

Happy 21st Birthday today to my grade school buddy, Tommy Melly. Congratulations on the news from last week too.

To the picks:

Chiefs +7 over JAGUARS

Drama such as the hoopla surrounding Larry Johnson’s criticism of Coach Todd Haley and anti-homosexual (I took too much Classics in High School to use the word “homophobic.” By bringing up a word with homosexual connotations doesn’t it mean you are not afraid of the issue. Just because one associates homosexual connotations as negative connotations, doesn’t mean he or she fears gays) slurs on twitter has Bill Simmons’s Ewing Theory written all over it. Johnson’s been the workhorse of the team; Smith and Charles’s fresh legs should keep Jacksonville on their heels all game. Factor in the coaching mismatch, Kansas City should keep this within a score.

Ravens -3 over BENGALS

I continue to think Baltimore is the best team in the AFC. #1. Players are going to be coming out with a sense of purpose from the beginning. I’d be astonished if the Ravens allowed Cincinnati to sweep them in the season series. A couple Bengal mistakes will be all the Ravens need to make this one turn ugly. But the Bengals are at home? This game was almost blacked out because the fan base is so nonchalant. There’s more love for the Bengals last year’s on campus poker game than there is on Sundays in Paul Brown stadium. Because I feel it’s more important to gloat than to actually continue my success without jinxing it, let me add that I’m a combined 12-2 in picking games with either of these teams.

Texans +9 over COLTS

My two leading MVP candidates, Matt Schaub and Peyton Manning, square off in a game that will have huge implications in January. I continue to be unimpressed by the victories the Colts have racked up this season. San Francisco should have beaten Indianapolis after they were slaughtered by Houston in the first half, 21-0. The Texans have a +51 scoring differential in the past five games including a win in Cincinnati against a Bengals team that is also better than the Colts and were very close to sneaking away with a win in Arizona too. Unfortunately for Houston and for my blog, this game comes at a terrible time; Houston just lost Owen Daniels for the season and past history indicates they are due for a letdown game. Moreover, unfortunately for Indianapolis, these games against divisional opponents are the games in which you actually need a coach. The Colts are losing players on defense too. This spread is 5 points too high. Don’t be surprised if Houston comes out of this one with the win. They’re the better team, even though they’re on the road.

Redskins +10 over FALCONS

The Redskins have had two weeks to think about the woeful state of their franchise. Clinton Portis has had some much needed rest, and the Skins are playing a Falcon team that is coming off of a short week after a dramatic performance against the best team in the league. Also, Washington’s getting 10 points. Atlanta’s advantage on defense against the Washington offensive line will be somewhat neutralized. Michael Turner is going to really struggle, prompting several “What’s going on in Atlanta” articles all over the internet this week. Be ready.

Packers -10 over BUCCANEERS

This year’s Tampa Bay offense reminds me of a gentleman for whom I caddied two summers ago. We all know people like him. He was trying out a new set of top of the line golf clubs. For some reason, all round he was sending balls straight into the ground. Obviously, this infuriated him and prompted him to complain to the other golfers and to me about what crap the clubs were. It never occurred to him that he might need to change his swing. As the round progressed and more alcohol was consumed, the other golfers started to heckle him. After one of them hit a good shot, they’d sarcastically quip something about being so fortunate to not be stuck with his clubs. He caught on that they were making fun of him, and in the end I went home frustrated with a lousy tip.

Tampa Bay has had significantly better quarterback play from Leftwich and Johnson than I expected from them; Johnson in particular has surprised me. They have multiple quality running backs too. Their offensive line, however, has been horrendous. By switching to Josh Freeman, Coach Morris is essentially demoing the new, sexy set of golf clubs. It doesn’t matter what the technology is; without a competent golfer, don’t expect great results. Instead of playing musical chairs at quarterback, Tampa Bay should try to find a way to get some resemblance of a push from their offensive line. I can’t wait for him to be surprised once Freeman finds a Packer cornerback for his first interception right after being flushed out of the pocket. A good coach would know this, but Tampa Bay fired Jon Gruden last year. The Packers should win this by 20.

BEARS -3 over Cardinals

An overrated team with an easy schedule against an underrated team with a hard schedule. All three of Chicago’s losses have come on the road, against potential playoff teams. Arizona, as I predicted last week, lost to a struggling Carolina team. Barring a three-plus interception performance from Jay Cutler, the Bears should cruise through this one.

Dolphins +10.5 over PATRIOTS

Miami is 3-0 in games against AFC East opponents, whereas New England is 1-1 with a minus-6 point differential. Expect 200 yards rushing from the Dolphins and maybe 30 from the Patriots. It’s time also for me to say the unthinkable, in as drawn out a way as possible. The most important storyline from the AFC East this season has nothing to do with new faces such as Terrell Owens and Mark Sanchez. I’ve decided to be the one to break some sobering news to New England fans. For dramatic effect, I’m going to ask for a drumroll… wait for it… wait for it… wait for it… ok ready?

Bill Belichick, once the consensus best coach in football is past his prime and has been figured out. Let me restate that. The Patriots have lost the coaching advantage to which fans have grown so accustomed with the hoodie. They’ve been outcoached in multiple games this season. Wow that feels like a huge burden off my chest. I’d be more surprised to see the Patriots cover this one than I would to see the Dolphins pull off the upset. I can’t wait.

SAINTS -13 over Panthers

The Saints are going to have one of their biggest tests of the season against the Panthers, but it would be crazy to suggest that that will happen in New Orleans. As I’ve been saying, the Panthers are not as bad as many people have suggested, but they still won’t keep this one close. Drew Brees is due for another very big game this week.

SEAHAWKS -10 over Lions

There’s a reason that a team can be blown out by 22 points only to return home and lay a double digit line. If you have Matt Hasselbeck on a fantasy team, please start him- you will be handsomely rewarded. The Lions’ defense won’t be able to stop Seattle at all. I think this final looks something like 34-16.

49ERS -4 over Titans

San Francisco gets a chance to try out their new and improved offense against a defense that allowed 59 points the last time they were on the road. Vince Young succeeded last week because the Jaguars gave him coverage that Kerry Collins would have shredded. Don’t expect Mike Singletary to make the same mistake. This is a mismatch in San Francisco’s favor on both sides of the ball.

GIANTS -4.5 over Chargers

Disappointing stretch of games in a season with lofty expectations? Check. Quarterback named Manning? Check. Old coach who looks like he’s a threat to charge the referees every time the camera shows his face? Check. Conclusion? The Giants could very well only have to lay one or two more eggs before Tom Coughlin one ups Jim Mora’s legendary “Playoffs?!” rant. I do feel like at some point early in this game, the Chargers will catch the Giants off guard with a Tomlinson pass or a reverse. That being said, I feel like this is finally the game that the Giants win after allowing the other team a brief lead. I think San Diego’s defense isn’t good enough to stop the Big Blue attack and sincerely hope that the same isn’t true on the other side of the ball.

EAGLES -3 over Cowboys

The Eagles are a much better coached and overall much more dangerous team than Dallas. The last time these teams squared off, Tony Romo collapsed in the shower. Since then, Philly has gotten better and Dallas has gotten worse. Philadelphia is going to break multiple big rushes and cruise to a win over Dallas. The Romo/Phillips connection in Dallas has about as much potential to win a big one as a Joe Biden/Howard Dean ticket does of winning in 2012.

BRONCOS +3 over Steelers

My first time picking Denver with the spread all season corresponds not to me thinking highly of them, rather to my expectations that Ben Roethlisberger will have a TERRIBLE game. I suspect the Steelers are going to rely too much on the pass in the beginning and play from behind for three quarters. This is one of the toughest games for me to pick this week, because I feel that both teams are overrated. We will see.