Week 10 Picks

Week 9: 4-9, 1-3 Bold
Week 10: 1-0 so far
Season: 68-61, 17-18 Bold

JETS -7 over Jaguars

I like the Jets on both sides of the ball in this one. If Rex Ryan can devise a plan to force David Garrard to get the ball down the field on the Jets, Jacksonville will be in serious trouble. Revis should neutralize Mike Sims-Walker. Even with the substantial loss of Kris Jenkins, I like the Jets to get a big win here and stay alive in the wild card chase.

Broncos -3.5 over REDSKINS

A very out of character pick considering I think the Broncos are still overrated while the Redskins (by default considering how bad everyone thinks they are) are overrated. The Redskins really don’t have any fire anymore; look at the way the team responded when DeAngelo Hall was surrounded on the Falcons sideline. The Atlanta coaches had their players backs while even the commentators noticed that the Redskins ignored Hall. That said, I think Washington needs a 9+ play drive to open up the game, get some points on the board, and play with a lead to protect. Do you see that coming? Denver’s D-Line is going to hound Jason Campbell all day. This is a game where a Washington win can get their players behind Zorn and maybe even get him enough momentum to finish around 7-9 and keep his job, but at this point, it’s already too late. Zorn has lost the Redskins.

Bengals +7 over STEELERS

Cincinnati keeps getting better every week. I think that this game comes down to turnovers and expect that Roethlisberger will throw at least a couple of picks. I’d love the Bengals to come out throwing on a Pittsburgh defense that is on short rest and going to key in on neutralizing comeback player of the year candidate, Cedric Benson. On the other side of the ball, I feel that Pittsburgh’s offense isn’t as good as the Baltimore offense that was held scoreless by three quarters. If Cincinnati can keep Pittsburgh’s 3rd down conversions anywhere near the Ravens last week (1/10), the Bengals can fasten their seat belts into the driver’s seat of the AFC North race. That’s a lot of “ifs”, but Cincinnati has been very impressive, way too impressive to pass up seven points.

Bills +7 over TITANS

I’m definitely leaning over 50/50 that the Titans will win this one straight up but lack the confidence to lay seven against a Bills team that should be getting Trent Edwards back. I think Tennessee’s defense is exactly the type of opponent the Bills passing attack needs to get going. On the other side of the ball, Buffalo will be able to afford to bring an eighth guy into the box to stop Chris Johnson and allow Vince Young to try to beat them downfield. This is a textbook matchup that the Bills can definitely win. If Buffalo had almost any other coach, I’d take them to win straight up.

17 + Lions over VIKINGS

Because this pick has nothing to do with the game, only the spread. Detroit’s going to put together one solid half that makes everybody think, “Hey, maybe these Lions are putting something together” but one half in which Minnesota scores twice in 2:00 and reminds everyone how silly that idea really is. I penciled this game in as picking the Vikings but got a queasy feeling in my stomach when I realized that I’d be starting out a game down 17 points and with Brad Childress. I doubt the Vikings play this one 100%.

Saints -14 over RAMS

I can’t understand this spread being so low and am thus scared of it. I’d feel a lot more comfortable taking New Orleans if Vegas was offering a thirty point spread here. I’m picking Saints 24 Rams 3… by the end of the first quarter (kind of).

PANTHERS +2 over Falcons

The Panthers have been making strides since their awful start. Carolina has been playing the way I’d been suggesting they start playing. Williams is right up there with Adrian Peterson, Steven Jackson, and Chris Johnson as the scariest running back in football. I hesitate to add Benson to that list, because I feel that Jackson, Johnson, and Williams would do even better than Benson with Carson Palmer keeping the defense spaced out. My knuckles are pounding the wood on my desk as I add that home teams are 7-1 in Falcons games.

DOLPHINS -10 over Bucs

I don’t like picking either team in this matchup, because Josh Freeman will not have the same success that he had last week and because that I couldn’t advertise this blog in good conscience if I bet on Tampa Bay’s defense to stop anybody, let alone the Dolphins’ Wildcat formation. How many rushing yards will Miami get? 200? 250?

RAIDERS -2 over Chiefs

This is despite Kansas City’s momentum that may carry over from the 4th quarter against Jacksonville. Oakland is just a better team than KC. Darren McFadden and Robert Gallery returning to Oakland’s offense definitely won’t hurt. Chambers will help KC more than last week, especially since Nnamdi Asomugha should be on Dwayne Bowe.

Seahawks +9 over CARDINALS

Please, Coach Mora, please listen to TJ Houshmendzadeh. It’s really not a bad idea to give him the ball, early and often. Julius Jones will be able to run all over the Cardinals if Hasselbeck gets going early. Please, Coach, please.

Eagles -1 over CHARGERS

Philadelphia’s offense is way too dangerous for San Diego’s defense, especially with the return of Brian Westbrook. I expect this to be a three touchdown, two interception contest for Donovan McNabb. The Chargers got off easy last week by playing against a defensive gameplan that played them with less variety than Lance Reddick’s acting roles. (Inhale, exhale, inhale, exhale… okay I’m changing the subject). I do expect Tomlinson to have his best game to date this year and would be very surprised if the game doesn’t go over the 47 point over/under. San Diego lost me as a true believer a couple weeks ago, but this is the game that they could win me back.

Random side note: Does anybody else feel weird to hear “Donovan McNabb”? There are some first name quarterbacks: “Peyton, Eli, Ben, Drew” and the occasional exasperated “JaMarcus!” There are some quarterbacks whose first name would never be used- I’ll include last names when I feel it’s necessary, “David (Garrard), Kyle, Trent (for obvious reasons), Alex (Smith), Jason (Campbell), Jay (Cutler)” the list goes on. Then there are the guys whose first and last name are inseparable, “Brett Favre, Carson Palmer, Kurt Warner (only when Warner’s being mentioned on a list, otherwise ‘Warner’ suffices), Tom Brady, Matt Schaub” et cetera, et cetera. I feel like McNabb moved from the third group a while ago and can’t really remember when… anyways

PACKERS +3 over Cowboys

Attention Green Bay! Your season is NOT over. The Packers have lost so far this year to the Bengals, Vikings (twice), and now the Bucs. Everyone has a bad week where they don’t show up. The Cowboys provide the perfect opponent for Green Bay to face: a poorly coached, undisciplined team that will give Green Bay second and third chances with penalties. Romo in Lambeau? Take the Packers.

Patriots +3 over COLTS

This is a battle of the two teams whose quarterbacks are unquestionably the faces of their franchise. The Manning or Brady debate isn’t even close in my opinion. Brady can’t hold a candle next to what Manning’s done with limited talent. The Colts finally have a defense that is better than their offense, but they are about to be exposed. If you were planning on taking a futures bet against the Colts doing well in the playoffs, this is the time. They were lucky to scrape by against Houston and will not do it again. This game begins a three game losing streak for Indy.

Ravens -11 over BROWNS

Baltimore is one of the best teams; Cleveland is one of the worst. If there were a game for Cleveland’s team to come together behind Eric Mangini, this would be it… but I don’t see that happening. Baltimore has had a brutal schedule this season, and I expect them to make a huge statement against Cleveland that they still belong at the top. One red flag, however coach John Harbaugh isn’t stupid. He understands the benefits of resting his starters if the Ravens get an early start with a huge game next week on short rest against Indianapolis. It’s a shame that this is our Monday night game though... bummer.