Week 12 Preview

Turkey Day: 1-2, 1-0 Bold

Season: 85-76, 24-20 Bold

TEXANS +4 over Colts

I continue to think that the Texans are a better team than the Colts. Indianapolis is a .500 team against the spread and have only the fourth highest point differential despite four games against the very weak NFC West. Houston, on the other hand, should have beaten the Colts in Indianapolis and looked like a Super Bowl contender in the Monday Night thriller against Tennessee. The Colts lasting undefeated this long reminds me of the Hawks lasting against the Celtics in the first round of the 2008 playoffs. It’s been time for two months for the Colts to lose a game. This is going to be a memorable game in years to come of the AFC South.

Browns +14 over BENGALS

Cleveland played Cincinnati very well last time these two teams squared off. I think the Browns can carry some momentum from last week’s performance against the Lions. This intra-state rivalry is rarely separated by a couple of touchdowns. The Browns will keep this close. Only once this season has this Cincinnati team won by more than two touchdowns.

EAGLES -9 over Redskins

It’s amazing to think about just how close Washington was last week from being only two games behind the NFC East lead. Unfortunately, that was not the case. Centered around the big play for a quick strike, Philadelphia’s offense is too explosive for Washington’s defense. There’s going to be an awful lot of pressure on the Redskins’ secondary in this one.

BILLS +4 over Dolphins

Last time these teams met, Ronnie Brown, Dick Jauron, and the game being in Florida put the Dolphins at a significant advantage over Buffalo. Each of those advantages is gone. Buffalo has played good first halves in back-to-back weeks, and I expect them to beat Miami on Sunday.

RAMS +4.5 over Seahawks

I expect Seattle to win this one by under a touchdown but really wouldn’t be surprised if Kyle Boller can lead St. Louis to a win. The NFL’s worst teams have made a lot of progress since the season began while Seattle’s offense has been an absolute mess for weeks.

Panthers +3 over JETS

Memo to Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan: You are leading a team in the National Football League. If you want to play tough against Bill Belichick, then you better expect him to try to not only beat you, but to try to humiliate you. You don’t have the right to be offended if you allow yourself to get into a situation where the other team has the game in their control as early as the Patriots did last Sunday. Ryan needs to start letting his team talk for him. While the Giants have dropped five of the last 6, the Jets have dropped 6 of 7. The only way the Jets stop Williams and Stewart without Kris Jenkins is with the help of Carolina’s coaching staff. So who knows?

FALCONS -12 over Buccaneers

Atlanta’s been waiting to get back to the Georgia dome, and Tampa Bay could be just what the doctor ordered. The Falcons have two tough home games after this one and need to demonstrate that they are not ready to fold the season yet. Tampa Bay is going to try to run the ball all day. This should be over by halftime.

Bears +11 over Vikings

If Chicago can stay close long enough in this one, they have a very real shot of upsetting the Vikings. The Bears have really been struggling but remain a much better team than their record. This is going to be a coaching struggle, and that will never bode well for the Vikings.

TITANS -2 over Cardinals

Could this really be the long-awaited Vince Young vs. Matt Leinart rematch? Probably not. I expect Warner to play, but I expect Tennessee to continue to look like they are one of the best teams in football right now. Since starting Young, the Titans have looked really, really good. While Arizona’s success passing the ball should continue against Tennessee’s average pass defense, I’d like to remind you that the Titans limited an even better passing team to 17 points last Monday.

49ERS -3 over Jaguars

I don’t think San Francisco is quite done. Jacksonville has an awfully long trip to get ready for this one. Maybe this will be the week that San Francisco shows its potential on both sides of the ball. Don’t look now, but Jacksonville is 6-2 in their last eight.

CHARGERS -13.5 over Chiefs

The best part about being in the AFC West is that you get to play against other teams in the AFC West. Kansas City has played some tough games at home, but the Chargers should blow them out of the water. Props to Chief’s coach Todd Haley. Despite Larry Johnson’s criticisms about his inexperience, he has done a remarkable job of keeping Chiefs games interesting. If he’s not careful, my tenth preseason prediction might end up not coming true after all… but I like my odds.

RAVENS +3 over Steelers…

But Dennis Dixon scares me. I feel like Baltimore could play him completely the wrong way. A Ravens win here can really put Pittsburgh’s playoff hopes in jeopardy, especially with some help around the conference. Baltimore’s had a lot of bad luck this season between dropped passes and awful special teams play. I expect the Ravens to outplay Pittsburgh in this one from start to finish.

SAINTS -1.5 over Patriots

I think the Saints’ defense matches up much better against New England’s passing attack than vice versa. As I mentioned in my recent article about the Giants' struggles, the Saints need to get Jeremy Shockey involved early and often. That opens up the whole field for Drew Brees. This game will show just how much better the Saints are than the Colts. Memo to Bill Belichick: Next time you run up the score against somebody, remember how much people loved seeing Stanford run it up against USC.