Ten Cents on Week 10

Ten Cents on Week 10

1. Big Weekend for Big Blue
The New York Giants had their best week since Lawrence Tynes’s field goal in the closing seconds of the Week 2 game in Dallas. Losses by Atlanta, Chicago, Philadelphia, and Dallas once again gave the Giants control of their own destiny in the NFC East Divisional race and the NFC Wild Card race. What’s more, Washington appears to be clicking at the perfect time for the Giants, just before the Skins head to Dallas. The Giants got some much needed rest and should come out of their bye week with the healthiest defense they’ve had since losing Kenny Phillips. Ross, Canty, Boley, and Tuck will be able to make the defense more dangerous and hopefully give Bill Sheridan a chance to send in some different looks against Matt Ryan.

2. Don’t forget Carolina
The Carolina Panthers are 4-2 since their bye week with three consecutive winnable games ahead of them. It is very conceivable that the Panthers could be 7-5 heading into the toughest stretch any team will face this season (@NE, vs. Min, @NYG, vs. NO). I expect the Panthers to beat New Orleans Week 17 and most likely end the Jake Delhomme era on a relatively high note, given the way the season started.

3. AFC WOWth
A 3-0 weekend by the AFC South teams leaves little doubt as to which division is the deepest in the NFL. While the NFC East still has the most talent in the league, the abysmal coaching in the division (Really? Jim Zorn may be the best four quarter coach in the division???) has made it too difficult for me to insist that the NFC East is the toughest division in football anymore. On the other hand, the AFC South has an overrated Colts team that seems to get luckier by the week, a Top 5 passing attack in Houston, a Jacksonville Jaguars team that had the sneakiest climb over .500 of the season, and a resurgent Titans team with a quarterback who has somehow been labeled a bust despite being 21-11 as a starter with the Titans. Another interesting fact: since the Titans drafted Young, there have been clear turning points in their seasons. In 2006, the Titans rebounded from an 0-5 start to finish 8-8. In 2007, the Titans fell from a 6-2 start, down to 7-6, before winning three straight (including a game against the Jim Sorgi led Colts) to make the playoffs at 10-6. Last year, we all remember the Titans’ 10-0 start, before they lost four of their next seven including the home playoff game against Baltimore. It looks like this year will not be an exception.

4. The Least Defensible Coaching Decision of the Year...
Week 10 featured the worst coaching blunder of the year, and it didn’t come in the Pats Colts game. Mike McCarthy made an absolute idiot of himself in Green Bay’s victory over Dallas. Not only were Green Bay and Dallas completely undisciplined in each racking up double digit numbers of penalties, but McCarthy absolutely squandered his last challenge in a situation that had little-to-no chance of having the play overturned and that had little-to-no benefit of the play being reversed. With the Packers leading 3-0, Aaron Rodgers completed a 3rd down pass to Jordy Nelson, whose knee was down about one foot from the Cowboys’ goal line. McCarthy thought about the situation and decided that it was less likely that Green Bay could move a foot on four plays than it was that Jeff Triplette’s crew would make another mistake in the Cowboys’ favor which Green Bay would need to challenge. The rest goes without saying. Green Bay lost the challenge, scored on Aaron Rodgers’s sneak on first down, and ultimately threw another challenge flag up 17-0 two possessions later- in a situation which the play actually may have been overturned. Luckily, Charles Woodson sealed the game with an end zone interception. McCarthy looked like an out-of-place idiot in this entire sequence. The Packers need to let him go, as soon as this week. They should be much better.

5. Brooms out in Cincinnati
I predicted that Cincinnati would make the playoffs in my NFL Preview. I never imagined they’d sweep both Baltimore and Pittsburgh to do so. It looks like there is going to be an odd man out between the Bengals, Ravens, and Steelers, probably the three top teams in the AFC. Before Patriots fans remind me that Baltimore lost to New England, let’s remember that that game was in New England and also that Baltimore beat the Broncos 30-7 and never lost to the Jets. Marvin Lewis deserves a ton of credit for the resurgent Bengals, and Chad Ochocinco’s checkbook has paid for a lot of the fun in the NFL over the past few weeks.

6. “THEY ARE WHO HE THOUGHT THEY WERE”
For the first six weeks, I insisted that the Broncos and the Colts were beneficiaries of weak opponents or opponents giving a weak performance. Most odds-makers agreed with my assessment of the Broncos and agreed that their wins over Dallas, New England, and San Diego were upsets. The Chargers are once again the clear-cut favorite to win the AFC West.
Indianapolis, on the other hand, was the #1 ranked team by ESPN’s power rankings ever since Baltimore’s first loss. The Colts are 9-0; nobody can take that away from them, but they are far from the juggernaut that many experts have considered them. Five of their nine games have been decided by four points or less. The others: three NFC West opponents and the Titans before their renaissance. Don’t get fooled by the Colts. Even though he has still been playing better than any other quarterback, Peyton Manning has regressed from his astounding start back to a level of mere mortals. Baltimore will make mincemeat of Indianapolis next week, especially with the injury problems now plaguing their secondary.

7. Beware Betting against Brett Kern
Despite utterly average stats, the one player who remains undefeated against the spread has been punter Brett Kern, waived by the then 6-0 Denver Broncos and signed by the then 0-6 Tennessee Titans. Since then, Denver is 0-3 against the spread and in their games themselves, while the Titans have improved from 0-6 (in general and against the spread) to 3-0 (ditto). If this ever happened with a player at a skill position on offense, or a middle linebacker or defensive end, a lot more chatter would discuss this phenomenon. I view this as a coincidence, because football is a team sport, but Brett Kern may be the best locker room guy in the NFL

8. Rebirth of Parity
While the Browns have been relentless in their pursuit of the #32 spot in the Power Rankings, the Bucs, Rams, Chiefs, Raiders, Redskins, and Bills have leapfrogged the Lions back into the category of respectability. Tonight sets up a huge trap game for the Ravens, who have to be more focused about their upcoming game against Indianapolis than they are about their game tonight against Brady Quinn and the Jets’ cast-offs. Beware the backdoor cover tonight. Quinn will be on a mission. This game has choke written all over it. This is a true test for John Harbaugh who should beat Mangini’s Browns by 20.
That said, I feel George Kokonis was fired very prematurely. He inherited a disaster and tried to stockpile draft picks and build a contender in years to come rather than go the route of say a Vinny Cerrato or Isiah Thomas. Mangini should’ve been fired long before Kokonis.

9. Belichick blows his biggest lead
I’ve mentioned that I felt Bill Belichick has lost his edge over the past two seasons and feel that last night’s blown lead against the Colts testifies to that very well. The Patriots lost a 17 point fourth quarter lead and Belichick made some terrible decisions on the Patriots’ last drive that could’ve put the game away. He faced a decision to either play for the first down and win the game or to put the fate of the game in the hands of Peyton Manning and trust his defense to stop the Colts from completing the two minute drill. After burning a timeout before the drive even began, it appeared he chose the latter.
On first down, he forced the Colts to burn a timeout after a Kevin Faulk draw went nowhere. That was a bread and butter call that the Bill Belichick of old would never have made. Since acquiring Moss and Welker, the Patriots’ offense has been defined by quick slants. If you’re going to trust your quarterback to complete a pass on 4th and 2, then you better damn well be ready to trust him to complete a pass on first down. I have no qualms with the call on second down- a smart high percentage pass to Welker that worked. Timeout #2 by the Colts. Now, with eight seconds before the two minute warning, Belichick needed to make the decision again on whether to go for the win or to take time off the clock and put pressure on Peyton. 3rd and 2, what do you do?
The only time I witnessed the 2007 Patriots live, they cemented their perfect regular season against a Giants team that outplayed them in the Meadowlands. That game, on the Patriots’ very first offensive possession, Brady hit Moss for a five yard gain to pick up a first down on 4th and 2. The play before, Kevin Faulk picked up an eight yard gain because the defense (and crowd) was too concerned with stopping Moss and Welker. That game, the Patriots thrived with passes to Welker and Faulk on 3rd downs (and a couple lucky breaks with some key penalties)… but here’s the thing: defenses now expect Faulk to be a first look for Brady.
So 3rd and 2, Belichick dials up the same play looking for a quick pass to Welker. That was the blunder of the game. If you’re in two down territory, that’s the play you try to run it with Faulk up the middle or look at Moss or Edelman down the field. Worst case scenario? Nobody’s open, and Brady tries to pick up the first down with his feet. Assuming he fails (as he probably would have), the clock ticks down past the 2 minute warning and Peyton has only one timeout to pick up 70 yards in under two minutes. Brady threw a bad pass and Belichick made yet another bad decision by burning the Patriots’ final timeout, essentially giving his offense zero chance of winning if the Colts had managed to score. Then came 4th down: Faulk cuts his route too soon, Brady hesitates before throwing the ball, Bullitt makes the play of the game by forcing Faulk back behind the line. Belichick weighed his options out on 4th down and decided that the 40 yards a punt would’ve gained wasn’t worth the chance to end the game right there. He dialed up a play that had worked for them before, but Brady and Faulk were not synchronized enough for the first down. It was inconceivable to me that the booth failed to review the spot, but what do I know? After all, as I wrote, most leagues want us to believe that their officiating is perfect.
Belichick made the right call on second down and fourth down. Given that the Patriots lost, he can never get the credit for making the call so few coaches would have made. He defied conventional wisdom even though the Colts, instead of rushing to score when they took over on downs, tried to milk the clock as long as possible. Had they faced a 70 yard field, there’s really no reason to think Manning would have failed. Monday night, in Indianapolis? There’s a reason that unlucky 13 is the most dangerous lead a team can hold late in the game. It puts just enough pressure on the other team to score two quick touchdowns and win the game. I place the blame for the Patriots loss squarely on Brady’s shoulders. He threw a bad pass on 3rd down and hesitated on 4th down. Manning would never have made those mistakes.

10. What’s new this week on the blog?
Mideseason awards. I’m planning Top 5s in:

MVP, Comeback Player, Most Improved, Most Regressed, Coach of the Year, Worst Coach of the Year, Rookie of the Year, and Game of the Year. Also, we’re about ready for a new Power Rankings and it’s about time to compare my Week 2 Power Rankings and ESPN’s to their new rankings… or maybe I’ll wait until Baltimore dismantles Indianapolis next week.

Thanks for reading, if there’s anything else you want me to add for my midseason awards, let me know either by commenting on the blog or at http://twitter.com/alisberg


Late Update: PANTHERS -3 over Dolphins