Showing posts with label alisberg. Show all posts
Showing posts with label alisberg. Show all posts

Saturday, September 12, 2009

New York Giants Offense Preview

New York Giants Season Preview


Rushing Offense


The Giants finished the season last year with the most rushing yards of any team while running on the 7th most carries. Brandon Jacobs returns as arguably the best combination of size and speed in any backfield in football. Ahmad Bradshaw, to whom I still credit with the turning point of the Giants' Super Bowl winning campaign with an 88 yard touchdown run in Buffalo, Week 16 of the 2007 season. Look for his career 6.1 yards per carry average to drop in his increased role, but an effective campaign. Danny Ware has the capacity to contribute too. Three talented backs behind such a solid offensive line, and with the devastating blocking ability of Madison Hedgecock give the Giants all the weapons to recreate last year's success.


Passing Offense


The Giants finished the season last year with the 18th most passing yards on the 21st most passing attempts. Despite playing in the toughest division in football, the Giants ranked 7th in team passer rating. Eli Manning returns to lead a young, raw group of Wide Receivers. Expect Domenik Hixon and Hakeem Nicks to alternate as Eli's first option. Steve Smith is also looking to expand on his role as a consistent third down option. 6'6 Ramses Barden adds a threat. Reports from camp indicate that the unproven Mario Manningham gives the offense its most explosive threat after the catch. Kevin Boss is a hard-worker who can block and catch downfield. Factor in Sinorice Moss who seems ready to get more time with the offense after his two first quarter touchdown catches against New England, Derek Hagan, Travis Beckum, and Darcy Johnson give Eli plenty of fresh options throughout the season.


Overall Outlook


The loss of the go-to option in Plaxico Burress is much more tragic off the field than it will be on the field. I remain in the small minority of fans by maintaining that Eli did not fold down the stretch last season. I place the blame on a harder schedule than the Giants had been facing during their 11-1 start and the abysmal play calling of Kevin Gilbride. Don't get me wrong, I think Gilbride has done a phenomenal job meshing the offensive line and deserves to be the Offensive Coordinator, but he can't call plays- which has really hurt the team in two respects. 


I hated the way the Giants utilized their three-headed rushing attack last season. I'd much prefer Jacobs to be the fresh option late in the game when the defense is worn down. I'd really like to see the Giants try to open up the game with Bradshaw getting 60-75% of the work, Jacobs getting a couple of carries, and the occasional carry for Ware. This strategy also gives the Giants a fresh Jacobs in the red zone, which can be a tremendous advantage.


The Giants' past struggles to run an offense up to the potential of its players has lost the team a key weapon who was one of my favorite Giants.e I've been a believer in Kevin Boss since watching him take over for Jeremy Shockey after Shockey fractured his fibula right before the Super Bowl run- but he's not as dangerous on the field as Shockey was and lacks the presence to bring a safety out of the box. Shockey's presence would make defensive coordinators think twice before sending an additional man to play the run this season, especially without Plaxico. Somewhere along the road, the Giants removed Shockey from their game plan and limited him from being the best he could be. I agreed with Shockey every time he publicly announced he felt the team was outcoached. Despite achieving great results the past two seasons, the offense could be better- and should be.


This season, the Giants need to create a more elaborate passing scheme. With such a solid offensive line and intelligent personnel at the "skill positions" the Giants are one of the few teams who can afford to mix it up with overlapping pass routes and delayed screens to Boss, Beckum, and the backs. By waiting until the linebackers blitz or drift into coverage, the Giants can attack the short field effectively and create more manageable third downs- a task I believe is the key to this season. Loaded with talent at every position, the Giants offense can click this season and become really good. I can't wait to see how good the Giants offense can be this year.


NFL Preview

AFC


Playoffs

NE

Hou

SD

Bal


Cin

Buf


In the Hunt

Pitt

Ten

Jax

Cle


Next Year

NYJ

Oak

Ind

Den

Mia

KC


NFC


Playoffs

NYG

Chi

NO

SFO

Was

GB


In the Hunt

Phi

Car

Dal

Sea


Next Year

Min

Ari

Det

Atl

TB

Stl


What's Special About this year?


1. The Houston Texans make the next step. This is the year that Houston becomes the team to beat in the AFC South- not just an underdog that belongs, but the team to beat. Don't be surprised if the Texans win the division and maybe even snag a first round bye.


2. The Indianapolis Colts will not finish above .500. The glory days of Peyton's record-setting seasons have come and gone. I would not be surprised if the Colts finish 4th in the AFC South. They don't have the coaching, offensive line, and sure hands of Marvin Harrison that made this team so dominant for so long.


3. The most competitive division race in football will be the AFC North. Each team has just enough going for them to be competitive every week. The worst team on paper (Cleveland) will beat the best team in the division (Baltimore). Final standings seperate the top from the bottom by three games. Maybe fewer.


4. The most competitive division will continue to be the NFC East. The Dallas Cowboys are one of the twelve best teams in the league, despite being doomed to miss the playoffs again. Six games against the class of the NFL plus one against San Diego is an incredibly difficult season. The NFC East will win at least 38 games collectively, and excel in the postseason.


5. The NFC South will take a step back to mediocrity. I'm not a believer in either Tampa Bay or Atlanta, even though I think Leftwich is going to have a good year. Michael Turner is due for a down year. He will demonstrate that he is not equipped and durable enough to carry the same load. The Panthers and Saints will battle for the division.


6. The Detroit Lions will look like a playoff team on a few weeks this year. They will also look as bad as last year on most weeks. Besides a couple shocking wins against playoff teams, the Lions will have another rebuilding season in Mo-Town.


7. The NFC West is awful. There's not much else to say here. The Rams are a miserable franchise even though I really like Spagnuolo. The Cardinals are dangerous downfield- exactly what you need to excel in a division like the West. Seattle is the only team that can be dangerous in January... but I still don't see it. Look for San Francisco to win the division- at 9-7 or worse.


8. The Eagles made a good decision by signing Michael Vick- but it's not enough. McNabb is not capable of taking this team all the way, especially at this point in his career. Vick adds so much flexibility to the offense and makes Marty Mornhinweg's job probably the most fun in the NFL.


9. The Bears were the winners of the Cutler trade. Rex Grossman would have been a better fit than Orton on over 70% of NFL offenses the past few years. The Bears were in the minority. Cutler will make the Bears very dangerous. The Bears will have one of the best records at midseason, and may even finish with a bye. Denver will struggle against a cupcake schedule and finish behind the Raiders for third in the AFC West. Chris Simms will start a couple games. If Brandon Marshall remains healthy, he will not finish the season with Denver.


10. The teams who play their home games in Missouri will combine to win a single digit number of games.


11. Wade Phillips, Brad Childress, and Raheem Morris will be gone by the end of the season.


12. Carson Palmer is going to be good. Really good. This goes back to a part of the third point I listed. The Bengals are going to have a good season. They started off the '08 campaign with a career backup against a vicious schedule. This year they are back in a situation where they can start off competitively and be a threat to take the AFC North.


13. LaDainian Tomlinson will carry San Diego to the easiest division title since the '07 AFC East. He will do this while commentators refer to him as Tomlinson, not "LT". 


14. One player from each division who will quantifiably outperform expectations: Trent Edwards, Braylon Edwards, Steve Slaton, Darren McFadden, Jason Campbell, Kevin Smith, Jeremy Shockey, Josh Morgan (pending Michael Crabtree's holdout)


15. Players from each division who will quantifiably underperform against expectations: New England Patriots Linebackers, Ben Roethlisberger, Reggie Wayne, Matt Cassel, Donovan McNabb, Steve Hutchinson, Michael Turner, and Chris (Beanie) Wells


16. Commentators will still be struggling to understand technicalities of coach's challenge, even after Week 9.


17. We, as viewers, will be rolling our eyes at the newest line of Bud Light, Miller Lite, and Coors Lite commercials.


18. QBs facing pressure from their backups: T. Edwards (will succeed) M. Sanchez (won't succeed but will keep job) C. Pennington (won't hold job) B. Quinn (will survive when Anderson gets traded... maybe to Denver) K. Collins (won't start every game) K. Orton (won't hold job) M. Cassel (won't hold job) T. Romo (won't succeed but will keep job... at least this year) McNabb (see previous) Favre (will survive while throwing the ball a fraction as often as he's accustomed) Warner (won't hold job)


19. I will consistently pick against the spread at better than 52.5% for the season... and even better in the Playoffs.


20. I will beat ESPN's Bill Simmons with margin for error.


21. On February 7, 2010- my 21st birthday- my New York Giants will win the franchise's fourth Super Bowl, beating Baltimore 24- 10.


Introduction

Welcome to my blog.
 
Week 1 Picks (bodog.com spreads)
My favorite picks are in bold.

Ten +6 over PIT (see twitter.com/alisberg Sep 10 3:08 pm)
BAL -13 over Kc
CAR +3 over Phi
Mia +4 over ATL
CIN -4.5 over Den
CLE +4 over Min
HOU -4.5 over NYJ
Jax +7 over IND
Det +13 over NO
Dal -6 over TB
Sf +6.5 over ARI
NYG -6.5 over Was
SEA -8 over Stl
Chi +4 over GB
Buf +10.5 over NE
OAK +9 over SD

Now for a little bragging to try to convince you to listen to me.
Career ESPN.com Streak to Win Record: 233-211
Career ESPN.com Streak to Win NFL Record: 15-10
Career ESPN.com Streak to Win NFL Record without Preseason games: 8-4
I have never incorrectly picked a Super Bowl with the spread. Since I picked the Patriots to cover against the Rams in 2002, I've been 8-0.
The last two NFL postseasons I'm a combined 19-1-1, the one omission being the Eagles at Giants divisional round last year.

Thank you all for reading my blog. I'll try to respond to any questions at twitter.com/alisberg. I hope everyone enjoys this NFL season as much as I plan to.

I'd like to extend a special thank you to ESPN's Bill Simmons. I've met few people in life who do their jobs as well as they do as the Sports Guy. He helped me realize I want a career in Sports, even if I am 5'10 140. This blog is dedicated to beating Simmons's NFL picks, which I guarantee I will do.

Will